Movement archive · market facts
What the market did before October 13, 2026
UFC — 3 bouts. Below is how each fight’s no-vig fair probability moved between its first and latest capture, with timestamps. These are market facts — what the prices did — not picks, not predictions, and no read on who won.
9 snapshots across 2 days (Oct 12 – Oct 13), 4–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen. Latest capture Oct 13, 18:00 UTC. “Fair” = the book’s margin removed; a truer implied chance, not a forecast.
Biggest market moves
Douglas da Lapa’s fair probability moved from 65.1% (Oct 12) to 61.0% (Oct 13) — a -4.0 pts shift. Price -205 → -172 across 3 books.
Smilla Sundell’s fair probability moved from 76.9% (Oct 12) to 78.6% (Oct 12) — a +1.7 pts shift. Price -400 → -450 across 1 book.
Stable on this slate
These bouts barely moved (under 1.0 fair-prob point). Stated as a finding, not dressed up as movement.
- Greg Foster vs Jason Asher — 65.2% / 34.8% fair, +0.1 pts
Capture by capture — top 3 movers
Douglas da Lapa (Davi Cabral vs Douglas da Lapa)
Oct 12
65.1%
-205 · 1bk
Oct 12
65.1%
-205 · 1bk
Oct 12
63.4%
-190 · 1bk
Oct 12
63.1%
-192.5 · 2bk
Oct 13
62.8%
-190 · 3bk
Oct 13
62.3%
-190 · 3bk
Oct 13
62.1%
-190 · 3bk
Oct 13
61.7%
-184 · 3bk
Oct 13
61.0%
-172 · 3bk
Smilla Sundell (Aline Pereira vs Smilla Sundell)
Oct 12
76.9%
-400 · 1bk
Oct 12
76.9%
-400 · 1bk
Oct 12
78.6%
-450 · 1bk
Full slate — every bout
Consensus no-vig fair probability at first vs latest capture. Bouts with a single capture show the current price only — no movement claim.
| Bout | First | Latest | Fair Δ | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davi Cabral vs Douglas da LapaUFC · Oct 13 | 65.1%-205 · Oct 12 | 61.0%-172 · Oct 13 | -4.0 pts | 3 |
| Aline Pereira vs Smilla SundellUFC · Oct 13 | 76.9%-400 · Oct 12 | 78.6%-450 · Oct 12 | +1.7 pts | 1 |
| Greg Foster vs Jason AsherUFC · Oct 13 | 65.1%-205 · Oct 12 | 65.2%-211.5 · Oct 13 | +0.1 pts | 2 |
Showing the side that moved most per bout. 2 bout(s) moved ≥ 1.0 pt · 1 stable · 0 single-capture.
Methodology
- • Source. An archive of combat-sport prices (UFC + boxing) captured from multiple books over time. 9 snapshots across 2 days (Oct 12 – Oct 13), 4–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen.
- • Fair probability. Each book’s two-sided price has its margin removed (no-vig), then averaged across books in probability space — never by averaging the American prices. A movement figure needs a complete two-sided price at both captures; single-sided markets show the price only.
- • Movement. The change in that fair probability between a side’s first and latest capture, in percentage points. A bout with one capture makes no movement claim.
- • What this is not. Not a pick, not a prediction, no read on why a price moved, and no result — this page does not say who won. Prices move for many reasons; it reports only that they did, and when.
Related: all archived slates · no-vig calculator · parlay vig calculator.
For entertainment purposes only · 21+ · Only bet what you can afford to lose · 1-800-GAMBLER