Movement archive · market facts
What the market did before July 20, 2026
Boxing — 3 bouts. Below is how each fight’s no-vig fair probability moved between its first and latest capture, with timestamps. These are market facts — what the prices did — not picks, not predictions, and no read on who won.
3 snapshots across 1 day (Jul 20 – Jul 20), 3 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen. Latest capture Jul 20, 08:00 UTC. “Fair” = the book’s margin removed; a truer implied chance, not a forecast.
Biggest market moves
Erik Badillo’s fair probability moved from 44.1% (Jul 20) to 41.6% (Jul 20) — a -2.5 pts shift. Price +110 → +127.5 across 2 books.
Israel Gonzalez’s fair probability moved from 29.7% (Jul 20) to 28.4% (Jul 20) — a -1.3 pts shift. Price +226 → +227.5 across 4 books.
Stable on this slate
These bouts barely moved (under 1.0 fair-prob point). Stated as a finding, not dressed up as movement.
- Riku Masuda vs Daigo Higa — 17.2% / 82.8% fair, -0.3 pts
Capture by capture — top 3 movers
Erik Badillo (Shokichi Iwata vs Erik Badillo)
Jul 20
44.1%
+110 · 5bk
Jul 20
43.1%
+110 · 5bk
Jul 20
41.6%
+127.5 · 2bk
Israel Gonzalez (Kenshiro Teraji vs Israel Gonzalez)
Jul 20
29.7%
+226 · 5bk
Jul 20
28.6%
+226 · 5bk
Jul 20
28.4%
+227.5 · 4bk
Full slate — every bout
Consensus no-vig fair probability at first vs latest capture. Bouts with a single capture show the current price only — no movement claim.
| Bout | First | Latest | Fair Δ | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shokichi Iwata vs Erik BadilloBoxing · Jul 20 | 44.1%+110 · Jul 20 | 41.6%+127.5 · Jul 20 | -2.5 pts | 2 |
| Kenshiro Teraji vs Israel GonzalezBoxing · Jul 20 | 29.7%+226 · Jul 20 | 28.4%+227.5 · Jul 20 | -1.3 pts | 4 |
| Riku Masuda vs Daigo HigaBoxing · Jul 20 | 17.5%+439 · Jul 20 | 17.2%+461 · Jul 20 | -0.3 pts | 3 |
Showing the side that moved most per bout. 2 bout(s) moved ≥ 1.0 pt · 1 stable · 0 single-capture.
Methodology
- • Source. An archive of combat-sport prices (UFC + boxing) captured from multiple books over time. 3 snapshots across 1 day (Jul 20 – Jul 20), 3 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen.
- • Fair probability. Each book’s two-sided price has its margin removed (no-vig), then averaged across books in probability space — never by averaging the American prices. A movement figure needs a complete two-sided price at both captures; single-sided markets show the price only.
- • Movement. The change in that fair probability between a side’s first and latest capture, in percentage points. A bout with one capture makes no movement claim.
- • What this is not. Not a pick, not a prediction, no read on why a price moved, and no result — this page does not say who won. Prices move for many reasons; it reports only that they did, and when.
Related: all archived slates · no-vig calculator · parlay vig calculator.
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