Movement archive · market facts
What the market did before October 18, 2026
Boxing and UFC — 17 bouts. Below is how each fight’s no-vig fair probability moved between its first and latest capture, with timestamps. These are market facts — what the prices did — not picks, not predictions, and no read on who won.
47 snapshots across 40 days (Sep 9 – Oct 18), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen. Latest capture Oct 18, 00:00 UTC. “Fair” = the book’s margin removed; a truer implied chance, not a forecast.
Biggest market moves
Steven Koslow’s fair probability moved from 45.7% (Oct 10) to 57.4% (Oct 14) — a +11.6 pts shift. Price +110 → -150 across 8 books.
Ermal Hadribeaj’s fair probability moved from 14.7% (Sep 9) to 8.3% (Oct 18) — a -6.4 pts shift. Price +560 → +1135 across 6 books.
Koen Mazoudier’s fair probability moved from 19.7% (Oct 14) to 13.3% (Oct 18) — a -6.4 pts shift. Price +379 → +610 across 6 books.
Tomoki Kameda’s fair probability moved from 22.3% (Sep 9) to 26.6% (Oct 17) — a +4.4 pts shift. Price +319 → +231 across 4 books.
Su Young You’s fair probability moved from 41.9% (Oct 10) to 44.6% (Oct 14) — a +2.8 pts shift. Price +130 → +113 across 6 books.
Stable on this slate
These bouts barely moved (under 1.0 fair-prob point). Stated as a finding, not dressed up as movement.
- Julien Leblanc vs Nick Galanti — 18.0% / 82.0% fair, -0.8 pts
- Tanner Boser vs Jhonata Diniz — 31.8% / 68.2% fair, +0.8 pts
- Joaquin Buckley vs Mike Malott — 53.7% / 46.3% fair, -0.8 pts
- Erin Blanchfield vs Jasmine Jasudavicius — 26.0% / 74.0% fair, -0.6 pts
- Mandel Nallo vs Nate Landwehr — 29.2% / 70.8% fair, -0.4 pts
- Marc-Andre Barriault vs Kyle Daukaus — 36.6% / 63.4% fair, 0.0 pts
- Marco Romero vs Braulio Matias Ferreira — 5.3% / 94.7% fair, 0.0 pts
Capture by capture — top 3 movers
Steven Koslow (Chad Anheliger vs Steven Koslow)
Oct 10
45.7%
+110 · 2bk
Oct 11
46.0%
+110 · 7bk
Oct 12
48.9%
-108.5 · 6bk
Oct 13
51.0%
-115 · 6bk
Oct 14
57.4%
-150 · 8bk
Ermal Hadribeaj (Sebastian Fundora vs Ermal Hadribeaj)
Sep 9
14.7%
+560 · 5bk
Sep 10
14.7%
+560 · 5bk
Sep 11
14.7%
+560 · 5bk
Sep 12
14.7%
+560 · 5bk
Sep 13
14.7%
+560 · 5bk
Sep 14
14.0%
+560 · 5bk
Sep 15
14.0%
+560 · 5bk
Sep 16
14.0%
+560 · 5bk
Sep 17
14.0%
+560 · 5bk
Sep 18
14.0%
+560 · 5bk
Sep 19
13.6%
+600 · 5bk
Sep 20
13.6%
+600 · 5bk
Sep 21
13.6%
+600 · 5bk
Sep 22
13.6%
+600 · 5bk
Sep 23
13.6%
+600 · 5bk
Sep 24
13.6%
+600 · 5bk
Sep 25
13.6%
+600 · 5bk
Sep 26
13.6%
+600 · 5bk
Sep 27
12.3%
+700 · 5bk
Sep 28
12.3%
+700 · 5bk
Sep 29
12.3%
+700 · 5bk
Sep 30
12.3%
+700 · 5bk
Oct 1
12.3%
+700 · 5bk
Oct 2
12.3%
+700 · 5bk
Oct 3
12.4%
+680 · 5bk
Oct 4
11.4%
+800 · 5bk
Oct 5
11.4%
+800 · 5bk
Oct 6
11.0%
+750 · 5bk
Oct 7
11.1%
+750 · 5bk
Oct 8
10.5%
+800 · 5bk
Oct 9
10.5%
+800 · 5bk
Oct 10
10.5%
+800 · 5bk
Oct 11
9.5%
+1000 · 5bk
Oct 12
9.5%
+1000 · 5bk
Oct 13
9.5%
+1000 · 5bk
Oct 14
9.8%
+1000 · 5bk
Oct 15
9.6%
+1000 · 5bk
Oct 16
8.9%
+1090 · 6bk
Oct 16
8.9%
+1090 · 6bk
Oct 16
8.9%
+1090 · 6bk
Oct 16
8.8%
+1075 · 6bk
Oct 17
8.5%
+1075 · 6bk
Oct 17
8.4%
+1125 · 6bk
Oct 17
8.4%
+1125 · 6bk
Oct 17
8.4%
+1125 · 6bk
Oct 17
8.3%
+1135 · 6bk
Oct 18
8.3%
+1135 · 6bk
Koen Mazoudier (Jose Armando Resendiz vs Koen Mazoudier)
Oct 14
19.7%
+379 · 2bk
Oct 15
17.7%
+404 · 3bk
Oct 16
13.7%
+600 · 6bk
Oct 16
13.7%
+600 · 6bk
Oct 16
13.7%
+600 · 6bk
Oct 16
12.7%
+625 · 6bk
Oct 17
13.2%
+625 · 6bk
Oct 17
13.2%
+625 · 6bk
Oct 17
13.2%
+625 · 6bk
Oct 17
13.7%
+600 · 6bk
Oct 17
13.7%
+600 · 6bk
Oct 18
13.3%
+610 · 6bk
Full slate — every bout
Consensus no-vig fair probability at first vs latest capture. Bouts with a single capture show the current price only — no movement claim.
| Bout | First | Latest | Fair Δ | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Anheliger vs Steven KoslowUFC · Oct 18 | 45.7%+110 · Oct 10 | 57.4%-150 · Oct 14 | +11.6 pts | 8 |
| Sebastian Fundora vs Ermal HadribeajBoxing · Oct 18 | 14.7%+560 · Sep 9 | 8.3%+1135 · Oct 18 | -6.4 pts | 6 |
| Jose Armando Resendiz vs Koen MazoudierBoxing · Oct 18 | 19.7%+379 · Oct 14 | 13.3%+610 · Oct 18 | -6.4 pts | 6 |
| Brandon Figueroa vs Tomoki KamedaBoxing · Oct 18 | 22.3%+319 · Sep 9 | 26.6%+231 · Oct 17 | +4.4 pts | 4 |
| Cody Chovancek vs Su Young YouUFC · Oct 18 | 41.9%+130 · Oct 10 | 44.6%+113 · Oct 14 | +2.8 pts | 6 |
| Kyle Nelson vs Cristian PérezUFC · Oct 18 | 28.2%+242.5 · Oct 10 | 25.7%+275 · Oct 18 | -2.5 pts | 7 |
| Louis Jourdain vs Timothy CuambaUFC · Oct 18 | 61.9%-180 · Oct 15 | 59.4%-162 · Oct 18 | -2.5 pts | 7 |
| Jermell Charlo vs Koen MazoudierBoxing · Oct 18 | 88.5%-1600 · Sep 9 | 90.0%-1800 · Oct 13 | +1.5 pts | 1 |
| Julien Leblanc vs Nick GalantiUFC · Oct 18 | 18.8%+410 · Oct 10 | 18.0%+427.5 · Oct 14 | -0.8 pts | 8 |
| Tanner Boser vs Jhonata DinizUFC · Oct 18 | 31.0%+210 · Oct 10 | 31.8%+201 · Oct 14 | +0.8 pts | 8 |
| Joaquin Buckley vs Mike MalottUFC · Oct 18 | 54.5%-133 · Oct 15 | 53.7%-126 · Oct 18 | -0.8 pts | 7 |
| Erin Blanchfield vs Jasmine JasudaviciusUFC · Oct 18 | 26.5%+260 · Oct 15 | 26.0%+270 · Oct 18 | -0.6 pts | 7 |
| Mandel Nallo vs Nate LandwehrUFC · Oct 18 | 29.6%+220 · Oct 15 | 29.2%+230 · Oct 18 | -0.4 pts | 7 |
| Marc-Andre Barriault vs Kyle DaukausUFC · Oct 18 | 36.5%+161.5 · Oct 15 | 36.6%+165 · Oct 18 | 0.0 pts | 7 |
| Marco Romero vs Braulio Matias FerreiraBoxing · Oct 18 | 5.3%+1800 · Oct 16 | 5.3%+1700 · Oct 18 | 0.0 pts | 5 |
| Melissa Croden vs Chelsea ChandlerUFC · Oct 18 · 1 capture | 68.4%-245 · Oct 10 | 68.4%-245 · Oct 10 | — | 2 |
| Jaime Osuna vs Cristian CangelosiBoxing · Oct 18 · 1 capture | 47.1%0 · Oct 18 | 47.1%0 · Oct 18 | — | 4 |
Showing the side that moved most per bout. 8 bout(s) moved ≥ 1.0 pt · 7 stable · 2 single-capture.
Methodology
- • Source. An archive of combat-sport prices (UFC + boxing) captured from multiple books over time. 47 snapshots across 40 days (Sep 9 – Oct 18), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen.
- • Fair probability. Each book’s two-sided price has its margin removed (no-vig), then averaged across books in probability space — never by averaging the American prices. A movement figure needs a complete two-sided price at both captures; single-sided markets show the price only.
- • Movement. The change in that fair probability between a side’s first and latest capture, in percentage points. A bout with one capture makes no movement claim.
- • What this is not. Not a pick, not a prediction, no read on why a price moved, and no result — this page does not say who won. Prices move for many reasons; it reports only that they did, and when.
Related: all archived slates · no-vig calculator · parlay vig calculator.
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