Movement archive · market facts
What the market did before October 16, 2026
Boxing and UFC — 10 bouts. Below is how each fight’s no-vig fair probability moved between its first and latest capture, with timestamps. These are market facts — what the prices did — not picks, not predictions, and no read on who won.
10 snapshots across 3 days (Oct 14 – Oct 16), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen. Latest capture Oct 16, 18:00 UTC. “Fair” = the book’s margin removed; a truer implied chance, not a forecast.
Biggest market moves
Giulliany Perea’s fair probability moved from 62.6% (Oct 15) to 55.6% (Oct 16) — a -6.9 pts shift. Price -182 → -140 across 1 book.
Caden Cox’s fair probability moved from 42.9% (Oct 15) to 38.1% (Oct 16) — a -4.8 pts shift. Price +125 → +158 across 3 books.
Levan Khabalaev’s fair probability moved from 84.3% (Oct 15) to 87.6% (Oct 16) — a +3.3 pts shift. Price -750 → -1000 across 3 books.
Viacheslav Borshchev’s fair probability moved from 66.5% (Oct 16) to 69.7% (Oct 16) — a +3.2 pts shift. Price -260 → -305 across 1 book.
Charles Harris Jr’s fair probability moved from 52.1% (Oct 15) to 53.2% (Oct 16) — a +1.1 pts shift. Price +139 → -135 across 3 books.
Capture by capture — top 3 movers
Giulliany Perea (Benita van Rooij vs Giulliany Perea)
Oct 15
62.6%
-182 · 1bk
Oct 15
64.1%
-195 · 1bk
Oct 15
62.1%
-178 · 1bk
Oct 15
57.1%
-145 · 1bk
Oct 16
55.9%
-140 · 2bk
Oct 16
55.6%
-140 · 1bk
Oct 16
55.6%
-140 · 1bk
Oct 16
55.6%
-140 · 1bk
Caden Cox (Noah Hermosillo vs Caden Cox)
Oct 15
42.9%
+125 · 1bk
Oct 15
42.9%
+125 · 1bk
Oct 15
39.6%
+145 · 1bk
Oct 15
39.6%
+145 · 1bk
Oct 16
40.1%
+140 · 2bk
Oct 16
39.5%
+144 · 2bk
Oct 16
39.5%
+144 · 2bk
Oct 16
40.0%
+142 · 3bk
Oct 16
38.1%
+158 · 3bk
Levan Khabalaev (Levan Khabalaev vs Brock Hamer)
Oct 15
84.3%
-750 · 2bk
Oct 15
84.3%
-750 · 2bk
Oct 15
84.3%
-750 · 2bk
Oct 15
84.3%
-750 · 2bk
Oct 16
84.5%
-700 · 3bk
Oct 16
86.6%
-1000 · 3bk
Oct 16
86.6%
-1000 · 3bk
Oct 16
86.6%
-1000 · 3bk
Oct 16
87.6%
-1000 · 3bk
Full slate — every bout
Consensus no-vig fair probability at first vs latest capture. Bouts with a single capture show the current price only — no movement claim.
| Bout | First | Latest | Fair Δ | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benita van Rooij vs Giulliany PereaUFC · Oct 16 | 62.6%-182 · Oct 15 | 55.6%-140 · Oct 16 | -6.9 pts | 1 |
| Noah Hermosillo vs Caden CoxUFC · Oct 16 | 42.9%+125 · Oct 15 | 38.1%+158 · Oct 16 | -4.8 pts | 3 |
| Levan Khabalaev vs Brock HamerUFC · Oct 16 | 84.3%-750 · Oct 15 | 87.6%-1000 · Oct 16 | +3.3 pts | 3 |
| Mirali Huseynov vs Viacheslav BorshchevUFC · Oct 16 | 66.5%-260 · Oct 16 | 69.7%-305 · Oct 16 | +3.2 pts | 1 |
| Charles Harris Jr vs Misael CabreraBoxing · Oct 16 | 52.1%+139 · Oct 15 | 53.2%-135 · Oct 16 | +1.1 pts | 3 |
| Eliezer Kubanza vs Trey WatersUFC · Oct 16 · 1 capture | 42.9%+125 · Oct 14 | 42.9%+125 · Oct 14 | — | 1 |
| Liz Carmouche vs Jena BishopUFC · Oct 16 · 1 capture | 74.7%-350 · Oct 14 | 74.7%-350 · Oct 14 | — | 1 |
| Timur Khizriev vs Gabriel Alves BragaUFC · Oct 16 · 1 capture | 77.5%-425 · Oct 14 | 77.5%-425 · Oct 14 | — | 1 |
| Gamid Khizriev vs Michael BoylanUFC · Oct 16 · 1 capture | 92.4%-2500 · Oct 14 | 92.4%-2500 · Oct 14 | — | 1 |
| Emiliano Sordi vs Abraham BablyUFC · Oct 16 · 1 capture | 69.8%-265 · Oct 14 | 69.8%-265 · Oct 14 | — | 1 |
Showing the side that moved most per bout. 5 bout(s) moved ≥ 1.0 pt · 0 stable · 5 single-capture.
Methodology
- • Source. An archive of combat-sport prices (UFC + boxing) captured from multiple books over time. 10 snapshots across 3 days (Oct 14 – Oct 16), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen.
- • Fair probability. Each book’s two-sided price has its margin removed (no-vig), then averaged across books in probability space — never by averaging the American prices. A movement figure needs a complete two-sided price at both captures; single-sided markets show the price only.
- • Movement. The change in that fair probability between a side’s first and latest capture, in percentage points. A bout with one capture makes no movement claim.
- • What this is not. Not a pick, not a prediction, no read on why a price moved, and no result — this page does not say who won. Prices move for many reasons; it reports only that they did, and when.
Related: all archived slates · no-vig calculator · parlay vig calculator.
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