Movement archive · market facts
What the market did before October 23, 2026
UFC — 7 bouts. Below is how each fight’s no-vig fair probability moved between its first and latest capture, with timestamps. These are market facts — what the prices did — not picks, not predictions, and no read on who won.
9 snapshots across 3 days (Oct 21 – Oct 23), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen. Latest capture Oct 23, 18:00 UTC. “Fair” = the book’s margin removed; a truer implied chance, not a forecast.
Biggest market moves
Guram Mestvirishvili’s fair probability moved from 56.2% (Oct 23) to 51.3% (Oct 23) — a -4.9 pts shift. Price -140 → -116 across 1 book.
Robbie Lawler’s fair probability moved from 8.5% (Oct 21) to 4.8% (Oct 22) — a -3.7 pts shift. Price +1000 → +1900 across 1 book.
Patrick Downey’s fair probability moved from 72.9% (Oct 22) to 71.2% (Oct 22) — a -1.7 pts shift. Price -375 → -285 across 1 book.
Stable on this slate
These bouts barely moved (under 1.0 fair-prob point). Stated as a finding, not dressed up as movement.
- Maikel Reinoso vs Oscar Jurado Sanchez — 59.0% / 41.0% fair, +0.2 pts
- Bella Mir vs Chase Hooper — 88.4% / 11.6% fair, 0.0 pts
- Hilarie Rose vs Bruna Ellen — 63.5% / 36.5% fair, 0.0 pts
- Devan Worth vs Thomas Blackorby — 38.3% / 61.7% fair, 0.0 pts
Capture by capture — top 3 movers
Guram Mestvirishvili (Guram Mestvirishvili vs Jansey Silva)
Oct 23
56.2%
-140 · 1bk
Oct 23
56.2%
-140 · 1bk
Oct 23
51.3%
-116 · 1bk
Robbie Lawler (Khamzat Chimaev vs Robbie Lawler)
Oct 21
8.5%
+1000 · 1bk
Oct 22
4.8%
+1900 · 1bk
Oct 22
4.8%
+1900 · 1bk
Oct 22
4.8%
+1900 · 1bk
Oct 22
4.8%
+1900 · 1bk
Oct 22
4.8%
+1900 · 1bk
Patrick Downey (Patrick Downey vs Magomed Magomedkerimov)
Oct 22
72.9%
-375 · 1bk
Oct 22
71.7%
-350 · 1bk
Oct 22
69.2%
-300 · 1bk
Oct 22
69.2%
-300 · 1bk
Oct 22
71.2%
-285 · 1bk
Full slate — every bout
Consensus no-vig fair probability at first vs latest capture. Bouts with a single capture show the current price only — no movement claim.
| Bout | First | Latest | Fair Δ | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guram Mestvirishvili vs Jansey SilvaUFC · Oct 23 | 56.2%-140 · Oct 23 | 51.3%-116 · Oct 23 | -4.9 pts | 1 |
| Khamzat Chimaev vs Robbie LawlerUFC · Oct 23 | 8.5%+1000 · Oct 21 | 4.8%+1900 · Oct 22 | -3.7 pts | 1 |
| Patrick Downey vs Magomed MagomedkerimovUFC · Oct 23 | 72.9%-375 · Oct 22 | 71.2%-285 · Oct 22 | -1.7 pts | 1 |
| Maikel Reinoso vs Oscar Jurado SanchezUFC · Oct 23 | 58.8%-155 · Oct 23 | 59.0%-156 · Oct 23 | +0.2 pts | 1 |
| Bella Mir vs Chase HooperUFC · Oct 23 | 88.4%-2000 · Oct 22 | 88.4%-2000 · Oct 22 | 0.0 pts | 1 |
| Hilarie Rose vs Bruna EllenUFC · Oct 23 | 63.5%-190 · Oct 23 | 63.5%-190 · Oct 23 | 0.0 pts | 1 |
| Devan Worth vs Thomas BlackorbyUFC · Oct 23 | 38.3%+153 · Oct 23 | 38.3%+153 · Oct 23 | 0.0 pts | 1 |
Showing the side that moved most per bout. 3 bout(s) moved ≥ 1.0 pt · 4 stable · 0 single-capture.
Methodology
- • Source. An archive of combat-sport prices (UFC + boxing) captured from multiple books over time. 9 snapshots across 3 days (Oct 21 – Oct 23), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen.
- • Fair probability. Each book’s two-sided price has its margin removed (no-vig), then averaged across books in probability space — never by averaging the American prices. A movement figure needs a complete two-sided price at both captures; single-sided markets show the price only.
- • Movement. The change in that fair probability between a side’s first and latest capture, in percentage points. A bout with one capture makes no movement claim.
- • What this is not. Not a pick, not a prediction, no read on why a price moved, and no result — this page does not say who won. Prices move for many reasons; it reports only that they did, and when.
Related: all archived slates · no-vig calculator · parlay vig calculator.
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