Receipt for one NFL pick. Published 4 October 2026, 08:00 UTC. Graded 4 October 2026, 16:45 UTC.
Indianapolis Colts -4.5 confirmed 5 h 31 min before kickoff; graded a win, 30–13
Spread, Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders, consensus of 2–11 books via The Odds API, 1434 price snapshots from 26 August 2026 to 4 October 2026, 8 anchor cells (eu, us)
Source: SharpUnit pick record; event clock and odds from The Odds API; score from ESPN scoreboard.
SharpUnit published Indianapolis Colts -4.5 (-110) at 08:00 UTC on 4 October 2026, 5 h 31 min before kickoff (kickoff 13:32 UTC, 4 October 2026); the pick graded a win, final 30–13.
Source: SharpUnit pick record; event clock and odds from The Odds API; score from ESPN scoreboard.
What this receipt does not establish
Every field on this receipt was observed. Nothing here is inferred.
Shorthand: [x] not available, [z] not applicable, [w] none recorded, [u] not provable, [p] provisional. Each is computed from the stored rows for this pick, not written by hand.
This receipt describes one pick. It carries no forecast, makes no claim about any other pick, and is not a recommendation.
SharpUnit, sharp-unit.com/artifact/34b27ae8. Source: SharpUnit pick record; event clock and odds from The Odds API; score from ESPN scoreboard. Graded 4 Oct 2026.
The pick, its price and its close
| Field | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Line at publish | -4.5 | |
| Close | -4.5 | |
| Closing line value | +1.27pp against Pinnacle | |
| Confirmed | 4 October 2026, 08:00 UTC | |
| Scheduled start | 4 October 2026, 13:32 UTC | |
| Lock | Locked before game time, 5 h 31 min before kickoff | Locked before game time — the confirmation timestamp precedes the scheduled start. |
SharpUnit, sharp-unit.com/artifact/34b27ae8. Source: SharpUnit pick record; The Odds API. Graded 4 Oct 2026.
How the consensus spread moved
Consensus spread moved +1.14 pts · T-72h→close (72h) across 4 capture anchors.
The consensus spread moved 1.14 points, from +3.68 to +4.82 on the home side between 72 hours before kickoff and the close. That magnitude ranks in the 83rd percentile of 1,418 NFL T-72h→close moves in this corpus (The Odds API historical endpoint, US-region books, 10–19 responding per season), 2021–2025 seasons. A rank within this corpus, not a cause.
| Anchor | Region | Requested (UTC) | Drift (s) | Books | Home spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T-72h | eu | 1 October 2026, 13:30 UTC | -48 | 22 | +3.59 |
| T-72h | us | 1 October 2026, 13:30 UTC | -48 | 11 | +3.68 |
| T-24h | eu | 3 October 2026, 13:30 UTC | -48 | 22 | +4.38 |
| T-24h | us | 3 October 2026, 13:30 UTC | -48 | 11 | +4.18 |
| T-3h | eu | 4 October 2026, 10:30 UTC | -48 | 22 | +4.50 |
| T-3h | us | 4 October 2026, 10:30 UTC | -48 | 11 | +4.50 |
| close | eu | 4 October 2026, 13:15 UTC | -49 | 22 | +4.74 |
| close | us | 4 October 2026, 13:15 UTC | -49 | 11 | +4.82 |
Drift is the vendor's returned instant minus the requested anchor, in seconds. Generations present: live-anchored-v1.
6 anchored snapshots between first observed and close; net move -1.8 pp (de-vigged, home side).
See the six-mark de-vigged series for this game
SharpUnit, sharp-unit.com/artifact/34b27ae8. Source: The Odds API historical endpoint, captured by SharpUnit. Last snapshot 4 Oct 2026.
Where this pick sits
This pick is one of 841 graded picks in the public record (17 Jun – 4 Oct 2026: 482–339–20). See the record.
This pick is part of the public record shown here.
SharpUnit, sharp-unit.com/artifact/34b27ae8. Source: SharpUnit pick record (pick_stats). As of 4 Oct 2026.
Provenance
Rows read: pick 34b27ae8-530e-4dce-888c-dfa05212629a, market c213861a-0075-4e49-b3f2-ce417a0c5d8d, 1434 price snapshots (26 Aug 2026 to 4 Oct 2026), 8 anchor cells (live-anchored-v1). Contract v1, generated 4 October 2026, 19:32 UTC. Score source: espn:football/nfl/20261004.
How every field on this page is derived: the method. The compact receipt for this pick: sharp-unit.com/receipt/34b27ae8. Timestamp checked per pick · graded in public.
SharpUnit, sharp-unit.com/artifact/34b27ae8. Source: SharpUnit pick record; event clock and odds from The Odds API; score from ESPN scoreboard.