Start with the only number that has had time to mean anything. Since June 16 we have published and graded 500 picks on the selection below. They came back 287–205–8. Against 451.90 units staked that is -0.29u — a return on stake of -0.1%.
We have won 58.3% of the 492 picks that were decided, and we are still behind on stake. Those two facts belong in the same sentence and almost nobody puts them there. Winning most of your bets and making money are different achievements: a good share of ours are short-priced favourites, where being right four times in five still does not pay for the fifth. A record that reports winners without reporting stake is showing you the flattering half.
This week is the evidence, and it cuts our way
The week made money. 6 of the 8 picks published in this window have been graded, and they came back 5–1. Against 3.80 units staked that is +2.74u, a return on stake of +72.2%. 2 picks have not graded yet and are in none of these numbers.
That is a better week than we have had all season on stake — and it moved the all-time figure to -0.1%. That is what a good week does to a real record: almost nothing. The arithmetic is not mysterious — 3.80 units of stake cannot move 451.90 very far — but it is the part that gets left out when a week like this is the whole advertisement.
And the week is not finished
These are the picks that have been played so far in the window, by sport: MLB 4–1 (+1.88u) and NFL 1–0 (+0.86u). Last week we published 68 picks and 49 of them fell on a single Saturday college-football card, which went 15–25–1 and cost 11.29 units on its own. That Saturday is what made last week a losing one, and this week’s has not been played. Anyone quoting this week’s return at you today is quoting a handful of quiet days.
What we could not show you
We capture the line when a pick goes out and again near the close. Not every pick can carry a closing line, and we would rather say which than quietly show fewer rows. This covers all 8 picks in the window, including the 2 still ungraded.
- 2 had a closing line we could check against the published side.
- 1 were moneylines or totals — a moneyline has no line to capture, so there is nothing to compare.
- 1 carry a stored benchmark on the opposite side to the published pick. We do not trust it, so we show no close rather than a number that might be measuring the wrong team.
- 1 had no second capture before kick-off — the market was not read again in time.
- 3 carry no readable published line to compare a close against.
On the 2 we could check, the number we published was better than the close on 2 and worse on 0. That is a measurement of where our price sat, not a claim about what it is worth, and 2 is far too few to read anything into.
What changed on the board
The free board now carries every fixture we track for seven days, not only the ones that became picks — 148 rows this week, and not one of them blank. A fixture with a healthy market states the line, the number of books quoting it and the minute it was captured; a thin or missing market says so in words rather than showing a zero. Picks no longer disappear when their game starts: they stay on their day, marked started, then graded, win or lose. This week’s 1 loss is sitting there with the rest.
Every figure above comes from a stored row you can check. Each pick on the board states the books behind its price and the minute it was captured. The full graded record is public and always has the losses in it, and the board shows what we are watching before anything is posted.
For entertainment and information only. Not betting advice. 21+. Odds move — verify before placing. Past results do not predict future outcomes.