The week lost money. 66 of the 68 picks in that window have been graded, and they came back 30–35–1. Against 62.40 units staked that is -12.69u, a return on stake of -20.3%. 2 picks have not graded yet and are in none of these numbers.
It was one sport’s week, and it was the biggest one. NCAAF went 15–25–1 (-11.29u), MLB went 10–3 (+2.91u), NFL went 2–4 (-2.17u) and UFC went 3–3 (-2.14u). Take the college football book out and the week is close to flat; it is the one place we published most, which is exactly where a bad run costs the most.
What the market did to our numbers
We capture the line when a pick goes out and again near the close, so a pick can be right about the market and still lose the game. Everything in this paragraph is counted on one set: the 47 picks this week where both ends were captured and agree. 14 of them saw the line move at all, and across those 14 the average move was 1 point. On 24 of them the number we published was better than the number the market closed at; on 23 it was not. That is close to an even split, and it is a measurement of where our price sat, not a claim about what it is worth. One week decides neither.
What we could not show you
Not every pick can carry a closing line, and we would rather say which than quietly show fewer rows. This list covers all 68 picks published in the window — including the 2 still ungraded — not the 66 that have been graded.
- 47 had a closing line we could verify against the published side.
- 8 were moneylines or totals — a moneyline has no line to capture, so there is nothing to compare, and totals are published without a closing capture.
- 5 carry a stored benchmark line on the opposite side to the published pick. We do not trust it, so we show no close rather than a number that might be measuring the wrong team.
- 3 had no second capture before kick-off — the market was not read again in time.
- 5 carry no readable published line to compare a close against.
The record this sits in
On the same selection, back to June 16: 496 graded picks, 284–204–8, 450.10 units staked for -1.65u — a return on stake of -0.4%.
That is the number worth sitting with. We have won 58.2% of decided picks and we are still slightly behind where we started, because a good share of them are short-priced favourites where being right most of the time is not the same as being paid. A record that reports winners without reporting stake is telling you the flattering half. This is the other half, and we publish it in the same place, every week, win or lose.
Every figure above comes from a stored row you can check: each pick on the board states the books behind its price and the minute it was captured, and links to its own receipt. The full graded record is public and always has the losses in it.
For entertainment and information only. Not betting advice. 21+. Odds move — verify before placing. Past results do not predict future outcomes.