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How much does an NFL futures bet really cost?
A Super Bowl future looks like one simple bet, but the book’s margin is spread across all 32 teams — and it’s large. Below is the real, dated field from 6 US books: how far the prices sum past 100% (overround), the share of every dollar the book keeps (hold), what that costs on a $100 stake, and how much the price for the same team differs book to book. These are market facts, not a pick — this page makes no claim about who wins.
Overround (field sums past 100%)
18.0% – 22.7%
Σ implied probabilities − 1, across all 32 teams
Hold (what the book keeps)
15.2% – 18.5%
overround ÷ (1 + overround) — always smaller than overround
Put in dollars: for every $100 staked into this market, the book’s built-in margin is about $15.24 – $18.47 (the hold), depending on the book — Bovada keeps the least, DraftKings the most.
What this does not mean: it isn’t a per-bet loss you’re promised, and it says nothing about which team wins. It’s the structural margin priced into the whole field — a cost the market is built to hold, before any result.
| Sportsbook | Overround | Hold | Priced (UTC) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada | 18.0% | 15.2% | Jul 22, 2026, 17:20 UTC |
| BetMGM | 20.0% | 16.7% | Jul 22, 2026, 17:21 UTC |
| BetOnline.ag | 21.0% | 17.4% | Jul 22, 2026, 17:21 UTC |
| FanDuel | 22.2% | 18.2% | Jul 22, 2026, 17:22 UTC |
| BetRivers | 22.4% | 18.3% | Jul 22, 2026, 17:21 UTC |
| DraftKings | 22.7% | 18.5% | Jul 22, 2026, 17:19 UTC |
For comparison, a standard game line (−110 both sides) is priced to keep about 4.8% overround / 4.5% hold — computed the same way. Even the tightest Super Bowl book (Bovada) holds about 4× that. The more outcomes a market spans and the longer the book holds your stake, the more margin it builds in.
Same team, different price
The book keeps more when bettors don’t compare. Below, the top favorites priced across all 6 books — best vs worst payout on a $100 stake. The same gap runs the whole field.
| Team | Best price (book) | Worst price (book) | Payout gap / $100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | +550 FanDuel | +500 BetOnline.ag | $50 |
| Buffalo Bills | +1200 Bovada | +1000 BetOnline.ag | $200 |
| Baltimore Ravens | +1200 Bovada | +1000 BetRivers | $200 |
| Seattle Seahawks | +1200 FanDuel | +1100 BetOnline.ag | $100 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +2000 Bovada | +1600 DraftKings | $400 |
| New England Patriots | +2000 BetOnline.ag | +1600 DraftKings | $400 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +1600 FanDuel | +1500 BetRivers | $100 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +1800 BetOnline.ag | +1600 FanDuel | $200 |
The real field
DraftKings · full 32-team market · captured Jul 22, 2026, 17:22 UTC. “No-vig fair” removes the book’s margin from the field — a truer implied chance, not a prediction.
| Team | DraftKings price | No-vig fair |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | +550 | 12.5% |
| Buffalo Bills | +1000 | 7.4% |
| Baltimore Ravens | +1000 | 7.4% |
| Seattle Seahawks | +1100 | 6.8% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +1600 | 4.8% |
| New England Patriots | +1600 | 4.8% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +1600 | 4.8% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +1700 | 4.5% |
| Houston Texans | +1800 | 4.3% |
| Green Bay Packers | +1800 | 4.3% |
| San Francisco 49ers | +1900 | 4.1% |
| Detroit Lions | +1900 | 4.1% |
| Denver Broncos | +2000 | 3.9% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +2000 | 3.9% |
| Chicago Bears | +2400 | 3.3% |
| Dallas Cowboys | +2500 | 3.1% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +3000 | 2.6% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +5000 | 1.6% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +5000 | 1.6% |
| Minnesota Vikings | +5000 | 1.6% |
| Washington Commanders | +6000 | 1.3% |
| Indianapolis Colts | +6000 | 1.3% |
| New York Giants | +7000 | 1.1% |
| New Orleans Saints | +9000 | 0.9% |
| Carolina Panthers | +9000 | 0.9% |
| Tennessee Titans | +13000 | 0.6% |
| Atlanta Falcons | +13000 | 0.6% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +15000 | 0.5% |
| New York Jets | +20000 | 0.4% |
| Cleveland Browns | +20000 | 0.4% |
| Miami Dolphins | +35000 | 0.2% |
| Arizona Cardinals | +50000 | 0.2% |
Why the margin is so high
- • Many outcomes, each carrying margin. A game line has two sides; a Super Bowl future has 32. The book adds a little to every one, and it adds up across the whole field.
- • A long hold. Money placed in July sits with the book until February. A wider margin compensates the book for carrying that position for months.
- • Harder to compare. Casual bettors rarely check futures across books — so the gap the table above shows often goes unnoticed.
Methodology
- • Source. The Odds API, Super Bowl winner outrights, US region, American odds — captured once on Jul 22, 2026 and frozen. This page is a dated snapshot, not a live feed; prices move over the season.
- • Implied probability. Each American price is converted to an implied probability, then summed across all 32 teams.
- • Overround = Σ implied − 1; hold = overround ÷ (1 + overround). Every figure is computed only when the full 32-team field is present — a partial field would understate the margin, so the calculation refuses it.
- • No-vig fair. Each team’s implied probability divided by the field total; these sum to 100%. A truer chance, not a forecast.
- • Best vs worst. The longest and shortest price for each team across the 6 books, with the resulting payout difference on a $100 stake.
Related tools: no-vig calculator · parlay vig calculator · break-even calculator · Super Bowl futures vig. This page shows the cost of a bet, not a prediction of the result.
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