Movement archive · market facts
What the market did before October 17, 2026
Boxing and UFC — 60 bouts. Below is how each fight’s no-vig fair probability moved between its first and latest capture, with timestamps. These are market facts — what the prices did — not picks, not predictions, and no read on who won.
55 snapshots across 44 days (Sep 4 – Oct 17), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen. Latest capture Oct 17, 18:00 UTC. “Fair” = the book’s margin removed; a truer implied chance, not a forecast.
Biggest market moves
Michael Gomez Jr’s fair probability moved from 26.6% (Oct 11) to 37.2% (Oct 17) — a +10.5 pts shift. Price +250 → +153 across 2 books.
Christian Tosco’s fair probability moved from 42.0% (Oct 14) to 50.6% (Oct 17) — a +8.6 pts shift. Price +130 → -113 across 1 book.
Simone Ali’s fair probability moved from 43.8% (Oct 16) to 52.4% (Oct 17) — a +8.6 pts shift. Price +120 → -121 across 1 book.
Marco Elpidio’s fair probability moved from 28.3% (Oct 15) to 19.9% (Oct 17) — a -8.4 pts shift. Price +225 → +383 across 1 book.
Justin Pauldo’s fair probability moved from 47.5% (Oct 15) to 54.9% (Oct 17) — a +7.4 pts shift. Price -3.5 → -150 across 5 books.
Stable on this slate
These bouts barely moved (under 1.0 fair-prob point). Stated as a finding, not dressed up as movement.
- Julien Leblanc vs Nick Galanti — 83.4% / 16.6% fair, +0.9 pts
- Jozef Wittner vs Matus Juracek — 61.3% / 38.7% fair, -0.9 pts
- Ruben Vinci vs Jurgen Koci — 28.8% / 71.2% fair, +0.9 pts
- Mandel Nallo vs Nate Landwehr — 70.3% / 29.7% fair, +0.7 pts
- Marco Romero vs Braulio Matias Ferreira — 5.4% / 94.6% fair, +0.6 pts
- Nelson Birchall vs Levi Giles — 86.3% / 13.7% fair, +0.5 pts
- Enrico Di Gangi vs Tommy Brunning — 34.1% / 65.9% fair, -0.4 pts
- Andrea Kabali vs Danilo Belluardo — 34.1% / 65.9% fair, -0.4 pts
- Dario Bellandi vs Aldo Pereira — 83.6% / 16.4% fair, +0.3 pts
- Fawas Aborode vs Rashid Omar — 93.7% / 6.3% fair, -0.3 pts
- Gamid Khizriev vs Michael Boylan — 7.6% / 92.4% fair, +0.2 pts
- Leighton Birchall vs Alejandro Morales Chazaro — 6.3% / 93.7% fair, +0.2 pts
- Aaron Noriega vs Leonardo Baez — 94.0% / 6.0% fair, -0.1 pts
- Tomasz Narkun vs Daniel Skvor — 65.9% / 34.1% fair, 0.0 pts
- Zayn Ahmed vs Kasey Bradnum — 93.8% / 6.2% fair, 0.0 pts
- David Garcia vs Angel Carrillo — 89.2% / 10.8% fair, 0.0 pts
- Issiah Hamilton-Allen vs Jensen Irving — 6.1% / 93.9% fair, 0.0 pts
- Federico Rotoni vs Andrei Gabura — 7.6% / 92.4% fair, 0.0 pts
- Adam Olaniyan vs Dan Garber — 4.9% / 95.1% fair, 0.0 pts
- Manny Safari vs Jake Pollard — 4.8% / 95.2% fair, 0.0 pts
- Jonathan Rivera vs Angelo Coppola — 22.5% / 77.5% fair, 0.0 pts
Capture by capture — top 3 movers
Michael Gomez Jr (Louie O'Doherty vs Michael Gomez Jr)
Oct 11
26.6%
+250 · 1bk
Oct 12
31.1%
+200 · 1bk
Oct 13
31.1%
+200 · 1bk
Oct 14
34.9%
+170 · 2bk
Oct 15
36.4%
+158 · 2bk
Oct 16
37.1%
+153 · 2bk
Oct 16
37.1%
+153 · 2bk
Oct 16
37.1%
+153 · 2bk
Oct 16
37.1%
+153 · 2bk
Oct 16
37.1%
+153 · 2bk
Oct 17
37.1%
+153 · 2bk
Oct 17
37.1%
+153 · 2bk
Oct 17
37.1%
+153 · 2bk
Oct 17
37.1%
+153 · 2bk
Oct 17
37.1%
+153 · 2bk
Christian Tosco (Salvatore Bellotta vs Christian Tosco)
Oct 14
42.0%
+130 · 1bk
Oct 15
47.2%
+103 · 1bk
Oct 15
51.1%
-115 · 1bk
Oct 16
48.3%
-102 · 1bk
Oct 16
48.3%
-102 · 1bk
Oct 16
48.3%
-102 · 1bk
Oct 16
48.3%
-102 · 1bk
Oct 16
51.1%
-115 · 1bk
Oct 17
51.1%
-115 · 1bk
Oct 17
53.3%
-125 · 1bk
Oct 17
53.3%
-125 · 1bk
Oct 17
53.3%
-125 · 1bk
Oct 17
50.6%
-113 · 1bk
Simone Ali (Alessandro Ortolani vs Simone Ali)
Oct 16
43.8%
+120 · 1bk
Oct 17
45.7%
+110 · 1bk
Oct 17
46.8%
+105 · 1bk
Oct 17
46.8%
+105 · 1bk
Oct 17
46.8%
+105 · 1bk
Oct 17
52.4%
-121 · 1bk
Full slate — every bout
Consensus no-vig fair probability at first vs latest capture. Bouts with a single capture show the current price only — no movement claim.
| Bout | First | Latest | Fair Δ | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louie O'Doherty vs Michael Gomez JrBoxing · Oct 17 | 26.6%+250 · Oct 11 | 37.2%+153 · Oct 17 | +10.5 pts | 2 |
| Salvatore Bellotta vs Christian ToscoUFC · Oct 17 | 42.0%+130 · Oct 14 | 50.6%-113 · Oct 17 | +8.6 pts | 1 |
| Alessandro Ortolani vs Simone AliUFC · Oct 17 | 43.8%+120 · Oct 16 | 52.4%-121 · Oct 17 | +8.6 pts | 1 |
| Marco Elpidio vs Husein KadimagomaevUFC · Oct 17 | 28.3%+225 · Oct 15 | 19.9%+383 · Oct 17 | -8.4 pts | 1 |
| Justin Pauldo vs Rene Tellez GironBoxing · Oct 17 | 47.5%-3.5 · Oct 15 | 54.9%-150 · Oct 17 | +7.4 pts | 5 |
| Daniel Dubois vs Fabio WardleyBoxing · Oct 17 | 20.0%+380 · Sep 4 | 27.0%+255 · Oct 17 | +7.0 pts | 7 |
| Eliezer Kubanza vs Trey WatersUFC · Oct 17 | 53.3%-126.5 · Oct 15 | 60.3%-166 · Oct 17 | +6.9 pts | 2 |
| Simone Patrizi vs Dylan LoganUFC · Oct 17 | 56.2%-140 · Oct 14 | 62.9%-185 · Oct 17 | +6.7 pts | 1 |
| Melissa Croden vs Chelsea ChandlerUFC · Oct 17 | 31.9%+205 · Oct 11 | 25.8%+273 · Oct 17 | -6.1 pts | 7 |
| Joel Faglier vs Javad MahjoubUFC · Oct 17 | 51.5%-116 · Oct 12 | 45.4%+112 · Oct 17 | -6.1 pts | 7 |
| Louis Jourdain vs Timothy CuambaUFC · Oct 17 | 40.9%+132.5 · Oct 10 | 35.5%+170 · Oct 14 | -5.3 pts | 7 |
| Kevin Caperna vs Diego GiangirolamiUFC · Oct 17 | 44.7%+115 · Oct 16 | 50.0%-110 · Oct 17 | +5.3 pts | 1 |
| Giuseppe Mastrogiacomo vs Alexis TsarmantidisUFC · Oct 17 | 68.7%-250 · Oct 14 | 73.5%-325 · Oct 17 | +4.8 pts | 1 |
| Sarvarjon Hamidov vs Rafael do NascimentoUFC · Oct 17 | 27.2%+250 · Oct 15 | 22.4%+330 · Oct 17 | -4.8 pts | 1 |
| Erin Blanchfield vs Jasmine JasudaviciusUFC · Oct 17 | 68.9%-255 · Oct 10 | 73.3%-327.5 · Oct 14 | +4.4 pts | 8 |
| Timur Khizriev vs Gabriel Alves BragaUFC · Oct 17 | 77.1%-422.5 · Oct 15 | 72.7%-310 · Oct 17 | -4.4 pts | 2 |
| Aaron Aby vs David DvorakUFC · Oct 17 | 14.5%+550 · Oct 15 | 18.6%+400 · Oct 17 | +4.1 pts | 1 |
| Bakhodir Jalolov vs Solomon DacresBoxing · Oct 17 | 74.0%-380 · Oct 11 | 77.9%-500 · Oct 17 | +3.9 pts | 4 |
| Joaquin Buckley vs Mike MalottUFC · Oct 17 | 57.8%-150.5 · Oct 10 | 54.2%-131 · Oct 14 | -3.6 pts | 8 |
| Jaime Osuna vs Cristian CangelosiBoxing · Oct 17 | 44.7%+109 · Oct 16 | 48.1%-114 · Oct 17 | +3.5 pts | 6 |
| Niko Ceraglia vs Valentino GrecoUFC · Oct 17 | 85.2%-800 · Oct 16 | 88.7%-1200 · Oct 17 | +3.5 pts | 1 |
| Joshua Kevin Anton vs Freudis Rojas JrBoxing · Oct 17 | 10.6%+900 · Oct 15 | 13.9%+561 · Oct 17 | +3.4 pts | 5 |
| Tanner Boser vs Jhonata DinizUFC · Oct 17 | 31.9%+200 · Oct 15 | 34.9%+174 · Oct 17 | +2.9 pts | 7 |
| Oualy Tandia vs J.P. Saint LouisUFC · Oct 17 | 32.0%+199 · Oct 15 | 29.3%+228.5 · Oct 17 | -2.8 pts | 2 |
| Dominik Humburger vs Patrik KinclUFC · Oct 17 | 65.9%-250 · Oct 15 | 63.5%-190 · Oct 17 | -2.4 pts | 1 |
| Chad Anheliger vs Steven KoslowUFC · Oct 17 | 42.0%+125.5 · Oct 15 | 39.9%+140 · Oct 17 | -2.2 pts | 7 |
| Marc-Andre Barriault vs Kyle DaukausUFC · Oct 17 | 33.7%+185 · Oct 10 | 35.4%+170 · Oct 14 | +1.7 pts | 8 |
| Mackenzie Stiller vs Katlyn ChookagianUFC · Oct 17 | 70.3%-270 · Oct 12 | 68.6%-250 · Oct 17 | -1.7 pts | 7 |
| Emiliano Sordi vs Abraham BablyUFC · Oct 17 | 67.7%-242.5 · Oct 15 | 66.1%-218 · Oct 17 | -1.7 pts | 2 |
| Liz Carmouche vs Jena BishopUFC · Oct 17 | 24.6%+292 · Oct 15 | 23.0%+317.5 · Oct 17 | -1.6 pts | 2 |
| Tony Curtis vs Kerim AgiusBoxing · Oct 17 | 14.3%+570 · Oct 16 | 15.8%+550 · Oct 17 | +1.6 pts | 6 |
| Charles Harris Jr vs Misael CabreraBoxing · Oct 17 | 55.2%-150 · Oct 16 | 53.6%-134 · Oct 17 | -1.6 pts | 1 |
| Cobey Fehr vs Rosario RomeroUFC · Oct 17 | 21.0%+355 · Oct 15 | 19.5%+387.5 · Oct 17 | -1.5 pts | 2 |
| Shannon Clark vs Lucero AcostaUFC · Oct 17 | 21.0%+355 · Oct 15 | 19.5%+393 · Oct 17 | -1.5 pts | 2 |
| Gabriele Lionetti vs Elez GuriUFC · Oct 17 | 27.3%+252 · Oct 16 | 28.8%+234 · Oct 17 | +1.5 pts | 1 |
| Timo Feucht vs Zdenek PolivkaUFC · Oct 17 | 64.4%-230 · Oct 16 | 65.9%-250 · Oct 17 | +1.4 pts | 1 |
| Cody Chovancek vs Su Young YouUFC · Oct 17 | 45.0%+113 · Oct 15 | 46.2%+106 · Oct 17 | +1.2 pts | 6 |
| Daniel Hooker vs Viktor CervinskyUFC · Oct 17 | 28.3%+225 · Oct 15 | 29.3%+215 · Oct 17 | +1.0 pts | 1 |
| Julien Leblanc vs Nick GalantiUFC · Oct 17 | 82.5%-617.5 · Oct 15 | 83.4%-660 · Oct 17 | +0.9 pts | 7 |
| Jozef Wittner vs Matus JuracekUFC · Oct 17 | 62.3%-180 · Oct 16 | 61.3%-172 · Oct 17 | -0.9 pts | 1 |
| Ruben Vinci vs Jurgen KociUFC · Oct 17 | 27.9%+245 · Oct 16 | 28.8%+234 · Oct 17 | +0.9 pts | 1 |
| Mandel Nallo vs Nate LandwehrUFC · Oct 17 | 69.5%-262.5 · Oct 10 | 70.3%-272.5 · Oct 14 | +0.7 pts | 8 |
| Marco Romero vs Braulio Matias FerreiraBoxing · Oct 17 | 4.8%+1900 · Oct 14 | 5.4%+1750 · Oct 16 | +0.6 pts | 6 |
| Nelson Birchall vs Levi GilesBoxing · Oct 17 | 85.7%-1175 · Oct 14 | 86.3%-1125 · Oct 17 | +0.5 pts | 6 |
| Enrico Di Gangi vs Tommy BrunningUFC · Oct 17 | 34.5%+180 · Oct 14 | 34.1%+183 · Oct 17 | -0.4 pts | 1 |
| Andrea Kabali vs Danilo BelluardoUFC · Oct 17 | 34.5%+180 · Oct 16 | 34.1%+183 · Oct 17 | -0.4 pts | 1 |
| Dario Bellandi vs Aldo PereiraUFC · Oct 17 | 83.3%-650 · Oct 14 | 83.6%-665 · Oct 17 | +0.3 pts | 1 |
| Fawas Aborode vs Rashid OmarBoxing · Oct 17 | 94.0%-5000 · Oct 16 | 93.7%-6500 · Oct 17 | -0.3 pts | 2 |
| Gamid Khizriev vs Michael BoylanUFC · Oct 17 | 7.3%+1208 · Oct 15 | 7.6%+1215 · Oct 17 | +0.2 pts | 2 |
| Leighton Birchall vs Alejandro Morales ChazaroBoxing · Oct 17 | 6.0%+1600 · Oct 16 | 6.3%+1400 · Oct 17 | +0.2 pts | 3 |
| Aaron Noriega vs Leonardo BaezBoxing · Oct 17 | 94.1%-5000 · Oct 16 | 94.0%-6000 · Oct 17 | -0.1 pts | 3 |
| Tomasz Narkun vs Daniel SkvorUFC · Oct 17 | 65.9%-250 · Oct 15 | 65.9%-250 · Oct 17 | 0.0 pts | 1 |
| Zayn Ahmed vs Kasey BradnumBoxing · Oct 17 | 93.8%-5000 · Oct 16 | 93.8%-5000 · Oct 17 | 0.0 pts | 2 |
| David Garcia vs Angel CarrilloBoxing · Oct 17 | 89.2%-1600 · Oct 16 | 89.2%-1600 · Oct 17 | 0.0 pts | 5 |
| Issiah Hamilton-Allen vs Jensen IrvingBoxing · Oct 17 | 6.1%+1500 · Oct 16 | 6.1%+1500 · Oct 17 | 0.0 pts | 3 |
| Federico Rotoni vs Andrei GaburaUFC · Oct 17 | 7.6%+1156 · Oct 16 | 7.6%+1156 · Oct 17 | 0.0 pts | 1 |
| Adam Olaniyan vs Dan GarberBoxing · Oct 17 | 4.9%+1850 · Oct 16 | 4.9%+1850 · Oct 17 | 0.0 pts | 4 |
| Manny Safari vs Jake PollardBoxing · Oct 17 | 4.8%+1900 · Oct 16 | 4.8%+1900 · Oct 17 | 0.0 pts | 1 |
| Jonathan Rivera vs Angelo CoppolaUFC · Oct 17 | 22.5%+325 · Oct 16 | 22.5%+325 · Oct 17 | 0.0 pts | 1 |
| Bryan Acosta vs Carlos Arteaga OronaBoxing · Oct 17 · 1 capture | 82.9%-750 · Oct 16 | 82.9%-750 · Oct 16 | — | 5 |
Showing the side that moved most per bout. 38 bout(s) moved ≥ 1.0 pt · 21 stable · 1 single-capture.
Methodology
- • Source. An archive of combat-sport prices (UFC + boxing) captured from multiple books over time. 55 snapshots across 44 days (Sep 4 – Oct 17), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen.
- • Fair probability. Each book’s two-sided price has its margin removed (no-vig), then averaged across books in probability space — never by averaging the American prices. A movement figure needs a complete two-sided price at both captures; single-sided markets show the price only.
- • Movement. The change in that fair probability between a side’s first and latest capture, in percentage points. A bout with one capture makes no movement claim.
- • What this is not. Not a pick, not a prediction, no read on why a price moved, and no result — this page does not say who won. Prices move for many reasons; it reports only that they did, and when.
Related: all archived slates · no-vig calculator · parlay vig calculator.
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