Movement archive · market facts
What the market did before October 21, 2026
UFC — 5 bouts. Below is how each fight’s no-vig fair probability moved between its first and latest capture, with timestamps. These are market facts — what the prices did — not picks, not predictions, and no read on who won.
4 snapshots across 1 day (Oct 20 – Oct 20), 4 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen. Latest capture Oct 20, 18:00 UTC. “Fair” = the book’s margin removed; a truer implied chance, not a forecast.
Biggest market moves
Wojciech Kawa’s fair probability moved from 40.8% (Oct 20) to 38.6% (Oct 20) — a -2.2 pts shift. Price +130 → +145 across 1 book.
Stable on this slate
These bouts barely moved (under 1.0 fair-prob point). Stated as a finding, not dressed up as movement.
- Marcin Held vs Valeriu Mircea — 50.0% / 50.0% fair, 0.0 pts
- Steven Krt vs Oskar Szczepaniak — 67.6% / 32.4% fair, 0.0 pts
- Mateusz Pawlik vs Madars Fleminas — 36.3% / 63.7% fair, 0.0 pts
- Igor Michaliszyn vs Tomasz Romanowski — 56.7% / 43.3% fair, 0.0 pts
Capture by capture — top 3 movers
Wojciech Kawa (Sasha Moisa vs Wojciech Kawa)
Oct 20
40.8%
+130 · 1bk
Oct 20
40.8%
+130 · 1bk
Oct 20
38.6%
+145 · 1bk
Oct 20
38.6%
+145 · 1bk
Full slate — every bout
Consensus no-vig fair probability at first vs latest capture. Bouts with a single capture show the current price only — no movement claim.
| Bout | First | Latest | Fair Δ | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sasha Moisa vs Wojciech KawaUFC · Oct 21 | 40.8%+130 · Oct 20 | 38.6%+145 · Oct 20 | -2.2 pts | 1 |
| Marcin Held vs Valeriu MirceaUFC · Oct 21 | 50.0%-120 · Oct 20 | 50.0%-120 · Oct 20 | 0.0 pts | 1 |
| Steven Krt vs Oskar SzczepaniakUFC · Oct 21 | 67.6%-275 · Oct 20 | 67.6%-275 · Oct 20 | 0.0 pts | 1 |
| Mateusz Pawlik vs Madars FleminasUFC · Oct 21 | 36.3%+155 · Oct 20 | 36.3%+155 · Oct 20 | 0.0 pts | 1 |
| Igor Michaliszyn vs Tomasz RomanowskiUFC · Oct 21 | 56.7%-155 · Oct 20 | 56.7%-155 · Oct 20 | 0.0 pts | 1 |
Showing the side that moved most per bout. 1 bout(s) moved ≥ 1.0 pt · 4 stable · 0 single-capture.
Methodology
- • Source. An archive of combat-sport prices (UFC + boxing) captured from multiple books over time. 4 snapshots across 1 day (Oct 20 – Oct 20), 4 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen.
- • Fair probability. Each book’s two-sided price has its margin removed (no-vig), then averaged across books in probability space — never by averaging the American prices. A movement figure needs a complete two-sided price at both captures; single-sided markets show the price only.
- • Movement. The change in that fair probability between a side’s first and latest capture, in percentage points. A bout with one capture makes no movement claim.
- • What this is not. Not a pick, not a prediction, no read on why a price moved, and no result — this page does not say who won. Prices move for many reasons; it reports only that they did, and when.
Related: all archived slates · no-vig calculator · parlay vig calculator.
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