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Break-Even Calculator
Every price carries a break-even win rate — the share of bets you must win just to come out even, before the book’s margin. It’s simply the price’s implied probability. Enter odds to see it, with the arithmetic shown.
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Break-even win rate
52.38%
win this share of your bets at this price and you break even long-run
implied probability = 110 ÷ (110 + 100) = 52.38%
Break-even by price
| American | Break-even win rate |
|---|---|
| -300 | 75.00% |
| -200 | 66.67% |
| -150 | 60.00% |
| -120 | 54.55% |
| -110 | 52.38% |
| +100 | 50.00% |
| +110 | 47.62% |
| +120 | 45.45% |
| +150 | 40.00% |
| +200 | 33.33% |
| +300 | 25.00% |
Why −110 needs 52.38%
- • The formula. For a negative price, break-even = |odds| ÷ (|odds| + 100). For −110 that is 110 ÷ 210 = 52.38%. For a positive price, it’s 100 ÷ (odds + 100).
- • What it means. A standard −110 line isn’t a coin flip you need to win half of — you need to win 52.38% just to stay even. That extra 2.38% over 50% is the margin working against you every bet.
- • Decimal odds. In decimal form it’s even simpler: break-even = 1 ÷ decimal. A 1.91 price gives 1 ÷ 1.91 = 52.36%, the same line.
- • Long-run only. This is a mathematical property of the price, not a prediction — it says nothing about any single bet or who wins.
Related tools: no-vig calculator · parlay vig calculator · futures vig · what is the vig.
For entertainment purposes only · 21+ · Only bet what you can afford to lose · 1-800-GAMBLER
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