+28.7u · 486 decisions · 15 pushes · 501 graded · Every Pick Timestamped
304–182 · 62.6% · 15 pushes · early sample · sport splits ↓
Last graded: Sep 11, 2026
Only picks with a confirmed real final score count. How we grade →
91 spread/run-line picks are quarantined pending de-vig verification (reason: unverified_spread_devig). Nothing is deleted — these rows remain queryable and their count is shown here; they are held out of the record above pending verification.
Record
304–182–15
W–L–P · 501 graded picks
Units P&L
+28.7u
flat-unit basis · +5.7%/pick
Win Rate
62.6%
be ~58.6% · odds-dependent
Tracking Since
Jun 2026
Production grading only
Early sample (486 W+L decisions + 15 pushes = 501 graded total, tracking since Jun 2026). Win rate excludes pushes — standard betting convention; full W–L–P record includes all. Performance fluctuates as volume grows. Past results do not predict future outcomes.
501 graded picks · +28.7u · avg odds -142 · break-even 58.6% · every pick timestamped pre-game
Cumulative Units
+28.88u
Daily Units P&L
Daily Win Rate
Noisy at this sample size. Show to inspect individual-day win rates.
Units and ROI are odds-agnostic. Win% break-even is computed per bucket — not a single ~58.6% line across mixed odds.
| Segment | Picks | W–L–P | Win% | Break-even | Units | ROI/pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Heavy Favorites odds < -110 | 331 | 230–97–4 | 70.3% | ~67.5% | +13.0u | +3.9% |
Standard -110 to +110 | 50 | 30–18–2 | 62.5% | ~52.2% | +10.6u | +21.2% |
Longshots odds > +110 | 120 | 44–67–9 | 39.6% | ~36.8% | +5.2u | +4.4% |
Get the Daily Card
Picks before game time, receipts after — every day.
Green = profitable month. Red = losing month.
79%
Jun 26
54W 14L
63%
Jul 26
84W 50L
58%
Aug 26
100W 72L
59%
Sep 26
66W 46L
Where the model performs. Sample badges indicate data maturity — context before conclusions.
| # | Sport | W–L–P | Win Rate | Units | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Soccer | 32–8–11 | 80.0% | +19.3u | 51 picks Building |
| 2 | UFC | 84–28–0 | 75.0% | +4.9u | 112 picks Established |
| 3 | Boxing | 49–18–3 | 73.1% | +0.4u | 70 picks Maturing |
| 4 | NCAAF | 37–17–1 | 68.5% | +16.4u | 55 picks Building |
| 5 | MLB | 102–110–0 | 48.1% | -12.2u | 212 picks Established |
| 6 | WNBA | 0–1–0 | 0.0% | +0.0u | 1 picks Very Small |
Win rates shown raw. Sample badges: Very Small <15 · Small Sample <30 · Building <60 · Maturing <100.
Closing-line tracking — process diagnostic, not a performance claim. Avg CLV near neutral (+0.69pp, 54% positive) — picks entered at roughly market price. We track this to verify process integrity.
Avg CLV
+0.69pp
vs closing probability
% Positive CLV
54%
close shorter than entry
CLV Picks
366
of 501 graded
25.9u
Max Drawdown
W2
Current Streak
22 in a row
Longest Win Run
-142
Avg Odds
+5.7%
ROI / Pick
+28.7u
Total Units
Lock time proven per pick
Confirmation timestamps are checked against each scheduled start. The Locked column marks the picks that pass; where it cannot be proven, no claim is made.
Graded from official final results
MLB, UFC and soccer are cross-checked automatically against the Odds API and ESPN final scores. Boxing has no automated results feed, so boxing picks are graded manually against published fight results, with the source recorded for each. Every live grade is timestamped.
Source: The Odds API
20+ bookmakers tracked. Consensus odds used for fair value calculation.
Full audit trail
Every pick, confidence score, and odds snapshot is stored permanently in our database.
Live picks only — last 30 results
| Date | Sport | Matchup | Pick | Odds | Close | Final | Result | Locked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | NCAAF | Richmond Spiders vs NC State Wolfpack | NC State Wolfpack -33.5 | -112 | — | 0–73 | W | ✓ |
| 2026-09-11 | NCAAF | Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs Boston College Eagles | Boston College Eagles -3 | -113 | — | 21–28 | W | ✓ |
| 2026-09-11 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 | +155 | -1.5 | 7–4 | L | ✓ |
| 2026-09-11 | NCAAF | Missouri Tigers vs Kansas Jayhawks | Missouri Tigers -4.5 | -111 | — | 38–21 | W | ✓ |
| 2026-09-10 | MLB | Colorado Rockies vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees -1.5 | -132 | -1.5 | 3–10 | W | ✓ |
| 2026-09-10 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves -1.5 | +170 | -1.5 | 1–3 | W | ✓ |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves -1.5 | +166 | -1.5 | 7–2 | L | ✓ |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 | -130 | -1.5 | 1–14 | W | ✓ |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | New York Mets vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins -1.5 | +162 | -1.5 | 15–14 | L | ✓ |
| 2026-09-08 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves +1.5 | -188 | — | 7–1 | L | ✓ |
| 2026-09-08 | MLB | Colorado Rockies vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees -1.5 | -151 | — | 3–5 | W | ✓ |
| 2026-09-08 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 | -145 | — | 2–3 | L | ✓ |
| 2026-09-07 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays vs Athletics | Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 | -125 | -1.5 | 5–6 | L | ✓ |
| 2026-09-07 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles -1.5 | +166 | -1.5 | 4–6 | W | ✓ |
| 2026-09-07 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals +1.5 | -188 | — | 5–4 | W | ✓ |
| 2026-09-07 | MLB | Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 | +164 | -1.5 | 3–4 | L | ✓ |
| 2026-09-07 | MLB | New York Mets vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins -1.5 | +171 | -1.5 | 9–4 | L | ✓ |
| 2026-09-06 | NCAAF | Louisville Cardinals vs Ole Miss Rebels | Ole Miss Rebels -6.5 | -115 | — | 38–41 | L | ✓ |
| 2026-09-06 | NCAAF | Washington State Cougars vs Washington Huskies | Washington Huskies -24 | -109 | — | 10–24 | L | ✓ |
| 2026-09-06 | NCAAF | Wisconsin Badgers vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -21 | -113 | — | 13–41 | W | ✓ |
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Want the next Weekly Fight Card in your inbox? Every card is logged before the event and graded publicly after final.
Methodology: Live published picks only — model backtests are never counted. Picks are logged before game time and graded from official final scores. Wins, losses, and pushes all remain on the ledger.
These notes are a dated history of past corrections. The current record is 304–182 (15 P) · 62.6% · +28.7u.
Restatement — 2026-07-04: a grading bug was found and fixed — spread/run-line picks had been graded against the market consensus line with a default-to-push fallback, which recorded decided picks as pushes. 38 picks were regraded from source-of-record scores. The record was corrected from 45–17 (41 P) · 72.6% · +15.9u to 64–31 (8 P) · 67.4% · +18.1u — the record as it stood on 2026-07-04.
2026-07-04 — Restored six picks that had been manually voided on 2026-06-26, days after their games ended (3 losses, 3 draw-pushes); the 2026-07-04 record moved 67.4% → 65.3% as of that date. Policy: once a pick is published, its result stands — win, lose, or push. Voids are only for picks that never became gradeable.
Void = a pick that never became gradeable — no confirmed betting line or no verified final score (e.g., a canceled or unverifiable game). Voids count neither for nor against the record.
Market/model probabilities on some early soccer picks reflect a since-corrected two-way calculation; win/loss grading was never affected.
† Two picks (Shara Magomedov ML and Asu Almabaev ML, 2026-06-27) were logged at/just after the listed start time. They remain graded and counted, flagged here as not strictly logged-before-start.
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