Movement archive · market facts
What the market did before September 22, 2026
UFC — 3 bouts. Below is how each fight’s no-vig fair probability moved between its first and latest capture, with timestamps. These are market facts — what the prices did — not picks, not predictions, and no read on who won.
10 snapshots across 2 days (Sep 21 – Sep 22), 5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen. Latest capture Sep 22, 18:00 UTC. “Fair” = the book’s margin removed; a truer implied chance, not a forecast.
Biggest market moves
Damian Piwowarczyk’s fair probability moved from 52.1% (Sep 21) to 56.2% (Sep 22) — a +4.1 pts shift. Price -118 → -145 across 3 books.
Stable on this slate
These bouts barely moved (under 1.0 fair-prob point). Stated as a finding, not dressed up as movement.
- Piero Guaylupo vs Callum Connor — 49.0% / 51.0% fair, +0.7 pts
- Norbert Novenyi Jr. vs Theo Haig — 20.7% / 79.3% fair, -0.5 pts
Capture by capture — top 3 movers
Damian Piwowarczyk (Emilio Quissua vs Damian Piwowarczyk)
Sep 21
52.1%
-118 · 1bk
Sep 21
50.6%
-110 · 3bk
Sep 21
50.8%
-110 · 3bk
Sep 21
51.4%
-114 · 3bk
Sep 21
52.6%
-128 · 3bk
Sep 22
53.0%
-124 · 3bk
Sep 22
52.5%
-120 · 3bk
Sep 22
53.0%
-126 · 3bk
Sep 22
53.0%
-126 · 3bk
Sep 22
56.2%
-145 · 3bk
Full slate — every bout
Consensus no-vig fair probability at first vs latest capture. Bouts with a single capture show the current price only — no movement claim.
| Bout | First | Latest | Fair Δ | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emilio Quissua vs Damian PiwowarczykUFC · Sep 22 | 52.1%-118 · Sep 21 | 56.2%-145 · Sep 22 | +4.1 pts | 3 |
| Piero Guaylupo vs Callum ConnorUFC · Sep 22 | 48.2%+100 · Sep 22 | 49.0%-104 · Sep 22 | +0.7 pts | 3 |
| Norbert Novenyi Jr. vs Theo HaigUFC · Sep 22 | 21.2%+354 · Sep 21 | 20.7%+350 · Sep 22 | -0.5 pts | 3 |
Showing the side that moved most per bout. 1 bout(s) moved ≥ 1.0 pt · 2 stable · 0 single-capture.
Methodology
- • Source. An archive of combat-sport prices (UFC + boxing) captured from multiple books over time. 10 snapshots across 2 days (Sep 21 – Sep 22), 5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen.
- • Fair probability. Each book’s two-sided price has its margin removed (no-vig), then averaged across books in probability space — never by averaging the American prices. A movement figure needs a complete two-sided price at both captures; single-sided markets show the price only.
- • Movement. The change in that fair probability between a side’s first and latest capture, in percentage points. A bout with one capture makes no movement claim.
- • What this is not. Not a pick, not a prediction, no read on why a price moved, and no result — this page does not say who won. Prices move for many reasons; it reports only that they did, and when.
Related: all archived slates · no-vig calculator · parlay vig calculator.
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