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Movement archive · market facts

What the market did before September 19, 2026

Boxing and UFC — 34 bouts. Below is how each fight’s no-vig fair probability moved between its first and latest capture, with timestamps. These are market facts — what the prices did — not picks, not predictions, and no read on who won.

48 snapshots across 36 days (Aug 15 – Sep 19), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen. Latest capture Sep 19, 18:00 UTC. “Fair” = the book’s margin removed; a truer implied chance, not a forecast.

Biggest market moves

UFCDevon Lozej vs Davi Bittencourt

Devon Lozej’s fair probability moved from 56.2% (Sep 15) to 69.8% (Sep 19) — a +13.6 pts shift. Price -140 → -265 across 1 book.

UFCTefan Vojcak vs Marcin Wojcik

Tefan Vojcak’s fair probability moved from 60.7% (Sep 17) to 71.5% (Sep 19) — a +10.8 pts shift. Price -180 → -290 across 1 book.

BoxingKieron Conway vs Mark Jeffers

Kieron Conway’s fair probability moved from 60.2% (Sep 4) to 53.2% (Sep 19) — a -7.0 pts shift. Price -175.5 → -130 across 6 books.

UFCMuslim Tulshaev vs Kacper Koziorzębski

Muslim Tulshaev’s fair probability moved from 65.9% (Sep 17) to 72.7% (Sep 19) — a +6.8 pts shift. Price -250 → -310 across 1 book.

UFCJoo Sang Yoo vs Michael Aswell

Joo Sang Yoo’s fair probability moved from 69.4% (Sep 15) to 63.2% (Sep 19) — a -6.2 pts shift. Price -265 → -194 across 7 books.

Stable on this slate

These bouts barely moved (under 1.0 fair-prob point). Stated as a finding, not dressed up as movement.

  • John Hedges vs Pat Brown — 83.3% / 16.7% fair, +0.6 pts
  • Lazaro Lorenzana vs Marcos Vazquez — 91.0% / 9.0% fair, +0.6 pts
  • Tom Rafferty vs Liam Walsh — 10.7% / 89.3% fair, -0.4 pts
  • Bryce Meredith vs Movlid Khaybulaev — 80.1% / 19.9% fair, -0.4 pts
  • Robert Gurrero vs Shawn Rall — 10.6% / 89.4% fair, +0.4 pts
  • Jack Power vs Victor Ionascu — 8.0% / 92.0% fair, -0.3 pts
  • Joe Howarth vs Josh Holmes — 73.4% / 26.6% fair, -0.2 pts
  • Jesus Alejandro Ramos Jr vs Meiirim Nursultanov — 18.8% / 81.2% fair, 0.0 pts

Capture by capture — top 3 movers

Devon Lozej (Devon Lozej vs Davi Bittencourt)

Sep 15

56.2%

-140 · 1bk

Sep 16

59.6%

-160 · 1bk

Sep 17

59.2%

-157 · 1bk

Sep 17

59.2%

-157 · 1bk

Sep 17

59.0%

-156 · 1bk

Sep 17

59.0%

-156 · 1bk

Sep 18

62.0%

-177 · 1bk

Sep 19

69.8%

-265 · 1bk

Tefan Vojcak (Tefan Vojcak vs Marcin Wojcik)

Sep 17

60.7%

-180 · 1bk

Sep 17

63.8%

-210 · 1bk

Sep 18

63.8%

-210 · 1bk

Sep 18

63.8%

-210 · 1bk

Sep 18

63.8%

-210 · 1bk

Sep 18

63.8%

-210 · 1bk

Sep 18

63.8%

-210 · 1bk

Sep 19

68.7%

-250 · 1bk

Sep 19

71.5%

-290 · 1bk

Sep 19

71.5%

-290 · 1bk

Sep 19

71.5%

-290 · 1bk

Kieron Conway (Kieron Conway vs Mark Jeffers)

Sep 4

60.2%

-175.5 · 2bk

Sep 5

57.5%

-151 · 4bk

Sep 6

57.5%

-151 · 4bk

Sep 7

57.5%

-151 · 4bk

Sep 8

57.5%

-151 · 4bk

Sep 9

57.5%

-152 · 5bk

Sep 10

57.5%

-152 · 5bk

Sep 11

57.5%

-152 · 5bk

Sep 12

57.5%

-152 · 5bk

Sep 13

57.5%

-152 · 5bk

Sep 14

58.6%

-170 · 5bk

Sep 15

59.0%

-170 · 5bk

Sep 16

58.0%

-155 · 6bk

Sep 17

58.3%

-157.5 · 6bk

Sep 18

55.6%

-141 · 6bk

Sep 18

55.8%

-143.5 · 6bk

Sep 18

55.8%

-143.5 · 6bk

Sep 18

55.6%

-141 · 6bk

Sep 18

55.6%

-141 · 6bk

Sep 19

53.7%

-134.5 · 6bk

Sep 19

52.7%

-129.5 · 6bk

Sep 19

52.7%

-129.5 · 6bk

Sep 19

54.1%

-134.5 · 6bk

Sep 19

53.2%

-130 · 6bk

Full slate — every bout

Consensus no-vig fair probability at first vs latest capture. Bouts with a single capture show the current price only — no movement claim.

BoutFirstLatestFair ΔBooks
Devon Lozej vs Davi BittencourtUFC · Sep 1956.2%-140 · Sep 1569.8%-265 · Sep 19+13.6 pts1
Tefan Vojcak vs Marcin WojcikUFC · Sep 1960.7%-180 · Sep 1771.5%-290 · Sep 19+10.8 pts1
Kieron Conway vs Mark JeffersBoxing · Sep 1960.2%-175.5 · Sep 453.2%-130 · Sep 19-7.0 pts6
Muslim Tulshaev vs Kacper KoziorzębskiUFC · Sep 1965.9%-250 · Sep 1772.7%-310 · Sep 19+6.8 pts1
Joo Sang Yoo vs Michael AswellUFC · Sep 1969.4%-265 · Sep 1563.2%-194 · Sep 19-6.2 pts7
Joe Howarth vs Cory O'ReganBoxing · Sep 1963.9%-200 · Sep 1758.6%-172.5 · Sep 19-5.3 pts6
Casey O'Neill vs Eduarda MouraUFC · Sep 1938.4%+150 · Sep 433.3%+190 · Sep 19-5.1 pts7
Lukasz Charzewski vs Josef StummerUFC · Sep 1938.4%+145 · Sep 1742.9%+125 · Sep 19+4.5 pts1
Edmen Shahbazyan vs Brunno FerreiraUFC · Sep 1958.4%-155 · Sep 462.4%-190 · Sep 19+4.0 pts7
Giga Chikadze vs Joanderson BritoUFC · Sep 1925.6%+275 · Sep 422.2%+335 · Sep 19-3.4 pts7
Borys Dzikowski vs Adrian DudekUFC · Sep 1946.2%+100 · Sep 1742.9%+125 · Sep 19-3.3 pts1
Shabaz Masoud vs Ckari Cani MansillaBoxing · Sep 1986.5%-1125 · Sep 489.4%-1625 · Sep 19+2.9 pts6
Luke Rockhold vs Joseph PyferUFC · Sep 1911.6%+700 · Sep 168.7%+1000 · Sep 18-2.9 pts1
Leo Brichta vs Kacper FormelaUFC · Sep 1949.1%-115 · Sep 1746.8%+105 · Sep 19-2.3 pts1
Khamzat Chimaev vs Gilbert BurnsUFC · Sep 1992.7%-5000 · Sep 1694.9%-10000 · Sep 19+2.2 pts1
Alfie Middlemiss vs Gerard HughesBoxing · Sep 1984.1%-800 · Sep 1686.2%-1100 · Sep 18+2.1 pts3
Tai Tuivasa vs Robelis DespaigneUFC · Sep 1917.9%+460 · Sep 416.0%+500 · Sep 16-1.8 pts7
Michal Michalski vs Radoslaw PaczuskiUFC · Sep 1946.2%+100 · Sep 1747.8%+100 · Sep 19+1.7 pts1
Lorenzo Simpson vs Shawn McCalmanBoxing · Sep 1960.5%-175 · Sep 1859.1%-166 · Sep 19-1.5 pts5
Isaac Cruz vs Nestor BravoBoxing · Sep 1916.7%+467.5 · Aug 1517.9%+400 · Sep 12+1.3 pts5
Garan Croft vs Mohammed GraichBoxing · Sep 198.8%+955 · Sep 167.7%+1216.5 · Sep 19-1.1 pts6
Ozzy Diaz vs Ryan GandraUFC · Sep 1920.4%+375.5 · Sep 1519.5%+390 · Sep 19-1.0 pts7
Shuya Kamikubo vs Marcos BrenoUFC · Sep 1934.9%+177 · Sep 1535.9%+170 · Sep 19+1.0 pts1
Eumir Marcial vs Omar Ulises HuertaBoxing · Sep 1914.5%+550 · Sep 1615.6%+517.5 · Sep 18+1.0 pts6
Colby Covington vs Belal MuhammadUFC · Sep 1913.2%+600 · Sep 1612.2%+686 · Sep 19-1.0 pts1
John Hedges vs Pat BrownBoxing · Sep 1982.7%-687.5 · Sep 483.3%-650 · Sep 19+0.6 pts5
Lazaro Lorenzana vs Marcos VazquezBoxing · Sep 1990.3%-2250 · Sep 1791.0%-2500 · Sep 19+0.6 pts4
Tom Rafferty vs Liam WalshBoxing · Sep 1911.1%+750 · Sep 1610.7%+735 · Sep 19-0.4 pts6
Bryce Meredith vs Movlid KhaybulaevUFC · Sep 1980.5%-650 · Sep 1680.1%-500 · Sep 18-0.4 pts1
Robert Gurrero vs Shawn RallBoxing · Sep 1910.1%+817 · Sep 1710.6%+775 · Sep 19+0.4 pts6
Jack Power vs Victor IonascuBoxing · Sep 198.3%+1050 · Sep 168.0%+1121.5 · Sep 19-0.3 pts6
Joe Howarth vs Josh HolmesBoxing · Sep 1973.5%-350 · Sep 1673.4%-370 · Sep 18-0.2 pts1
Jesus Alejandro Ramos Jr vs Meiirim NursultanovBoxing · Sep 1918.8%+416 · Sep 1918.8%+416 · Sep 190.0 pts3
Brian Ortega vs Renato MoicanoUFC · Sep 19 · 1 capture65.6%-215 · Sep 1565.6%-215 · Sep 15—1

Showing the side that moved most per bout. 25 bout(s) moved ≥ 1.0 pt · 8 stable · 1 single-capture.

Methodology

  • • Source. An archive of combat-sport prices (UFC + boxing) captured from multiple books over time. 48 snapshots across 36 days (Aug 15 – Sep 19), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen.
  • • Fair probability. Each book’s two-sided price has its margin removed (no-vig), then averaged across books in probability space — never by averaging the American prices. A movement figure needs a complete two-sided price at both captures; single-sided markets show the price only.
  • • Movement. The change in that fair probability between a side’s first and latest capture, in percentage points. A bout with one capture makes no movement claim.
  • • What this is not. Not a pick, not a prediction, no read on why a price moved, and no result — this page does not say who won. Prices move for many reasons; it reports only that they did, and when.

Related: all archived slates · no-vig calculator · parlay vig calculator.

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