NFL · 1,320 games · 2021-2025
Home field is worth about 1.6 points now, not 3
The betting line gives the home team about 1.6 points. Home teams have won by about 2.2. That is close enough to call it priced about right.
The price has been falling
Hollow dot: what the line gave the home team. Green dot: what home teams won by, with its range. Down to 1.4 in 2025.
See the numbers by season
| Season | Games | Line gave | Won by | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 269 | 1.7 | 1.6 ± 1.8 | 46.8% |
| 2022 | 281 | 1.8 | 2.2 ± 1.5 | 50.0% |
| 2023 | 202 | 1.7 | 3.2 ± 2.1 | 52.3% |
| 2024 | 284 | 1.6 | 2.3 ± 1.7 | 50.7% |
| 2025 | 284 | 1.4 | 2.0 ± 1.6 | 51.2% |
| All | 1,320 | 1.6 | 2.2 ± 0.8 | 50.1% |
2023 carries 202 of about 285 games: the results join is incomplete that season. Stated, not filled in.
Best and worst at home, against the line
Lions lead at +3.4 points a game. But every team’s range crosses the line: about 40 home games cannot tell a real home-field advantage from luck.
Show all 32 teams
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What this is, and what it is not
- • The league number is home field itself. Every team plays home and away, so team strength cancels out.
- • A team’s number is not. It mixes home field with a team the market was slow to rate (Detroit improved sharply over these seasons), so this page claims no team-specific value.
- • No picks here. Closing prices and final scores, measured 2026-10-26.
How it was measured
The close is the median spread across US books at the closing snapshot, so one book quoting an alternate line does not move it. Washington counts as one franchise (7 home games as the Football Team in 2021, 32 as the Commanders). Neutral-site games are not removed. The delivered range for all five seasons is 1.4 to 3.0 points.
-- one closing snapshot per game: US books, gate-eligible, not superseded, seasons 2021-2025 -- per game: MEDIAN home-team spread across books at the close -- joined to market_data finals by game id, home team matched by name -- home ATS margin = (home score - away score) + closing home spread
Related: this season’s home field, team by team · how far lines move before kickoff · methodology
For entertainment purposes only · 21+ · Only bet what you can afford to lose · 1-800-GAMBLER