Betting math tools

Compare the price you took against the closing price, in de-vigged implied probability points — the unit that stays comparable across the whole odds range, unlike counting cents.

How far the de-vigged price travelled between the first snapshot recorded and the last before kickoff, across completed games. Ranked by size of move. Lines that held are listed too.

When an NFL or college spread moves days before kickoff, the rest of the move kept going 887 times and came back 517. Measured over 3,865 games.

How often an NFL game’s combined score lands on each number: no total more than about 1 game in 24, led by 37, 51, 44, 43, 41 and 47. 1,320 games.

How often an NFL game ends on each margin: about 1 in 7 on exactly 3, then 7. And what a result of exactly 3 does to a line of 2.5, 3 or 3.5. 1,320 games.

What the closing line gives the home team (about 1.6 points since 2021), what home teams actually won by, and all 32 teams against the number with their uncertainty. 1,320 games.

This season’s home teams against the closing line, team by team: what the line gave, what home teams won by, and how uncertain each team’s number still is. Refreshed weekly.

How far apart the sportsbooks are on the same college football game — every book’s spread, and the range between the widest and narrowest. Market facts, updated from live odds.

What a Super Bowl future really costs — overround, hold, the dollar cost on $100, and the best-vs-worst book price per team, from a dated 6-book field.

How much margin is hidden in the 32-team Super Bowl field — the overround across five sportsbooks, dated and de-vigged.

Why a −110 line needs 52.38% to break even — and what the hold costs, in dollars, over 100 bets. Price-by-price.

Strip the book’s margin out of a two-way price to see the fair, no-vig odds and implied probability.

How in-play markets reprice in seconds — and why the house edge runs structurally higher live than pre-game. Education, illustrative examples only.

True odds vs the price you’re paid on a parlay — see the compounding margin leg by leg.

The win rate a given price needs just to break even, before any margin.