NFL · 1,320 games · 2021-2025
One NFL game in seven ends on exactly 3 points
3 is the most common winning margin by a distance, and 7 is second. Field goals and touchdowns make some numbers far more likely than others, which is why a half point near 3 or 7 matters.
How often each margin happened
Winning margin, 1 to 21 points. 4 games were ties and 200 were won by 22 or more.
See 3 and 7 by season
| Season | Games | On 3 | On 7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 269 | 42 (15.6%) | 19 (7.1%) |
| 2022 | 281 | 47 (16.7%) | 23 (8.2%) |
| 2023 | 202 | 23 (11.4%) | 16 (7.9%) |
| 2024 | 284 | 39 (13.7%) | 19 (6.7%) |
| 2025 | 284 | 46 (16.2%) | 26 (9.2%) |
2023 carries 202 of about 285 games: the results join is incomplete that season. Stated, not filled in.
Why 2.5, 3 and 3.5 are different bets
When the favourite wins by exactly 3, the same result covers one line, pushes the next and loses the third. In games that closed near 3, that happened about once in every 10 to 15.
- Line of 2.5: the favourite won by exactly 3 in 13 of 136 games (9.6%).At this line, that result means the favourite covers.
- Line of 3: the favourite won by exactly 3 in 13 of 196 games (6.6%).At this line, that result means a push: the bet is refunded.
- Line of 3.5: the favourite won by exactly 3 in 12 of 126 games (9.5%).At this line, that result means the favourite misses by half a point.
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What this is, and what it is not
- • How often margins happened, not a prediction. Final scores of 1,320 games, measured 2026-10-27.
- • No picks here, and no claim that any line is mispriced. A half point costs a different price at different books; this page measures how often the result lands on it, not what it is worth to pay.
How it was measured
The same games as our home-field study. The close is the median spread across US books at the closing snapshot, so one book quoting an alternate line does not move it.
-- one closing snapshot per game: US books, gate-eligible, not superseded, seasons 2021-2025 -- per game: MEDIAN home-team spread across books at the close -- joined to market_data finals by game id, home team matched by name (same selection as the home-field study) -- margin = |home score - away score|; "favourite won by 3" = the team giving points won by exactly 3
Related: NFL home field, priced vs delivered · key numbers for totals · break-even calculator
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