+25.8u · 188 decisions · 12 pushes · 200 graded · Every Pick Timestamped
129–59 · 68.6% · 12 pushes · early sample · sport splits ↓
Last graded: Jul 27, 2026
Only picks with a confirmed real final score count. How we grade →
91 spread/run-line picks are quarantined pending de-vig verification (reason: unverified_spread_devig). Nothing is deleted — these rows remain queryable and their count is shown here; they are held out of the record above pending verification.
Record
129–59–12
W–L–P · 200 graded picks
Units P&L
+25.8u
flat-unit basis · +12.8%/pick
Win Rate
68.6%
be ~58.2% · odds-dependent
Tracking Since
Jun 2026
Production grading only
Early sample (188 W+L decisions + 12 pushes = 200 graded total, tracking since Jun 2026). Win rate excludes pushes — standard betting convention; full W–L–P record includes all. Performance fluctuates as volume grows. Past results do not predict future outcomes.
201 graded picks · +25.8u · avg odds -139 · break-even 58.2% · every pick timestamped pre-game
Cumulative Units
+25.78u
Daily Units P&L
Daily Win Rate
Noisy at this sample size. Show to inspect individual-day win rates.
Units and ROI are odds-agnostic. Win% break-even is computed per bucket — not a single ~58.2% line across mixed odds.
| Segment | Picks | W–L–P | Win% | Break-even | Units | ROI/pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Heavy Favorites odds < -110 | 133 | 99–33–1 | 75.0% | ~68.3% | +10.9u | +8.2% |
Standard -110 to +110 | 14 | 9–3–2 | Building · 12/30 | ~53.6% | +4.0u | +28.8% |
Longshots odds > +110 | 54 | 21–24–9 | 46.7% | ~34.5% | +10.8u | +20.0% |
Get the Daily Card
One free pick a day, before game time
Green = profitable month. Red = losing month.
79%
Jun 26
54W 14L
62%
Jul 26
75W 46L
Where the model performs. Sample badges indicate data maturity — context before conclusions.
| # | Sport | W–L–P | Win Rate | Units | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UFC | 43–10–0 | 81.1% | +6.1u | 53 picks Building |
| 2 | Soccer | 32–8–11 | 80.0% | +19.3u | 51 picks Building |
| 3 | Boxing | 20–6–1 | 76.9% | +4.4u | 27 picks Small Sample |
| 4 | MLB | 34–35–0 | 49.3% | -4.0u | 69 picks Maturing |
| 5 | WNBA | 0–1–0 | 0.0% | +0.0u | 1 picks Very Small |
Win rates shown raw. Sample badges: Very Small <15 · Small Sample <30 · Building <60 · Maturing <100.
Closing-line tracking — process diagnostic, not a performance claim. Avg CLV near neutral (+0.51pp, 52% positive) — picks entered at roughly market price. We track this to verify process integrity.
Avg CLV
+0.51pp
vs closing probability
% Positive CLV
52%
picks beating close
CLV Picks
184
of 201 graded
8.7u
Max Drawdown
L2
Current Streak
18 in a row
Longest Win Run
-139
Avg Odds
+12.8%
ROI / Pick
+25.8u
Total Units
Logged before game time
All picks are timestamped in Supabase before the scheduled game start.
Graded from ESPN scores
Results cross-checked against ESPN final scores. No manual override.
Source: The Odds API
20+ bookmakers tracked. Consensus odds used for fair value calculation.
Full audit trail
Every pick, confidence score, and odds snapshot is stored permanently in our database.
Live picks only — last 30 results
| Date | Sport | Matchup | Pick | Odds | Close | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers -1.5 | +170 | -1.5 | 8–5 | L |
| 2026-07-27 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 | +168 | -1.5 | 2–3 | L |
| 2026-07-26 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants +1.5 | -185 | 1.5 | 4–3 | W |
| 2026-07-26 | MLB | Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers +1.5 | -202 | -1.5 | 6–4 | L |
| 2026-07-26 | MLB | Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 | -155 | -1.5 | 2–11 | W |
| 2026-07-26 | MLB | Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox +1.5 | -181 | -1.5 | 3–12 | W |
| 2026-07-26 | MLB | Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles +1.5 | -183 | 1.5 | 3–2 | W |
| 2026-07-25 | UFC | Saygid Izagakhmaev vs Abubakar Vagaev | Abubakar Vagaev ML | -243 | — | 0–1 | W |
| 2026-07-25 | UFC | Bogdan Guskov vs Magomed Ankalaev | Magomed Ankalaev ML | -560 | — | 0–1 | W |
| 2026-07-25 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox +1.5 | -195 | -1.5 | 6–0 | L |
| 2026-07-25 | MLB | Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox -1.5 | +160 | -1.5 | 4–1 | L |
| 2026-07-25 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 | -191 | -1.5 | 0–7 | W |
| 2026-07-25 | UFC | Mike Davis vs Nurullo Aliev | Nurullo Aliev ML | -234 | — | 0–1 | W |
| 2026-07-25 | UFC | Ramazonbek Temirov vs Stephen Erceg | Ramazonbek Temirov ML | -108 | — | 1–0 | W |
| 2026-07-25 | UFC | Axel Sola vs Ismael Bonfim | Axel Sola ML | -197 | — | 1–0 | W |
| 2026-07-25 | UFC | Damian Rzepecki vs Magomed Zaynukov | Magomed Zaynukov ML | -277 | — | 0–1 | W |
| 2026-07-25 | UFC | Tyrell Fortune vs Rizvan Kuniev | Rizvan Kuniev ML | -336 | — | 0–1 | W |
| 2026-07-25 | UFC | Muhammad Said vs Dustin Jacoby | Dustin Jacoby ML | -179 | — | 1–0 | L |
| 2026-07-25 | UFC | Abdul Hussein vs Cody Gibson | Abdul Hussein ML | -601 | — | 1–0 | W |
| 2026-07-25 | MLB | Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles +1.5 | -188 | -1.5 | 2–3 | W |
You just read the receipt.
Want the next Weekly Fight Card in your inbox? Every card is logged before the event and graded publicly after final.
Methodology: Live published picks only — model backtests are never counted. Picks are logged before game time and graded from official final scores. Wins, losses, and pushes all remain on the ledger.
These notes are a dated history of past corrections. The current record is 129–59 (12 P) · 68.6% · +25.8u.
Restatement — 2026-07-04: a grading bug was found and fixed — spread/run-line picks had been graded against the market consensus line with a default-to-push fallback, which recorded decided picks as pushes. 38 picks were regraded from source-of-record scores. The record was corrected from 45–17 (41 P) · 72.6% · +15.9u to 64–31 (8 P) · 67.4% · +18.1u — the record as it stood on 2026-07-04.
2026-07-04 — Restored six picks that had been manually voided on 2026-06-26, days after their games ended (3 losses, 3 draw-pushes); the 2026-07-04 record moved 67.4% → 65.3% as of that date. Policy: once a pick is published, its result stands — win, lose, or push. Voids are only for picks that never became gradeable.
Void = a pick that never became gradeable — no confirmed betting line or no verified final score (e.g., a canceled or unverifiable game). Voids count neither for nor against the record.
Market/model probabilities on some early soccer picks reflect a since-corrected two-way calculation; win/loss grading was never affected.
† Two picks (Shara Magomedov ML and Asu Almabaev ML, 2026-06-27) were logged at/just after the listed start time. They remain graded and counted, flagged here as not strictly logged-before-start.
For entertainment purposes only · 21+ · Gambling involves risk · 1-800-522-4700