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What Changed? · market facts

Fight Week: what the market did before Saturday

The Jul 25–26 slate — UFC Abu Dhabi and the Spence–Tszyu weekend. Below is how each fight’s no-vig fair probability has moved, day by day, with timestamps. These are market facts — what the prices did — not picks, and not a prediction of who wins.

Tracking since Jul 20 · daily snapshots (≈08:00 UTC), not tick data · latest sweep Jul 22, 08:00 UTC. “Fair” = the book’s margin removed; a truer implied chance, not a forecast.

Biggest market moves

UFCIslam Dulatov vs Wellington Turman

Islam Dulatov’s fair probability moved from 75.8% (Jul 20) to 86.6% (Jul 22) — a +10.8 pts shift. Price -732.5 → -975 across 8 books.

UFCNurullo Aliev vs Mike Davis

Mike Davis’s fair probability moved from 40.0% (Jul 20) to 34.8% (Jul 22) — a -5.2 pts shift. Price +141 → +180 across 8 books.

UFCRizvan Kuniev vs Tyrell Fortune

Rizvan Kuniev’s fair probability moved from 69.8% (Jul 20) to 73.3% (Jul 22) — a +3.5 pts shift. Price -265 → -327.5 across 8 books.

UFCCody Gibson vs Abdul Hussein

Abdul Hussein’s fair probability moved from 76.6% (Jul 20) to 79.4% (Jul 22) — a +2.8 pts shift. Price -400 → -500 across 8 books.

BoxingSergiy Derevyanchenko vs Jalil Hackett

Jalil Hackett’s fair probability moved from 58.8% (Jul 20) to 61.6% (Jul 22) — a +2.8 pts shift. Price -172 → -195 across 4 books.

Stable this week

These bouts barely moved (under 1.0 fair-prob point) — the market is settled on them. Stated as a finding, not dressed up as movement.

  • Ismael Bonfim vs Axel Sola — 62.9% / 37.1% fair, +0.4 pts
  • Magomed Ankalaev vs Bogdan Guskov — 19.1% / 80.9% fair, -0.3 pts
  • Hamzah Sheeraz vs Simon Zachenhuber — 90.9% / 9.1% fair, +0.3 pts
  • Errol Spence Jr vs Tim Tszyu — 51.7% / 48.3% fair, +0.3 pts
  • Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Sam Patterson — 77.1% / 22.9% fair, +0.2 pts
  • Richardson Hitchins vs Ricardo Salas Rodriguez — 14.2% / 85.8% fair, +0.2 pts
  • Tyson Fury vs Mariusz Wach — 4.6% / 95.4% fair, 0.0 pts
  • Anthony Joshua vs Kristian Prenga — 93.1% / 6.9% fair, 0.0 pts
  • Reito Tsutsumi vs Alvino Herrera Meza — 13.5% / 86.5% fair, 0.0 pts

Day by day — top 3 movers

Islam Dulatov (Islam Dulatov vs Wellington Turman)

Jul 20

75.8%

-732.5 · 8bk

Jul 20

76.5%

-850 · 8bk

Jul 21

76.7%

-875 · 8bk

Jul 22

86.6%

-975 · 8bk

Mike Davis (Nurullo Aliev vs Mike Davis)

Jul 20

40.0%

+141 · 8bk

Jul 20

40.0%

+141 · 8bk

Jul 21

36.4%

+164 · 8bk

Jul 22

34.8%

+180 · 8bk

Rizvan Kuniev (Rizvan Kuniev vs Tyrell Fortune)

Jul 20

69.8%

-265 · 8bk

Jul 20

70.1%

-270 · 8bk

Jul 21

71.3%

-295 · 8bk

Jul 22

73.3%

-327.5 · 8bk

Full slate — every bout

Consensus no-vig fair probability at first vs latest capture. Bouts with a single capture show the current price only — no movement claim.

BoutFirstLatestFair ΔBooks
Islam Dulatov vs Wellington TurmanUFC · Jul 2575.8%-732.5 · Jul 2086.6%-975 · Jul 22+10.8 pts8
Nurullo Aliev vs Mike DavisUFC · Jul 2540.0%+141 · Jul 2034.8%+180 · Jul 22-5.2 pts8
Rizvan Kuniev vs Tyrell FortuneUFC · Jul 2569.8%-265 · Jul 2073.3%-327.5 · Jul 22+3.5 pts8
Cody Gibson vs Abdul HusseinUFC · Jul 2576.6%-400 · Jul 2079.4%-500 · Jul 22+2.8 pts8
Sergiy Derevyanchenko vs Jalil HackettBoxing · Jul 2658.8%-172 · Jul 2061.6%-195 · Jul 22+2.8 pts4
Magomed Zaynukov vs Damian RzepeckiUFC · Jul 2524.6%+285 · Jul 2027.2%+252 · Jul 22+2.6 pts8
Stephen Fulton vs Liam WilsonBoxing · Jul 2628.0%+237 · Jul 2025.5%+269.5 · Jul 22-2.5 pts4
Otto Wallin vs Vladyslav SirenkoBoxing · Jul 2662.1%-200 · Jul 2064.4%-222.5 · Jul 22+2.3 pts4
Josh Kelly vs Caoimhin AgyarkoBoxing · Jul 2524.3%+290 · Jul 2022.1%+335 · Jul 22-2.2 pts5
Valter Walker vs Thomas PetersenUFC · Jul 2536.6%+160 · Jul 2038.6%+150 · Jul 22+1.9 pts8
Stephen Erceg vs Ramazonbek TemirovUFC · Jul 2548.6%-105 · Jul 2050.4%-113.5 · Jul 22+1.8 pts6
Edgar Berlanga vs Steven ButlerBoxing · Jul 2770.1%-270 · Jul 2071.8%-305 · Jul 22+1.7 pts4
Magomed Tuchalov vs Brendson RibeiroUFC · Jul 2516.4%+500 · Jul 2015.4%+550 · Jul 22-1.0 pts7
Ismael Bonfim vs Axel SolaUFC · Jul 2562.5%-183.5 · Jul 2062.9%-187.5 · Jul 22+0.4 pts8
Magomed Ankalaev vs Bogdan GuskovUFC · Jul 2519.4%+400 · Jul 2019.1%+400 · Jul 22-0.3 pts8
Hamzah Sheeraz vs Simon ZachenhuberBoxing · Jul 2590.6%-2500 · Jul 2090.9%-2500 · Jul 22+0.3 pts3
Errol Spence Jr vs Tim TszyuBoxing · Jul 2651.4%-120 · Jul 2051.7%-125 · Jul 22+0.3 pts3
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Sam PattersonUFC · Jul 2577.0%-410 · Jul 2077.1%-417.5 · Jul 22+0.2 pts8
Richardson Hitchins vs Ricardo Salas RodriguezBoxing · Jul 2714.0%+575 · Jul 2014.2%+560 · Jul 22+0.2 pts4
Tyson Fury vs Mariusz WachBoxing · Jul 244.6%+2000 · Jul 204.6%+2000 · Jul 220.0 pts1
Anthony Joshua vs Kristian PrengaBoxing · Jul 2593.1%-4000 · Jul 2093.1%-4000 · Jul 220.0 pts3
Reito Tsutsumi vs Alvino Herrera MezaBoxing · Jul 2513.5%+560 · Jul 2113.5%+560 · Jul 220.0 pts3
Dustin Jacoby vs Muhammad SaidUFC · Jul 25 · 1 capture59.4%-164.5 · Jul 2259.4%-164.5 · Jul 22—8
Abubakar Vagaev vs Saygid IzagakhmaevUFC · Jul 25 · 1 capture68.5%-250 · Jul 2268.5%-250 · Jul 22—6
Nishant Dev vs Cesar DiazBoxing · Jul 25 · 1 capture4.6%+2000 · Jul 224.6%+2000 · Jul 22—1
Jacob Bank vs Pawel AugustBoxing · Jul 25 · 1 capture90.2%-2000 · Jul 2290.2%-2000 · Jul 22—3
Paul Fleming vs Ahmad RedaBoxing · Jul 25 · 1 capture72.0%-325 · Jul 2272.0%-325 · Jul 22—2
Callum Peters vs Ivan Ricardo ActisBoxing · Jul 25 · 1 capture89.0%-1500 · Jul 2289.0%-1500 · Jul 22—3
Paulo Aokuso vs Luis Antonio TejedaBoxing · Jul 25 · 1 capture22.8%+313 · Jul 2222.8%+313 · Jul 22—2

Showing the side that moved most per bout. 13 bout(s) moved ≥ 1.0 pt · 9 stable · 7 single-capture.

Methodology

  • • Source. A daily archive of combat-sport prices (UFC + boxing), swept once each morning (≈08:00 UTC) since Jul 20. Daily snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two sweeps and we would only see the endpoints.
  • • Fair probability. Each book’s two-sided price has its margin removed (no-vig), then averaged across books in probability space — never by averaging the American prices. A movement figure needs a complete two-sided price at both captures; single-sided markets show the price only.
  • • Movement. The change in that fair probability between a side’s first and latest capture, in percentage points. A bout with one capture bucket makes no movement claim.
  • • What this is not. Not a pick, not a prediction, and no read on why a price moved. Prices move for many reasons; this page reports only that they did, and when.

Related: no-vig calculator · NFL futures cost · parlay vig calculator · break-even calculator.

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