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Movement archive · market facts

What the market did before October 24, 2026

Boxing and UFC — 27 bouts. Below is how each fight’s no-vig fair probability moved between its first and latest capture, with timestamps. These are market facts — what the prices did — not picks, not predictions, and no read on who won.

94 snapshots across 81 days (Aug 5 – Oct 24), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen. Latest capture Oct 24, 18:00 UTC. “Fair” = the book’s margin removed; a truer implied chance, not a forecast.

Biggest market moves

UFCAaron Pico vs Losene Keita

Aaron Pico’s fair probability moved from 46.8% (Oct 15) to 56.8% (Oct 24) — a +10.1 pts shift. Price +105 → -145 across 7 books.

UFCBolaji Oki vs Daniel Santos

Daniel Santos’s fair probability moved from 56.6% (Oct 18) to 50.9% (Oct 24) — a -5.8 pts shift. Price -150 → -115 across 7 books.

UFCPatrick Downey vs Magomed Magomedkerimov

Magomed Magomedkerimov’s fair probability moved from 33.3% (Oct 23) to 27.9% (Oct 24) — a -5.5 pts shift. Price +189 → +245 across 1 book.

UFCJake Woodley vs Zayne Havener

Zayne Havener’s fair probability moved from 30.2% (Oct 21) to 25.3% (Oct 24) — a -4.9 pts shift. Price +220 → +280 across 1 book.

UFCAbubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun

Jacob Malkoun’s fair probability moved from 36.9% (Oct 18) to 41.5% (Oct 24) — a +4.5 pts shift. Price +165 → +134 across 7 books.

Stable on this slate

These bouts barely moved (under 1.0 fair-prob point). Stated as a finding, not dressed up as movement.

  • Shannon Ryan vs Emma Dolan — 71.2% / 28.8% fair, +0.8 pts
  • Alexander Volkov vs Rizvan Kuniev — 45.5% / 54.5% fair, +0.7 pts
  • Emanuel Navarrete vs O'Shaquie Foster — 40.1% / 59.9% fair, +0.6 pts
  • Lone'er Kavanagh vs Ramazonbek Temirov — 49.5% / 50.5% fair, -0.5 pts
  • Khamzat Chimaev vs Robbie Lawler — 95.6% / 4.4% fair, +0.4 pts
  • Leo Atang vs Jonathan Exequiel Vergara — 94.7% / 5.3% fair, -0.3 pts
  • Kody Steele vs Noah Gugnon — 41.2% / 58.8% fair, 0.0 pts
  • Bella Mir vs Chase Hooper — 88.4% / 11.6% fair, 0.0 pts

Capture by capture — top 3 movers

Aaron Pico (Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita)

Oct 15

46.8%

+105 · 1bk

Oct 16

46.8%

+105 · 1bk

Oct 17

46.8%

+105 · 1bk

Oct 18

48.1%

-2 · 4bk

Oct 19

50.4%

-113.5 · 6bk

Oct 20

50.8%

-115 · 7bk

Oct 21

52.9%

-125 · 7bk

Oct 22

54.8%

-135 · 7bk

Oct 22

56.3%

-142 · 7bk

Oct 23

56.4%

-142 · 7bk

Oct 23

56.5%

-144 · 7bk

Oct 23

56.5%

-144 · 7bk

Oct 23

56.6%

-144 · 7bk

Oct 23

56.8%

-145 · 6bk

Oct 24

57.7%

-150 · 7bk

Oct 24

57.7%

-149 · 7bk

Oct 24

57.7%

-149 · 7bk

Oct 24

57.5%

-148 · 7bk

Oct 24

56.8%

-145 · 7bk

Daniel Santos (Bolaji Oki vs Daniel Santos)

Oct 18

56.6%

-150 · 3bk

Oct 19

56.2%

-142 · 5bk

Oct 20

53.5%

-128 · 5bk

Oct 21

52.7%

-121 · 7bk

Oct 22

51.9%

-120 · 7bk

Oct 22

52.7%

-122 · 7bk

Oct 23

52.7%

-122 · 7bk

Oct 23

52.7%

-122 · 7bk

Oct 23

52.7%

-122 · 7bk

Oct 23

52.4%

-122 · 7bk

Oct 23

51.8%

-118.5 · 6bk

Oct 24

51.5%

-117 · 7bk

Oct 24

50.9%

-115 · 7bk

Oct 24

50.9%

-115 · 7bk

Oct 24

50.9%

-115 · 7bk

Magomed Magomedkerimov (Patrick Downey vs Magomed Magomedkerimov)

Oct 23

33.3%

+189 · 1bk

Oct 23

33.0%

+192 · 1bk

Oct 23

33.0%

+192 · 1bk

Oct 23

33.0%

+192 · 1bk

Oct 23

30.5%

+215 · 1bk

Oct 24

27.9%

+245 · 1bk

Full slate — every bout

Consensus no-vig fair probability at first vs latest capture. Bouts with a single capture show the current price only — no movement claim.

BoutFirstLatestFair ΔBooks
Aaron Pico vs Losene KeitaUFC · Oct 2446.8%+105 · Oct 1556.8%-145 · Oct 24+10.1 pts7
Bolaji Oki vs Daniel SantosUFC · Oct 2456.6%-150 · Oct 1850.9%-115 · Oct 24-5.8 pts7
Patrick Downey vs Magomed MagomedkerimovUFC · Oct 2433.3%+189 · Oct 2327.9%+245 · Oct 24-5.5 pts1
Jake Woodley vs Zayne HavenerUFC · Oct 2430.2%+220 · Oct 2125.3%+280 · Oct 24-4.9 pts1
Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob MalkounUFC · Oct 2436.9%+165 · Oct 1841.5%+134 · Oct 24+4.5 pts7
Petr Yan vs Merab DvalishviliUFC · Oct 2461.2%-175 · Oct 1857.7%-150 · Oct 24-3.5 pts7
Grant Dawson vs Nurullo AlievUFC · Oct 2445.7%+110 · Oct 1548.7%-103 · Oct 24+2.9 pts7
Nikita Krylov vs Abdulrakhman YakhyaevUFC · Oct 2421.2%+354 · Oct 1518.8%+410 · Oct 24-2.4 pts6
Azamat Murzakanov vs Dominick ReyesUFC · Oct 2433.3%+189 · Oct 1535.5%+170 · Oct 24+2.2 pts7
Asaf Chopurov vs Colby ThicknesseUFC · Oct 2420.0%+380 · Oct 2017.9%+430 · Oct 24-2.1 pts7
Dalton Smith vs Alberto PuelloBoxing · Oct 2461.8%-185 · Aug 563.6%-202.5 · Oct 24+1.8 pts6
Nicolle Caliari vs Iasmin LucindoUFC · Oct 2424.8%+295 · Oct 1923.0%+312.5 · Oct 24-1.8 pts6
Giorgio Visoli vs Maxi HughesBoxing · Oct 2414.4%+559 · Sep 312.9%+650 · Oct 24-1.6 pts5
Alex Volkanovski vs Movsar EvloevUFC · Oct 2449.5%-109 · Oct 1850.7%-112 · Oct 24+1.2 pts7
Abusupyian Magomedov vs Cam RowstonUFC · Oct 2448.3%-102 · Oct 1547.3%+103.5 · Oct 24-1.0 pts6
Shannon Ryan vs Emma DolanBoxing · Oct 2470.4%-278 · Sep 371.2%-306.5 · Oct 24+0.8 pts6
Alexander Volkov vs Rizvan KunievUFC · Oct 2444.7%+115 · Oct 1545.5%+110 · Oct 24+0.7 pts7
Emanuel Navarrete vs O'Shaquie FosterBoxing · Oct 2439.5%+142 · Sep 440.1%+130 · Sep 12+0.6 pts5
Lone'er Kavanagh vs Ramazonbek TemirovUFC · Oct 2450.0%-110 · Oct 1549.5%-107.5 · Oct 24-0.5 pts6
Khamzat Chimaev vs Robbie LawlerUFC · Oct 2495.2%-8000 · Oct 2395.6%-12000 · Oct 24+0.4 pts1
Leo Atang vs Jonathan Exequiel VergaraBoxing · Oct 2495.0%-10000 · Oct 2194.7%-10000 · Oct 24-0.3 pts4
Kody Steele vs Noah GugnonUFC · Oct 2441.2%+132 · Oct 1841.2%+132 · Oct 240.0 pts7
Bella Mir vs Chase HooperUFC · Oct 2488.4%-2000 · Oct 2388.4%-2000 · Oct 240.0 pts1
Hilarie Rose vs Bruna EllenUFC · Oct 24 · 1 capture32.9%+192 · Oct 2432.9%+192 · Oct 24—1
Devan Worth vs Thomas BlackorbyUFC · Oct 24 · 1 capture35.9%+170 · Oct 2435.9%+170 · Oct 24—1
Guram Mestvirishvili vs Jansey SilvaUFC · Oct 24 · 1 capture50.0%-110 · Oct 2450.0%-110 · Oct 24—1
Maikel Reinoso vs Oscar Jurado SanchezUFC · Oct 24 · 1 capture39.6%+145 · Oct 2439.6%+145 · Oct 24—1

Showing the side that moved most per bout. 15 bout(s) moved ≥ 1.0 pt · 8 stable · 4 single-capture.

Methodology

  • • Source. An archive of combat-sport prices (UFC + boxing) captured from multiple books over time. 94 snapshots across 81 days (Aug 5 – Oct 24), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen.
  • • Fair probability. Each book’s two-sided price has its margin removed (no-vig), then averaged across books in probability space — never by averaging the American prices. A movement figure needs a complete two-sided price at both captures; single-sided markets show the price only.
  • • Movement. The change in that fair probability between a side’s first and latest capture, in percentage points. A bout with one capture makes no movement claim.
  • • What this is not. Not a pick, not a prediction, no read on why a price moved, and no result — this page does not say who won. Prices move for many reasons; it reports only that they did, and when.

Related: all archived slates · no-vig calculator · parlay vig calculator.

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