Movement archive · market facts
What the market did before September 23, 2026
Boxing and UFC — 4 bouts. Below is how each fight’s no-vig fair probability moved between its first and latest capture, with timestamps. These are market facts — what the prices did — not picks, not predictions, and no read on who won.
14 snapshots across 7 days (Sep 17 – Sep 23), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen. Latest capture Sep 23, 06:00 UTC. “Fair” = the book’s margin removed; a truer implied chance, not a forecast.
Biggest market moves
Kyonosuke Kameda’s fair probability moved from 25.1% (Sep 17) to 20.3% (Sep 23) — a -4.8 pts shift. Price +269 → +366 across 4 books.
Alvi Dasuyev’s fair probability moved from 67.2% (Sep 22) to 69.5% (Sep 23) — a +2.3 pts shift. Price -235 → -265 across 3 books.
Stable on this slate
These bouts barely moved (under 1.0 fair-prob point). Stated as a finding, not dressed up as movement.
- Paris Moran vs Marcos Degli — 77.8% / 22.2% fair, +0.8 pts
Capture by capture — top 3 movers
Kyonosuke Kameda (Kyonosuke Kameda vs Sebastian Hernandez)
Sep 17
25.1%
+269 · 4bk
Sep 18
24.6%
+284.5 · 4bk
Sep 19
23.4%
+292 · 4bk
Sep 20
21.9%
+340 · 4bk
Sep 21
21.9%
+340 · 4bk
Sep 21
20.9%
+345 · 4bk
Sep 21
20.9%
+345 · 4bk
Sep 22
20.9%
+345 · 4bk
Sep 22
20.9%
+345 · 4bk
Sep 22
20.9%
+345 · 4bk
Sep 22
19.9%
+370 · 4bk
Sep 22
20.4%
+345 · 4bk
Sep 23
21.4%
+340 · 4bk
Sep 23
20.3%
+366 · 4bk
Alvi Dasuyev (Alvi Dasuyev vs Jaden Ortega)
Sep 22
67.2%
-235 · 3bk
Sep 22
68.2%
-250 · 3bk
Sep 23
69.5%
-265 · 3bk
Full slate — every bout
Consensus no-vig fair probability at first vs latest capture. Bouts with a single capture show the current price only — no movement claim.
| Bout | First | Latest | Fair Δ | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyonosuke Kameda vs Sebastian HernandezBoxing · Sep 23 | 25.1%+269 · Sep 17 | 20.3%+366 · Sep 23 | -4.8 pts | 4 |
| Alvi Dasuyev vs Jaden OrtegaUFC · Sep 23 | 67.2%-235 · Sep 22 | 69.5%-265 · Sep 23 | +2.3 pts | 3 |
| Paris Moran vs Marcos DegliUFC · Sep 23 | 77.1%-402.5 · Sep 22 | 77.8%-450 · Sep 23 | +0.8 pts | 3 |
| Norbert Novenyi Jr. vs Theo HaigUFC · Sep 23 · 1 capture | 79.6%-500 · Sep 23 | 79.6%-500 · Sep 23 | — | 3 |
Showing the side that moved most per bout. 2 bout(s) moved ≥ 1.0 pt · 1 stable · 1 single-capture.
Methodology
- • Source. An archive of combat-sport prices (UFC + boxing) captured from multiple books over time. 14 snapshots across 7 days (Sep 17 – Sep 23), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen.
- • Fair probability. Each book’s two-sided price has its margin removed (no-vig), then averaged across books in probability space — never by averaging the American prices. A movement figure needs a complete two-sided price at both captures; single-sided markets show the price only.
- • Movement. The change in that fair probability between a side’s first and latest capture, in percentage points. A bout with one capture makes no movement claim.
- • What this is not. Not a pick, not a prediction, no read on why a price moved, and no result — this page does not say who won. Prices move for many reasons; it reports only that they did, and when.
Related: all archived slates · no-vig calculator · parlay vig calculator.
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