Market record · completed games
The biggest moves we have recorded
How far the de-vigged price travelled between the first snapshot we recorded and the last one before kickoff, across games that have finished. Ranked by size of move within each sport, in probability points, over however much history we hold — stated below, and currently less than a full week. It describes what the market did, not what happened in the game.
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What this covers
193 of 205 completed games carry enough anchored observations to describe a move · 65.72 days of capture
Coverage is uneven by sport and is stated per sport for that reason. A sport with few completed games is not a sport with few moves — it is a sport we have not watched finish yet.
NCAAF · ranked by size of move
Ranked within NCAAF only. Sports are never ranked against each other.
30.3 pts — moved toward Arizona State Sun Devils by 30.3 points, 6/6 anchors
11.6 pts — moved away from Kansas Jayhawks by 11.6 points, 6/6 anchors
7.6 pts — moved toward Mississippi State Bulldogs by 7.6 points, 6/6 anchors
6.4 pts — moved away from Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders by 6.4 points, 6/6 anchors
5.2 pts — moved toward Northern Illinois Huskies by 5.2 points, 6/6 anchors
3.7 pts — moved away from Nevada Wolf Pack by 3.7 points, 6/6 anchors
3.6 pts — moved away from Central Michigan Chippewas by 3.6 points, 6/6 anchors
3.4 pts — moved away from Toledo Rockets by 3.4 points, 6/6 anchors
3.2 pts — moved toward Western Kentucky Hilltoppers by 3.2 points, 6/6 anchors
3.0 pts — moved away from UCF Knights by 3.0 points, 6/6 anchors
NFL · ranked by size of move
Ranked within NFL only. Sports are never ranked against each other.
6.9 pts — moved away from Baltimore Ravens by 6.9 points, 6/6 anchors
2.5 pts — moved toward Minnesota Vikings by 2.5 points, 6/6 anchors
1.6 pts — moved away from New York Jets by 1.6 points, 6/6 anchors
1.5 pts — moved toward Detroit Lions by 1.5 points, 6/6 anchors
1.4 pts — moved toward New Orleans Saints by 1.4 points, 6/6 anchors
1.3 pts — moved toward Carolina Panthers by 1.3 points, 6/6 anchors
1.1 pts — moved toward Seattle Seahawks by 1.1 points, 6/6 anchors
0.7 pts — moved away from Green Bay Packers by 0.7 points, 6/6 anchors
0.5 pts — moved away from Tennessee Titans by 0.5 points, 6/6 anchors
0.4 pts — moved toward Philadelphia Eagles by 0.4 points, 6/6 anchors
MLB · ranked by size of move
Ranked within MLB only. Sports are never ranked against each other.
3.3 pts — moved toward Tampa Bay Rays by 3.3 points, 5/6 anchors
1.0 pts — moved away from Milwaukee Brewers by 1.0 points, 5/6 anchors
0.8 pts — moved toward Tampa Bay Rays by 0.8 points, 5/6 anchors
0.2 pts — moved away from Tampa Bay Rays by 0.2 points, 6/6 anchors
UFC · ranked by size of move
Ranked within UFC only. Sports are never ranked against each other.
26.0 pts — moved toward Petr Yan by 26.0 points, 6/6 anchors
2.1 pts — moved toward Bolaji Oki by 2.1 points, 6/6 anchors
1.4 pts — moved toward Nicolle Caliari by 1.4 points, 6/6 anchors
1.0 pts — moved toward Aaron Pico by 1.0 points, 6/6 anchors
0.5 pts — moved away from Nikita Krylov by 0.5 points, 6/6 anchors
0.4 pts — moved away from Abusupyian Magomedov by 0.4 points, 6/6 anchors
0.4 pts — moved away from Azamat Murzakanov by 0.4 points, 6/6 anchors
0.3 pts — moved toward Alexander Volkov by 0.3 points, 6/6 anchors
0.1 pts — moved toward Asaf Chopurov by 0.1 points, 6/6 anchors
0.1 pts — moved away from Lone'er Kavanagh by 0.1 points, 6/6 anchors
NHL · ranked by size of move
Ranked within NHL only. Sports are never ranked against each other.
4.3 pts — moved away from Colorado Avalanche by 4.3 points, 6/6 anchors
4.0 pts — moved away from Edmonton Oilers by 4.0 points, 6/6 anchors
4.0 pts — moved away from Seattle Kraken by 4.0 points, 6/6 anchors
3.9 pts — moved toward New Jersey Devils by 3.9 points, 6/6 anchors
3.6 pts — moved away from Edmonton Oilers by 3.6 points, 6/6 anchors
3.3 pts — moved toward Calgary Flames by 3.3 points, 6/6 anchors
3.3 pts — moved toward Calgary Flames by 3.3 points, 6/6 anchors
3.0 pts — moved away from Pittsburgh Penguins by 3.0 points, 6/6 anchors
2.8 pts — moved away from Seattle Kraken by 2.8 points, 6/6 anchors
2.7 pts — moved away from St Louis Blues by 2.7 points, 6/6 anchors
Soccer · ranked by size of move
Ranked within Soccer only. Sports are never ranked against each other.
6.3 pts — moved away from Chelsea by 6.3 points, 6/6 anchors
5.5 pts — moved toward Crystal Palace by 5.5 points, 6/6 anchors
4.4 pts — moved away from Manchester United by 4.4 points, 6/6 anchors
2.9 pts — moved toward Sunderland by 2.9 points, 6/6 anchors
1.9 pts — moved toward Aston Villa by 1.9 points, 6/6 anchors
0.9 pts — moved toward Liverpool by 0.9 points, 6/6 anchors
0.9 pts — moved away from Hull City by 0.9 points, 6/6 anchors
0.1 pts — moved away from Coventry City by 0.1 points, 6/6 anchors
0.0 pts — moved no net change for Arsenal, 6/6 anchors
Not ranked yet: NBA. Counted in coverage above; ranked once measured clear on completed games.
Lines that held
These games did not clear the bar for a movement chart. That is a fact about the market, not a gap in the data, so they are listed rather than dropped.
Movsar Evloev vs Alex Volkanovski — held at 50.1% across 2847 snapshots (2 distinct prices, below the bar)
Iowa State Cyclones vs Arizona Wildcats — held at 73.3% across 470 snapshots (2 distinct prices, below the bar)
Juliano Prescendo vs Ansar Khamzaev — held at — across 109 snapshots
Wildemar Santos vs Sharaf Davlatmurodov — held at — across 106 snapshots
Shealor Ladd vs Matt Adams — held at — across 105 snapshots
Lance Wright vs David Wright — held at — across 104 snapshots
Florida Panthers vs Winnipeg Jets — held at 45.9% across 72 snapshots (2 distinct prices, below the bar)
Santos Verdinez vs Tom Picciano — held at — across 46 snapshots
Alberth Bahamondes vs Joey Hart — held at — across 45 snapshots
Vince Morales vs Daniel Da Silva — held at — across 7 snapshots
Khaseyn Shaykhaev vs Joshua Weems — held at — across 7 snapshots
Florida Gators vs Georgia Bulldogs — held at — across 1 snapshots
How to read this, and what it is not
- • “First observed”, not “opening line”. Capture began 2026-08-26. The earliest snapshot is the first price this system saw, which is not where the market opened — that happened before the capture existed.
- • Probability points, not cents. American prices are discontinuous across ±100, so equal cent-moves are unequal probability moves. Every figure here is de-vigged implied probability.
- • Ranked by size, not direction. A move toward a side and a move away from it are equally large market events. Direction is reported; the ranking does not favour either.
- • No interpolation. Each anchor is the last real snapshot at or before its mark, with the offset shown on the per-game view. A missing anchor stays missing.
- • It says nothing about results. A line moving a long way does not mean the market was wrong, or right, or that anyone should have acted. These games are already finished and nothing here is a selection.
Related: CLV calculator · NCAAF book disagreement.
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