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How much vig is hidden in Super Bowl futures?
A Super Bowl winner future looks like one simple bet, but the book’s margin is spread across all 32 teams — and it’s large. Below is the real, dated field from 5 US books, showing exactly how much the book keeps across the whole field. This is a cost the market is built to hold, not a pick — it makes no claim about who wins.
What the book keeps across the 32-team field
20.0% – 22.7%
the house edge built into this market across 5 sportsbooks — BetMGM keeps the least, DraftKings the most. The range proves it’s structural, not one greedy book.
| Sportsbook | Book margin | Priced (UTC) |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 20.0% | Jul 21, 2026, 18:22 UTC |
| BetOnline.ag | 21.0% | Jul 21, 2026, 18:25 UTC |
| FanDuel | 22.2% | Jul 21, 2026, 18:21 UTC |
| BetRivers | 22.4% | Jul 21, 2026, 18:22 UTC |
| DraftKings | 22.7% | Jul 21, 2026, 18:23 UTC |
For comparison, a standard game line (−110 both sides) is priced to keep about 4.8% — computed the same way (implied probabilities summed, minus one). Even the tightest Super Bowl book (BetMGM) keeps about 4× that. The more outcomes a market spans and the longer the book holds your stake, the more margin it builds in.
The real field
DraftKings · full 32-team market · captured Jul 21, 2026, 18:26 UTC. “No-vig fair” removes the book’s margin from the field — a truer implied chance, not a prediction.
| Team | DraftKings price | No-vig fair |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | +550 | 12.5% |
| Buffalo Bills | +1000 | 7.4% |
| Baltimore Ravens | +1000 | 7.4% |
| Seattle Seahawks | +1100 | 6.8% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +1600 | 4.8% |
| New England Patriots | +1600 | 4.8% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +1600 | 4.8% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +1700 | 4.5% |
| Houston Texans | +1800 | 4.3% |
| Green Bay Packers | +1800 | 4.3% |
| San Francisco 49ers | +1900 | 4.1% |
| Detroit Lions | +1900 | 4.1% |
| Denver Broncos | +2000 | 3.9% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +2000 | 3.9% |
| Chicago Bears | +2400 | 3.3% |
| Dallas Cowboys | +2500 | 3.1% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +3000 | 2.6% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +5000 | 1.6% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +5000 | 1.6% |
| Minnesota Vikings | +5000 | 1.6% |
| Washington Commanders | +6000 | 1.3% |
| Indianapolis Colts | +6000 | 1.3% |
| New York Giants | +7000 | 1.1% |
| New Orleans Saints | +9000 | 0.9% |
| Carolina Panthers | +9000 | 0.9% |
| Tennessee Titans | +13000 | 0.6% |
| Atlanta Falcons | +13000 | 0.6% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +15000 | 0.5% |
| New York Jets | +20000 | 0.4% |
| Cleveland Browns | +20000 | 0.4% |
| Miami Dolphins | +35000 | 0.2% |
| Arizona Cardinals | +50000 | 0.2% |
Why the margin is so high
- • Many outcomes, each carrying margin. A game line has two sides; a Super Bowl future has 32. The book adds a little edge to every one, and it adds up across the whole field.
- • A long hold. Money placed in July sits with the book until February. A wider margin compensates the book for carrying that position for months.
- • Harder to line-shop. Casual bettors rarely compare futures across books — so the margin, which the table above shows varies by book, often goes unnoticed.
Related: parlay vig calculator · what is the vig. This page shows the cost of a bet, not a prediction of the result.
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