Skip to main content
Audit
RECEIPTS OVER PICKS · every pick logged before game time · line at publish captured · closing line tracked · 539 graded · wins AND losses public · full ledger open·

What Changed? · market facts

Fight Week: what the market did before Saturday

The Jul 25–26 slate — UFC Abu Dhabi and the Spence–Tszyu weekend. Below is how each fight’s no-vig fair probability has moved, day by day, with timestamps. These are market facts — what the prices did — not picks, and not a prediction of who wins.

Corrected 2026-07-29: an earlier version of this page understated market movement due to a data-read defect — Spence–Tszyu moved 7.6 fair-probability points (Tszyu 48.6% → 41.1%), not 0.3. Twenty-three bouts were missing entirely and the latest-sweep timestamp was four days stale. Corrected data below.

Tracking since Jul 20 · daily snapshots (≈08:00 UTC), not tick data · latest sweep Jul 27, 00:01 UTC. “Fair” = the book’s margin removed; a truer implied chance, not a forecast.

Biggest market moves

UFCMarkus Perez vs Vanilto Antunes

Vanilto Antunes’s fair probability moved from 44.2% (Jul 23) to 76.2% (Jul 24) — a +31.9 pts shift. Price +110 → -400 across 1 book.

UFCDaniel Da Silva vs Andre Ewell

Andre Ewell’s fair probability moved from 44.2% (Jul 23) to 57.1% (Jul 24) — a +12.9 pts shift. Price +110 → -145 across 1 book.

UFCIslam Dulatov vs Wellington Turman

Islam Dulatov’s fair probability moved from 75.8% (Jul 20) to 87.2% (Jul 25) — a +11.4 pts shift. Price -732.5 → -1050 across 6 books.

BoxingKashaun Davis vs Mihai Nistor

Mihai Nistor’s fair probability moved from 35.2% (Jul 24) to 43.7% (Jul 26) — a +8.5 pts shift. Price +160 → +109 across 3 books.

UFCJames Martin vs Joey Hart

Joey Hart’s fair probability moved from 59.6% (Jul 24) to 51.5% (Jul 25) — a -8.1 pts shift. Price -160 → -117 across 1 book.

Stable this week

These bouts barely moved (under 1.0 fair-prob point) — the market is settled on them. Stated as a finding, not dressed up as movement.

  • Abubakar Vagaev vs Saygid Izagakhmaev — 67.9% / 32.1% fair, -0.6 pts
  • Magomed Ankalaev vs Bogdan Guskov — 80.9% / 19.1% fair, +0.3 pts
  • Ziyad Almaayouf vs Frank Lucian Mango — 26.6% / 73.4% fair, -0.3 pts
  • Eliezer Kubanza vs Chris Mixan — 55.6% / 44.4% fair, +0.2 pts
  • Jacob Bank vs Pawel August — 90.3% / 9.7% fair, +0.1 pts
  • Troy Nash vs Ethan Perez — 16.1% / 83.9% fair, +0.1 pts
  • Tyson Fury vs Mariusz Wach — 4.6% / 95.4% fair, 0.0 pts
  • Nishant Dev vs Cesar Diaz — 95.4% / 4.6% fair, 0.0 pts
  • Mikie Tallon vs Orlando Pino — 7.3% / 92.7% fair, 0.0 pts
  • Oleksandr Khyzhniak vs Lenny Patrach — 7.3% / 92.7% fair, 0.0 pts
  • Demetrius Andrade vs Douglas Ataide — 11.2% / 88.8% fair, 0.0 pts
  • Tina Rahimi vs Sacha Ryan Dryden — 15.8% / 84.2% fair, 0.0 pts

Day by day — top 3 movers

Vanilto Antunes (Markus Perez vs Vanilto Antunes)

Jul 23

44.3%

+110 · 1bk

Jul 23

52.9%

-135 · 1bk

Jul 23

52.9%

-135 · 1bk

Jul 23

69.2%

-300 · 1bk

Jul 23

73.7%

-400 · 1bk

Jul 24

76.2%

-400 · 1bk

Jul 24

76.2%

-400 · 1bk

Jul 24

76.2%

-400 · 1bk

Jul 24

76.2%

-400 · 1bk

Jul 24

76.2%

-400 · 1bk

Andre Ewell (Daniel Da Silva vs Andre Ewell)

Jul 23

44.3%

+110 · 1bk

Jul 23

45.2%

+105 · 1bk

Jul 23

45.2%

+105 · 1bk

Jul 23

45.2%

+105 · 1bk

Jul 23

45.2%

+105 · 1bk

Jul 24

48.9%

-105 · 1bk

Jul 24

53.3%

-125 · 1bk

Jul 24

52.6%

-122 · 1bk

Jul 24

52.6%

-122 · 1bk

Jul 24

57.1%

-145 · 1bk

Islam Dulatov (Islam Dulatov vs Wellington Turman)

Jul 20

75.8%

-732.5 · 8bk

Jul 20

76.5%

-850 · 8bk

Jul 21

76.7%

-875 · 8bk

Jul 22

86.6%

-975 · 8bk

Jul 23

86.7%

-1000 · 8bk

Jul 23

86.7%

-1000 · 8bk

Jul 23

87.0%

-1000 · 8bk

Jul 24

87.0%

-1000 · 8bk

Jul 24

87.0%

-1000 · 8bk

Jul 24

87.0%

-1000 · 8bk

Jul 24

87.0%

-1000 · 8bk

Jul 24

87.1%

-1000 · 8bk

Jul 25

87.4%

-1025 · 8bk

Jul 25

87.5%

-1075 · 8bk

Jul 25

87.4%

-1075 · 8bk

Jul 25

87.2%

-1050 · 6bk

Full slate — every bout

Consensus no-vig fair probability at first vs latest capture. Bouts with a single capture show the current price only — no movement claim.

BoutFirstLatestFair ΔBooks
Markus Perez vs Vanilto AntunesUFC · Jul 2444.2%+110 · Jul 2376.2%-400 · Jul 24+31.9 pts1
Daniel Da Silva vs Andre EwellUFC · Jul 2444.2%+110 · Jul 2357.1%-145 · Jul 24+12.9 pts1
Islam Dulatov vs Wellington TurmanUFC · Jul 2575.8%-732.5 · Jul 2087.2%-1050 · Jul 25+11.4 pts6
Kashaun Davis vs Mihai NistorBoxing · Jul 2635.2%+160 · Jul 2443.7%+109 · Jul 26+8.5 pts3
James Martin vs Joey HartUFC · Jul 2559.6%-160 · Jul 2451.5%-117 · Jul 25-8.1 pts1
Errol Spence Jr vs Tim TszyuBoxing · Jul 2648.6%-110 · Jul 2041.1%+133 · Jul 26-7.6 pts4
Nurullo Aliev vs Mike DavisUFC · Jul 2560.0%-168 · Jul 2066.9%-227.5 · Jul 25+6.9 pts8
Edgar Berlanga vs Steven ButlerBoxing · Jul 2770.1%-270 · Jul 2076.4%-400 · Jul 27+6.3 pts5
Callum Peters vs Ivan Ricardo ActisBoxing · Jul 2589.0%-1500 · Jul 2295.0%-10000 · Jul 26+6.0 pts2
Kashaun Davis vs Mihai NestorBoxing · Jul 2635.4%+164 · Jul 2541.2%+126 · Jul 26+5.8 pts1
Thad Jean vs Ernesto RodriguezUFC · Jul 2519.4%+395 · Jul 2413.7%+607.5 · Jul 26-5.7 pts2
Stephen Fulton vs Liam WilsonBoxing · Jul 2672.0%-325 · Jul 2066.4%-245 · Jul 25-5.6 pts3
Kegan Gennrich vs Jose MendezUFC · Jul 2526.9%+260 · Jul 2421.4%+350 · Jul 25-5.5 pts1
Cody Gibson vs Abdul HusseinUFC · Jul 2576.6%-400 · Jul 2082.0%-600 · Jul 25+5.4 pts8
Bryce Meredith vs Michael CyrUFC · Jul 2523.8%+300 · Jul 2318.5%+420 · Jul 26-5.3 pts2
Tyson Pedro vs Rafael AlvesUFC · Jul 2550.0%-110 · Jul 2345.0%+113.5 · Jul 26-5.0 pts2
Magomed Zaynukov vs Damian RzepeckiUFC · Jul 2524.6%+285 · Jul 2029.5%+222.5 · Jul 25+4.9 pts8
Arnold Gonzalez vs Emiliano MorenoBoxing · Jul 2668.4%-265 · Jul 2473.3%-375 · Jul 26+4.9 pts4
Paulo Aokuso vs Luis Antonio TejedaBoxing · Jul 2577.2%-450 · Jul 2281.6%-700 · Jul 25+4.4 pts5
Paul Fleming vs Ahmad RedaBoxing · Jul 2528.0%+237 · Jul 2223.7%+298 · Jul 26-4.3 pts2
Rizvan Kuniev vs Tyrell FortuneUFC · Jul 2569.8%-265 · Jul 2074.0%-334.5 · Jul 25+4.2 pts8
Sam Alvey vs Uriah HallUFC · Jul 2429.3%+215 · Jul 2325.2%+275 · Jul 24-4.1 pts1
Ezayah Gomez Oropeza vs Luther EgersonUFC · Jul 2585.2%-800 · Jul 2489.4%-1400 · Jul 25+4.1 pts1
Noah Hermosillo vs Jacob PaisUFC · Jul 2574.9%-357.5 · Jul 2478.6%-437.5 · Jul 26+3.7 pts2
Aline Pereira vs Juliana VelasquezUFC · Jul 2464.3%-225 · Jul 2360.7%-170 · Jul 24-3.6 pts1
Josh Kelly vs Caoimhin AgyarkoBoxing · Jul 2575.7%-400 · Jul 2079.0%-515 · Jul 25+3.3 pts5
Hamzah Sheeraz vs Simon ZachenhuberBoxing · Jul 2590.6%-2500 · Jul 2093.5%-5000 · Jul 25+2.9 pts5
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Sam PattersonUFC · Jul 2523.0%+315 · Jul 2020.2%+372 · Jul 25-2.8 pts8
Sergiy Derevyanchenko vs Jalil HackettBoxing · Jul 2641.2%+126 · Jul 2038.5%+143 · Jul 26-2.7 pts5
Reito Tsutsumi vs Alvino Herrera MezaBoxing · Jul 2586.5%-1000 · Jul 2183.8%-700 · Jul 25-2.7 pts3
Magomed Tuchalov vs Brendson RibeiroUFC · Jul 2583.6%-700 · Jul 2086.2%-900 · Jul 25+2.6 pts7
Sullivan Cauley vs Rasul MagomedovUFC · Jul 2569.4%-255 · Jul 2372.0%-290 · Jul 26+2.6 pts1
Dominique Francis vs Hector Andres SosaBoxing · Jul 2661.4%-180 · Jul 2459.0%-165.5 · Jul 26-2.4 pts4
Chad Yard vs Coby BradfordUFC · Jul 2675.6%-380 · Jul 2477.7%-425 · Jul 26+2.1 pts2
Anthony Joshua vs Kristian PrengaBoxing · Jul 256.9%+1400 · Jul 208.9%+1000 · Jul 25+2.0 pts3
Nkosi Ndebele vs Brandon DavisUFC · Jul 2510.1%+850 · Jul 238.1%+1100 · Jul 26-2.0 pts2
Dustin Jacoby vs Muhammad SaidUFC · Jul 2540.6%+137 · Jul 2238.8%+148.5 · Jul 25-1.9 pts8
Stephen Erceg vs Ramazonbek TemirovUFC · Jul 2548.6%-105 · Jul 2050.0%-109.5 · Jul 25+1.4 pts6
Valter Walker vs Thomas PetersenUFC · Jul 2563.4%-193.5 · Jul 2062.1%-183 · Jul 25-1.3 pts8
Dylan Diebitz vs Preston LagrangeUFC · Jul 2535.7%+170 · Jul 2434.5%+180 · Jul 25-1.2 pts1
Ismael Bonfim vs Axel SolaUFC · Jul 2562.5%-183.5 · Jul 2063.6%-195 · Jul 25+1.1 pts8
Otto Wallin vs Vladyslav SirenkoBoxing · Jul 2637.9%+146 · Jul 2036.8%+160 · Jul 26-1.1 pts5
Richardson Hitchins vs Ricardo Salas RodriguezBoxing · Jul 2786.0%-1075 · Jul 2085.0%-900 · Jul 27-1.0 pts5
Abubakar Vagaev vs Saygid IzagakhmaevUFC · Jul 2568.5%-250 · Jul 2267.9%-239 · Jul 25-0.6 pts8
Magomed Ankalaev vs Bogdan GuskovUFC · Jul 2580.6%-550 · Jul 2080.9%-550 · Jul 25+0.3 pts8
Ziyad Almaayouf vs Frank Lucian MangoBoxing · Jul 2526.9%+254 · Jul 2426.6%+254 · Jul 25-0.3 pts3
Eliezer Kubanza vs Chris MixanUFC · Jul 2655.4%-137 · Jul 2455.6%-137 · Jul 26+0.2 pts2
Jacob Bank vs Pawel AugustBoxing · Jul 2590.2%-2000 · Jul 2290.3%-2000 · Jul 25+0.1 pts3
Troy Nash vs Ethan PerezBoxing · Jul 2616.0%+483 · Jul 2316.1%+483 · Jul 26+0.1 pts5
Tyson Fury vs Mariusz WachBoxing · Jul 244.6%+2000 · Jul 204.6%+2000 · Jul 240.0 pts1
Nishant Dev vs Cesar DiazBoxing · Jul 2595.4%-10000 · Jul 2295.4%-10000 · Jul 250.0 pts1
Mikie Tallon vs Orlando PinoBoxing · Jul 257.3%+1200 · Jul 237.3%+1200 · Jul 250.0 pts1
Oleksandr Khyzhniak vs Lenny PatrachBoxing · Jul 257.3%+1200 · Jul 237.3%+1200 · Jul 250.0 pts1
Demetrius Andrade vs Douglas AtaideBoxing · Jul 2511.2%+730 · Jul 2411.2%+730 · Jul 250.0 pts1
Tina Rahimi vs Sacha Ryan DrydenBoxing · Jul 2515.8%+483 · Jul 2415.8%+483 · Jul 250.0 pts3
Thad Jean vs Shamil MusaevUFC · Jul 25 · 1 capture42.9%+125 · Jul 2342.9%+125 · Jul 23—1

Showing the side that moved most per bout. 43 bout(s) moved ≥ 1.0 pt · 12 stable · 1 single-capture.

Methodology

  • • Source. A daily archive of combat-sport prices (UFC + boxing), swept once each morning (≈08:00 UTC) since Jul 20. Daily snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two sweeps and we would only see the endpoints.
  • • Fair probability. Each book’s two-sided price has its margin removed (no-vig), then averaged across books in probability space — never by averaging the American prices. A movement figure needs a complete two-sided price at both captures; single-sided markets show the price only.
  • • Movement. The change in that fair probability between a side’s first and latest capture, in percentage points. A bout with one capture bucket makes no movement claim.
  • • What this is not. Not a pick, not a prediction, and no read on why a price moved. Prices move for many reasons; this page reports only that they did, and when.

Related: no-vig calculator · NFL futures cost · parlay vig calculator · break-even calculator.

For entertainment purposes only · 21+ · Only bet what you can afford to lose · 1-800-GAMBLER

Get the weekly ledger

Wins and losses, all public — in your inbox.

Minimum age varies by location. This site is education and entertainment only.