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Movement archive · market facts

What the market did before October 3, 2026

Boxing and UFC — 25 bouts. Below is how each fight’s no-vig fair probability moved between its first and latest capture, with timestamps. These are market facts — what the prices did — not picks, not predictions, and no read on who won.

73 snapshots across 60 days (Aug 5 – Oct 3), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen. Latest capture Oct 3, 18:00 UTC. “Fair” = the book’s margin removed; a truer implied chance, not a forecast.

Biggest market moves

BoxingBen Whittaker vs Conor Wallace

Conor Wallace’s fair probability moved from 17.6% (Aug 5) to 11.5% (Oct 3) — a -6.1 pts shift. Price +437.5 → +725 across 6 books.

BoxingDiego Yaniel Ortiz Nieves vs Fidencio Hernandez

Diego Yaniel Ortiz Nieves’s fair probability moved from 65.3% (Oct 1) to 60.8% (Oct 3) — a -4.5 pts shift. Price -221 → -177.5 across 4 books.

BoxingJordan Orozco vs Yusniel Abrahante

Jordan Orozco’s fair probability moved from 85.3% (Sep 30) to 81.7% (Oct 3) — a -3.5 pts shift. Price -1000 → -650 across 6 books.

BoxingSean Bruce vs Hamza Uddin

Hamza Uddin’s fair probability moved from 87.4% (Oct 1) to 84.6% (Oct 3) — a -2.8 pts shift. Price -1204.5 → -900 across 6 books.

BoxingJose Luis Navarro Jr vs Damian Biacho

Damian Biacho’s fair probability moved from 38.7% (Oct 2) to 41.4% (Oct 3) — a +2.7 pts shift. Price +139 → +124 across 3 books.

Stable on this slate

These bouts barely moved (under 1.0 fair-prob point). Stated as a finding, not dressed up as movement.

  • Lucas Armand vs Anthony Wint — 81.1% / 18.9% fair, +0.8 pts
  • Klinton Baptiste vs Aaron Bowen — 14.4% / 85.6% fair, +0.7 pts
  • Aaron Alhambra vs Anas Messaoudi — 31.5% / 68.5% fair, +0.7 pts
  • Bilal Fawaz vs Eithan James — 15.8% / 84.2% fair, -0.5 pts
  • Paige Murney vs Linzi Buczynskyj — 9.2% / 90.8% fair, -0.5 pts
  • Marvin Vettori vs Ismail Naurdiev — 55.5% / 44.5% fair, -0.5 pts
  • Ronny Alvarez vs Narciso Carmona — 6.2% / 93.8% fair, -0.3 pts
  • Imanol Rodriguez vs Alden Coria — 56.5% / 43.5% fair, +0.2 pts
  • Damian Pinas vs Andrey Pulyaev — 81.8% / 18.2% fair, -0.2 pts
  • Court McGee vs Eric Nolan — 66.7% / 33.3% fair, -0.1 pts
  • Jusiyah Shirley vs Kevin Castillo — 87.6% / 12.4% fair, 0.0 pts
  • Johnny Walker vs Michael Parkin — 49.0% / 51.0% fair, 0.0 pts
  • Rafael dos Anjos vs Alex Hernandez — 30.2% / 69.8% fair, 0.0 pts

Capture by capture — top 3 movers

Conor Wallace (Ben Whittaker vs Conor Wallace)

Aug 5

17.6%

+437.5 · 2bk

Aug 5

17.6%

+437.5 · 2bk

Aug 6

17.6%

+437.5 · 2bk

Aug 7

17.6%

+437.5 · 2bk

Aug 8

17.6%

+437.5 · 2bk

Aug 9

17.6%

+437.5 · 2bk

Aug 10

17.6%

+437.5 · 2bk

Aug 11

17.6%

+437.5 · 2bk

Aug 12

17.6%

+437.5 · 2bk

Aug 13

17.6%

+437.5 · 2bk

Aug 14

17.6%

+437.5 · 2bk

Aug 15

17.6%

+437.5 · 2bk

Aug 16

17.6%

+437.5 · 2bk

Aug 17

17.6%

+437.5 · 2bk

Aug 18

17.6%

+437.5 · 2bk

Aug 19

17.6%

+437.5 · 2bk

Aug 20

16.7%

+472.5 · 2bk

Aug 21

16.7%

+472.5 · 2bk

Aug 22

16.7%

+472.5 · 2bk

Aug 23

16.7%

+472.5 · 2bk

Aug 24

16.7%

+472.5 · 2bk

Aug 25

16.7%

+472.5 · 2bk

Aug 26

16.7%

+472.5 · 2bk

Aug 27

16.7%

+472.5 · 2bk

Aug 28

16.7%

+472.5 · 2bk

Aug 29

16.7%

+472.5 · 2bk

Aug 30

16.7%

+472.5 · 2bk

Aug 31

15.9%

+497.5 · 2bk

Sep 1

15.9%

+497.5 · 2bk

Sep 2

15.9%

+497.5 · 2bk

Sep 3

15.9%

+496.5 · 2bk

Sep 4

15.9%

+496.5 · 2bk

Sep 5

15.9%

+496.5 · 2bk

Sep 6

15.9%

+496.5 · 2bk

Sep 7

15.9%

+496.5 · 2bk

Sep 8

15.9%

+496.5 · 2bk

Sep 9

15.9%

+500 · 3bk

Sep 10

15.9%

+500 · 3bk

Sep 11

15.9%

+500 · 3bk

Sep 12

15.9%

+500 · 3bk

Sep 13

15.9%

+500 · 3bk

Sep 14

15.9%

+500 · 3bk

Sep 15

15.9%

+500 · 3bk

Sep 16

15.9%

+500 · 3bk

Sep 17

15.9%

+500 · 3bk

Sep 18

15.9%

+500 · 3bk

Sep 19

15.9%

+500 · 3bk

Sep 20

15.9%

+500 · 3bk

Sep 21

15.9%

+500 · 3bk

Sep 22

15.9%

+500 · 3bk

Sep 23

15.9%

+500 · 3bk

Sep 24

15.2%

+510 · 3bk

Sep 25

15.2%

+510 · 3bk

Sep 26

15.2%

+510 · 3bk

Sep 27

14.4%

+560 · 5bk

Sep 28

14.4%

+560 · 5bk

Sep 29

14.2%

+560 · 5bk

Sep 30

11.9%

+800 · 5bk

Oct 1

11.3%

+800 · 5bk

Oct 2

11.9%

+745 · 6bk

Oct 2

11.9%

+745 · 6bk

Oct 2

11.9%

+745 · 6bk

Oct 2

11.9%

+745 · 6bk

Oct 2

12.2%

+682.5 · 6bk

Oct 3

12.2%

+682.5 · 6bk

Oct 3

12.2%

+682.5 · 6bk

Oct 3

12.2%

+682.5 · 6bk

Oct 3

12.0%

+695 · 6bk

Oct 3

11.5%

+725 · 6bk

Diego Yaniel Ortiz Nieves (Diego Yaniel Ortiz Nieves vs Fidencio Hernandez)

Oct 1

65.3%

-221 · 4bk

Oct 1

65.1%

-218.5 · 4bk

Oct 2

64.3%

-225 · 6bk

Oct 2

64.3%

-225 · 6bk

Oct 2

64.9%

-225 · 6bk

Oct 2

64.8%

-225 · 6bk

Oct 3

60.8%

-177.5 · 4bk

Jordan Orozco (Jordan Orozco vs Yusniel Abrahante)

Sep 30

85.3%

-1000 · 4bk

Oct 1

85.7%

-1000 · 4bk

Oct 1

85.7%

-1000 · 4bk

Oct 1

85.3%

-900 · 4bk

Oct 1

85.3%

-900 · 4bk

Oct 2

84.4%

-875 · 6bk

Oct 2

84.4%

-875 · 6bk

Oct 2

84.4%

-875 · 6bk

Oct 2

83.7%

-800 · 6bk

Oct 3

81.7%

-650 · 6bk

Full slate — every bout

Consensus no-vig fair probability at first vs latest capture. Bouts with a single capture show the current price only — no movement claim.

BoutFirstLatestFair ΔBooks
Ben Whittaker vs Conor WallaceBoxing · Oct 317.6%+437.5 · Aug 511.5%+725 · Oct 3-6.1 pts6
Diego Yaniel Ortiz Nieves vs Fidencio HernandezBoxing · Oct 365.3%-221 · Oct 160.8%-177.5 · Oct 3-4.5 pts4
Jordan Orozco vs Yusniel AbrahanteBoxing · Oct 385.3%-1000 · Sep 3081.7%-650 · Oct 3-3.5 pts6
Sean Bruce vs Hamza UddinBoxing · Oct 387.4%-1204.5 · Oct 184.6%-900 · Oct 3-2.8 pts6
Jose Luis Navarro Jr vs Damian BiachoBoxing · Oct 338.7%+139 · Oct 241.4%+124 · Oct 3+2.7 pts3
Donte Layne vs Keithland KingBoxing · Oct 315.2%+564.5 · Oct 113.1%+620 · Oct 3-2.1 pts2
Marcus McGhee vs Anthony RomeroUFC · Oct 379.3%-485 · Oct 180.9%-550 · Oct 3+1.7 pts7
Ibraheem Sulaimaan vs Sonny HardyBoxing · Oct 386.7%-1200 · Sep 2988.3%-1525 · Oct 3+1.6 pts6
Omari Jones vs Alan SanchezBoxing · Oct 38.9%+950 · Sep 167.4%+1100 · Oct 3-1.5 pts3
Jacobe Smith vs Bruce WhiteheadUFC · Oct 313.1%+650 · Oct 211.6%+750 · Oct 3-1.5 pts7
Miguel Angel Hernandez vs Dulio Jaramillo BarbozaBoxing · Oct 394.0%-15000 · Oct 195.2%-10000 · Oct 2+1.2 pts1
Lucas Armand vs Anthony WintUFC · Oct 380.4%-550 · Sep 3081.1%-550 · Oct 3+0.8 pts7
Klinton Baptiste vs Aaron BowenBoxing · Oct 313.7%+580 · Oct 114.4%+560 · Oct 3+0.7 pts6
Aaron Alhambra vs Anas MessaoudiBoxing · Oct 330.9%+200 · Oct 231.5%+200 · Oct 3+0.7 pts3
Bilal Fawaz vs Eithan JamesBoxing · Oct 316.3%+483 · Sep 2715.8%+511.5 · Oct 3-0.5 pts6
Paige Murney vs Linzi BuczynskyjBoxing · Oct 39.7%+875 · Oct 19.2%+1000 · Oct 3-0.5 pts5
Marvin Vettori vs Ismail NaurdievUFC · Oct 356.0%-141 · Oct 355.5%-136 · Oct 3-0.5 pts7
Ronny Alvarez vs Narciso CarmonaBoxing · Oct 36.6%+1270 · Sep 306.2%+1550 · Oct 2-0.3 pts2
Imanol Rodriguez vs Alden CoriaUFC · Oct 356.3%-141 · Oct 356.5%-143 · Oct 3+0.2 pts7
Damian Pinas vs Andrey PulyaevUFC · Oct 382.0%-590 · Oct 381.8%-590 · Oct 3-0.2 pts7
Court McGee vs Eric NolanUFC · Oct 366.8%-225 · Oct 366.7%-225 · Oct 3-0.1 pts7
Jusiyah Shirley vs Kevin CastilloBoxing · Oct 387.5%-1225 · Oct 187.6%-1225 · Oct 20.0 pts6
Johnny Walker vs Michael ParkinUFC · Oct 349.0%-105 · Oct 349.0%-105 · Oct 30.0 pts5
Rafael dos Anjos vs Alex HernandezUFC · Oct 330.2%+220 · Oct 330.2%+220 · Oct 30.0 pts7
Odel Kamara vs Thodoris RitzakisBoxing · Oct 3 · 1 capture95.2%-10000 · Oct 395.2%-10000 · Oct 3—2

Showing the side that moved most per bout. 11 bout(s) moved ≥ 1.0 pt · 13 stable · 1 single-capture.

Methodology

  • • Source. An archive of combat-sport prices (UFC + boxing) captured from multiple books over time. 73 snapshots across 60 days (Aug 5 – Oct 3), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen.
  • • Fair probability. Each book’s two-sided price has its margin removed (no-vig), then averaged across books in probability space — never by averaging the American prices. A movement figure needs a complete two-sided price at both captures; single-sided markets show the price only.
  • • Movement. The change in that fair probability between a side’s first and latest capture, in percentage points. A bout with one capture makes no movement claim.
  • • What this is not. Not a pick, not a prediction, no read on why a price moved, and no result — this page does not say who won. Prices move for many reasons; it reports only that they did, and when.

Related: all archived slates · no-vig calculator · parlay vig calculator.

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