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How much vig is hidden in Super Bowl futures?

A Super Bowl winner future looks like one simple bet, but the book’s margin is spread across all 32 teams — and it’s large. Below is the real, dated field from 5 US books, showing exactly how much the book keeps across the whole field. This is a cost the market is built to hold, not a pick — it makes no claim about who wins.

What the book keeps across the 32-team field

20.0%22.7%

the house edge built into this market across 5 sportsbooks — BetMGM keeps the least, DraftKings the most. The range proves it’s structural, not one greedy book.

SportsbookBook marginPriced (UTC)
BetMGM20.0%Jul 21, 2026, 18:22 UTC
BetOnline.ag21.0%Jul 21, 2026, 18:25 UTC
FanDuel22.2%Jul 21, 2026, 18:21 UTC
BetRivers22.4%Jul 21, 2026, 18:22 UTC
DraftKings22.7%Jul 21, 2026, 18:23 UTC

For comparison, a standard game line (−110 both sides) is priced to keep about 4.8% — computed the same way (implied probabilities summed, minus one). Even the tightest Super Bowl book (BetMGM) keeps about 4× that. The more outcomes a market spans and the longer the book holds your stake, the more margin it builds in.

The real field

DraftKings · full 32-team market · captured Jul 21, 2026, 18:26 UTC. “No-vig fair” removes the book’s margin from the field — a truer implied chance, not a prediction.

TeamDraftKings priceNo-vig fair
Los Angeles Rams+55012.5%
Buffalo Bills+10007.4%
Baltimore Ravens+10007.4%
Seattle Seahawks+11006.8%
Philadelphia Eagles+16004.8%
New England Patriots+16004.8%
Kansas City Chiefs+16004.8%
Los Angeles Chargers+17004.5%
Houston Texans+18004.3%
Green Bay Packers+18004.3%
San Francisco 49ers+19004.1%
Detroit Lions+19004.1%
Denver Broncos+20003.9%
Cincinnati Bengals+20003.9%
Chicago Bears+24003.3%
Dallas Cowboys+25003.1%
Jacksonville Jaguars+30002.6%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers+50001.6%
Pittsburgh Steelers+50001.6%
Minnesota Vikings+50001.6%
Washington Commanders+60001.3%
Indianapolis Colts+60001.3%
New York Giants+70001.1%
New Orleans Saints+90000.9%
Carolina Panthers+90000.9%
Tennessee Titans+130000.6%
Atlanta Falcons+130000.6%
Las Vegas Raiders+150000.5%
New York Jets+200000.4%
Cleveland Browns+200000.4%
Miami Dolphins+350000.2%
Arizona Cardinals+500000.2%

Why the margin is so high

  • Many outcomes, each carrying margin. A game line has two sides; a Super Bowl future has 32. The book adds a little edge to every one, and it adds up across the whole field.
  • A long hold. Money placed in July sits with the book until February. A wider margin compensates the book for carrying that position for months.
  • Harder to line-shop. Casual bettors rarely compare futures across books — so the margin, which the table above shows varies by book, often goes unnoticed.

Related: parlay vig calculator · what is the vig. This page shows the cost of a bet, not a prediction of the result.

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