Movement archive · market facts
What the market did before September 15, 2026
UFC — 5 bouts. Below is how each fight’s no-vig fair probability moved between its first and latest capture, with timestamps. These are market facts — what the prices did — not picks, not predictions, and no read on who won.
12 snapshots across 4 days (Sep 12 – Sep 15), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen. Latest capture Sep 15, 18:00 UTC. “Fair” = the book’s margin removed; a truer implied chance, not a forecast.
Biggest market moves
Mayton Perea’s fair probability moved from 46.3% (Sep 12) to 52.7% (Sep 15) — a +6.4 pts shift. Price +107 → -120 across 3 books.
Igor Cavalcanti’s fair probability moved from 74.7% (Sep 12) to 68.9% (Sep 15) — a -5.9 pts shift. Price -350 → -255 across 3 books.
Tyshawn Williams’s fair probability moved from 72.1% (Sep 12) to 70.2% (Sep 15) — a -1.9 pts shift. Price -300 → -260 across 3 books.
Stable on this slate
These bouts barely moved (under 1.0 fair-prob point). Stated as a finding, not dressed up as movement.
- Ednilson Santos vs Akbar Abdullaev — 9.0% / 91.0% fair, +0.6 pts
- Hugo Guillon vs Luis Hernandez — 38.7% / 61.3% fair, +0.4 pts
Capture by capture — top 3 movers
Mayton Perea (Mayton Perea vs Zevan Hunt)
Sep 12
46.3%
+107 · 1bk
Sep 13
45.6%
+111 · 1bk
Sep 14
51.6%
-115 · 1bk
Sep 14
52.5%
-120 · 1bk
Sep 14
52.5%
-120 · 1bk
Sep 14
52.4%
-121 · 2bk
Sep 14
52.4%
-121 · 2bk
Sep 15
52.9%
-122 · 3bk
Sep 15
52.3%
-120 · 3bk
Sep 15
52.7%
-120 · 3bk
Sep 15
52.7%
-120 · 3bk
Igor Cavalcanti (Igor Cavalcanti vs Oscar Ravello)
Sep 12
74.7%
-350 · 1bk
Sep 13
74.2%
-335 · 1bk
Sep 14
74.2%
-335 · 1bk
Sep 14
74.2%
-335 · 1bk
Sep 14
74.2%
-335 · 1bk
Sep 14
74.2%
-345 · 2bk
Sep 14
74.2%
-345 · 2bk
Sep 15
72.4%
-300 · 3bk
Sep 15
69.5%
-270 · 3bk
Sep 15
68.8%
-270 · 3bk
Sep 15
68.9%
-255 · 3bk
Tyshawn Williams (Antonio Monteiro vs Tyshawn Williams)
Sep 12
72.1%
-300 · 1bk
Sep 13
73.1%
-315 · 1bk
Sep 14
73.6%
-325 · 1bk
Sep 14
73.6%
-325 · 1bk
Sep 14
73.6%
-325 · 1bk
Sep 14
72.8%
-317.5 · 2bk
Sep 14
72.4%
-310 · 2bk
Sep 15
71.5%
-285 · 3bk
Sep 15
70.9%
-285 · 3bk
Sep 15
70.1%
-285 · 3bk
Sep 15
70.5%
-285 · 3bk
Sep 15
70.2%
-260 · 3bk
Full slate — every bout
Consensus no-vig fair probability at first vs latest capture. Bouts with a single capture show the current price only — no movement claim.
| Bout | First | Latest | Fair Δ | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mayton Perea vs Zevan HuntUFC · Sep 15 | 46.3%+107 · Sep 12 | 52.7%-120 · Sep 15 | +6.4 pts | 3 |
| Igor Cavalcanti vs Oscar RavelloUFC · Sep 15 | 74.7%-350 · Sep 12 | 68.9%-255 · Sep 15 | -5.9 pts | 3 |
| Antonio Monteiro vs Tyshawn WilliamsUFC · Sep 15 | 72.1%-300 · Sep 12 | 70.2%-260 · Sep 15 | -1.9 pts | 3 |
| Ednilson Santos vs Akbar AbdullaevUFC · Sep 15 | 8.4%+1041 · Sep 12 | 9.0%+964 · Sep 15 | +0.6 pts | 2 |
| Hugo Guillon vs Luis HernandezUFC · Sep 15 | 38.3%+153 · Sep 12 | 38.7%+145 · Sep 15 | +0.4 pts | 3 |
Showing the side that moved most per bout. 3 bout(s) moved ≥ 1.0 pt · 2 stable · 0 single-capture.
Methodology
- • Source. An archive of combat-sport prices (UFC + boxing) captured from multiple books over time. 12 snapshots across 4 days (Sep 12 – Sep 15), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen.
- • Fair probability. Each book’s two-sided price has its margin removed (no-vig), then averaged across books in probability space — never by averaging the American prices. A movement figure needs a complete two-sided price at both captures; single-sided markets show the price only.
- • Movement. The change in that fair probability between a side’s first and latest capture, in percentage points. A bout with one capture makes no movement claim.
- • What this is not. Not a pick, not a prediction, no read on why a price moved, and no result — this page does not say who won. Prices move for many reasons; it reports only that they did, and when.
Related: all archived slates · no-vig calculator · parlay vig calculator.
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