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Movement archive · market facts

What the market did before September 13, 2026

Boxing and UFC — 18 bouts. Below is how each fight’s no-vig fair probability moved between its first and latest capture, with timestamps. These are market facts — what the prices did — not picks, not predictions, and no read on who won.

66 snapshots across 56 days (Jul 20 – Sep 13), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen. Latest capture Sep 13, 00:00 UTC. “Fair” = the book’s margin removed; a truer implied chance, not a forecast.

Biggest market moves

BoxingMark Magsayo vs Andres Cortes

Andres Cortes’s fair probability moved from 41.6% (Aug 25) to 49.1% (Sep 13) — a +7.5 pts shift. Price +125 → -108 across 6 books.

UFCRafa Garcia vs Zhu Rong

Rafa Garcia’s fair probability moved from 46.8% (Sep 1) to 40.7% (Sep 3) — a -6.0 pts shift. Price +105 → +135 across 3 books.

UFCJ.J. Aldrich vs Regina Tarin

J.J. Aldrich’s fair probability moved from 32.9% (Sep 1) to 28.7% (Sep 8) — a -4.2 pts shift. Price +192 → +230 across 7 books.

UFCIgnacio Bahamondes vs Muslim Salikhov

Muslim Salikhov’s fair probability moved from 25.3% (Sep 1) to 21.5% (Sep 3) — a -3.8 pts shift. Price +280 → +350 across 3 books.

UFCTommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki

Marwan Rahiki’s fair probability moved from 38.9% (Sep 1) to 42.3% (Sep 3) — a +3.4 pts shift. Price +149 → +126 across 3 books.

Stable on this slate

These bouts barely moved (under 1.0 fair-prob point). Stated as a finding, not dressed up as movement.

  • Jean Silva vs Jose Delgado — 77.5% / 22.5% fair, -0.9 pts
  • Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Curtis Blaydes — 37.4% / 62.6% fair, -0.9 pts
  • David Martinez vs Dan Ige — 72.0% / 28.0% fair, +0.8 pts
  • Manon Fiorot vs Alexa Grasso — 34.5% / 65.5% fair, +0.4 pts
  • Yousri Belgaroui vs Djorden Santos — 16.2% / 83.8% fair, +0.3 pts
  • Drakkar Klose vs Thomas Gantt — 80.0% / 20.0% fair, -0.1 pts
  • Tim Elliott vs Edgar Chairez — 33.6% / 66.4% fair, -0.1 pts
  • Brandon Moreno vs Joseph Morales — 51.1% / 48.9% fair, 0.0 pts
  • Ramiro Jimenez vs Rodrigo Vera — 44.8% / 55.2% fair, 0.0 pts

Capture by capture — top 3 movers

Andres Cortes (Mark Magsayo vs Andres Cortes)

Aug 25

41.6%

+125 · 4bk

Aug 26

41.6%

+125 · 4bk

Aug 27

41.6%

+125 · 4bk

Aug 28

41.6%

+125 · 4bk

Aug 29

41.6%

+125 · 4bk

Aug 30

41.6%

+125 · 4bk

Aug 31

42.1%

+125 · 4bk

Sep 1

42.8%

+117.5 · 6bk

Sep 2

42.8%

+117.5 · 6bk

Sep 3

44.2%

+111.5 · 6bk

Sep 4

44.2%

+111.5 · 6bk

Sep 5

43.9%

+113 · 5bk

Sep 6

45.8%

+107.5 · 6bk

Sep 7

46.1%

+105 · 6bk

Sep 8

46.6%

+105 · 5bk

Sep 9

51.5%

-123 · 5bk

Sep 10

53.8%

-140 · 5bk

Sep 11

50.8%

-120 · 6bk

Sep 11

50.8%

-120 · 6bk

Sep 11

50.8%

-120 · 6bk

Sep 11

50.8%

-120 · 6bk

Sep 11

50.8%

-120 · 6bk

Sep 12

51.3%

-122.5 · 6bk

Sep 12

50.3%

-115 · 6bk

Sep 12

50.3%

-115 · 6bk

Sep 12

49.2%

-110 · 6bk

Sep 12

49.3%

-110.5 · 6bk

Sep 13

49.1%

-108 · 6bk

Rafa Garcia (Rafa Garcia vs Zhu Rong)

Sep 1

46.8%

+105 · 1bk

Sep 2

44.9%

+118 · 3bk

Sep 3

40.8%

+135 · 3bk

J.J. Aldrich (J.J. Aldrich vs Regina Tarin)

Sep 1

33.0%

+192 · 1bk

Sep 2

33.1%

+190 · 3bk

Sep 3

33.1%

+190 · 3bk

Sep 4

33.1%

+190 · 3bk

Sep 5

33.2%

+190 · 4bk

Sep 6

32.0%

+200 · 7bk

Sep 7

29.1%

+230 · 7bk

Sep 8

28.7%

+230 · 7bk

Full slate — every bout

Consensus no-vig fair probability at first vs latest capture. Bouts with a single capture show the current price only — no movement claim.

BoutFirstLatestFair ΔBooks
Mark Magsayo vs Andres CortesBoxing · Sep 1341.6%+125 · Aug 2549.1%-108 · Sep 13+7.5 pts6
Rafa Garcia vs Zhu RongUFC · Sep 1346.8%+105 · Sep 140.7%+135 · Sep 3-6.0 pts3
J.J. Aldrich vs Regina TarinUFC · Sep 1332.9%+192 · Sep 128.7%+230 · Sep 8-4.2 pts7
Ignacio Bahamondes vs Muslim SalikhovUFC · Sep 1325.3%+280 · Sep 121.5%+350 · Sep 3-3.8 pts3
Tommy McMillen vs Marwan RahikiUFC · Sep 1338.9%+149 · Sep 142.3%+126 · Sep 3+3.4 pts3
Jai Opetaia vs Noel MikaelianBoxing · Sep 1312.7%+643 · Aug 169.7%+900 · Sep 13-3.0 pts5
Jean Silva vs Yair RodriguezUFC · Sep 1372.0%-299 · Aug 574.7%-350 · Aug 13+2.7 pts5
Ryan Garcia vs Conor BennBoxing · Sep 1374.1%-347.5 · Jul 2072.1%-300 · Sep 13-2.0 pts7
Damazion Vanhouter vs Raphael AkpejioriBoxing · Sep 1389.1%-1633.5 · Sep 390.4%-2000 · Sep 13+1.3 pts4
Jean Silva vs Jose DelgadoUFC · Sep 1378.3%-425 · Aug 2377.5%-420 · Sep 13-0.9 pts7
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Curtis BlaydesUFC · Sep 1338.3%+153 · Sep 137.4%+157.5 · Sep 3-0.9 pts2
David Martinez vs Dan IgeUFC · Sep 1371.2%-285 · Sep 172.0%-300 · Sep 3+0.8 pts3
Manon Fiorot vs Alexa GrassoUFC · Sep 1334.1%+183 · Sep 134.5%+178 · Sep 3+0.4 pts3
Yousri Belgaroui vs Djorden SantosUFC · Sep 1315.9%+505 · Sep 116.2%+500 · Sep 3+0.3 pts3
Drakkar Klose vs Thomas GanttUFC · Sep 1380.1%-500 · Sep 180.0%-520 · Sep 8-0.1 pts7
Tim Elliott vs Edgar ChairezUFC · Sep 1333.7%+186 · Sep 133.6%+186 · Sep 3-0.1 pts3
Brandon Moreno vs Joseph MoralesUFC · Sep 1351.1%-115 · Sep 151.1%-115 · Sep 30.0 pts3
Ramiro Jimenez vs Rodrigo VeraUFC · Sep 1344.7%+115 · Sep 144.8%+115 · Sep 30.0 pts3

Showing the side that moved most per bout. 9 bout(s) moved ≥ 1.0 pt · 9 stable · 0 single-capture.

Methodology

  • • Source. An archive of combat-sport prices (UFC + boxing) captured from multiple books over time. 66 snapshots across 56 days (Jul 20 – Sep 13), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen.
  • • Fair probability. Each book’s two-sided price has its margin removed (no-vig), then averaged across books in probability space — never by averaging the American prices. A movement figure needs a complete two-sided price at both captures; single-sided markets show the price only.
  • • Movement. The change in that fair probability between a side’s first and latest capture, in percentage points. A bout with one capture makes no movement claim.
  • • What this is not. Not a pick, not a prediction, no read on why a price moved, and no result — this page does not say who won. Prices move for many reasons; it reports only that they did, and when.

Related: all archived slates · no-vig calculator · parlay vig calculator.

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