NFL · 2026 season · refreshed weekly
NFL home field this season: priced vs delivered, by team
So far this season the closing line gave home teams 1.6 points and home teams won by -0.4 (give or take 2.4) over 108 games; 10 teams have a range that clears the line.
Every team at home, against the line
Dot: the average margin against the closing number. Band: its 95% range. A band that crosses the centre line cannot be told from luck; 20 of 30 charted do.
The numbers, team by team
| Team | Home games | Line gave | Won by | Against the line | Standard error | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| League | 108 | 1.6 | -0.4 | −2.1 | 1.1 | 42 of 100 (+8 pushes) |
| Patriots | 3 | 5.0 | 17.3 | +12.3 | 7.1 | 2 of 2 (+1 push) |
| Chiefs | 3 | 4.9 | 13.3 | +8.4 | 6.4 | 2 of 3 |
| Jaguars | 4 | 5.5 | 13.0 | +7.5 | 7.9 | 2 of 4 |
| Bears | 4 | 1.9 | 7.8 | +5.9 | 7.0 | 3 of 4 |
| Browns | 3 | -2.7 | 3.0 | +5.7 | 0.3 | 3 of 3 |
| Giants | 4 | -1.0 | 4.5 | +5.5 | 4.6 | 3 of 4 |
| Steelers | 3 | 2.2 | 7.3 | +5.2 | 2.5 | 3 of 3 |
| Broncos | 3 | -0.3 | 4.7 | +5.0 | 0.3 | 3 of 3 |
| Packers | 4 | 1.5 | 5.3 | +3.8 | 10.6 | 3 of 4 |
| 49ers | 4 | 7.6 | 11.0 | +3.4 | 2.7 | 2 of 4 |
| Vikings | 3 | 6.2 | 9.3 | +3.2 | 6.3 | 1 of 3 |
| Seahawks | 4 | 4.0 | 6.0 | +2.0 | 4.2 | 1 of 2 (+2 pushes) |
| Raiders | 4 | -2.6 | -1.5 | +1.1 | 4.4 | 3 of 4 |
| Jets | 3 | 1.0 | -0.3 | −1.3 | 2.7 | 1 of 2 (+1 push) |
| Bills | 3 | 6.5 | 5.0 | −1.5 | 4.4 | 2 of 3 |
| Cowboys | 3 | 3.5 | 2.0 | −1.5 | 8.8 | 1 of 2 (+1 push) |
| Commanders | 3 | -3.3 | -5.0 | −1.7 | 6.6 | 1 of 3 |
| Lions | 3 | 6.0 | 3.7 | −2.3 | 1.9 | 0 of 2 (+1 push) |
| Buccaneers | 4 | 0.4 | -5.3 | −5.6 | 2.5 | 0 of 3 (+1 push) |
| Eagles | 4 | -1.1 | -7.5 | −6.4 | 2.7 | 0 of 4 |
| Rams | 4 | 6.5 | -0.8 | −7.3 | 8.3 | 1 of 4 |
| Titans | 4 | -3.5 | -10.8 | −7.3 | 4.7 | 1 of 4 |
| Colts | 3 | 0.7 | -7.3 | −8.0 | 5.8 | 1 of 3 |
| Falcons | 4 | -0.6 | -9.3 | −8.6 | 8.2 | 1 of 4 |
| Texans | 4 | 3.6 | -7.3 | −10.9 | 3.2 | 0 of 4 |
| Saints | 4 | -0.3 | -11.3 | −11.0 | 4.1 | 0 of 4 |
| Ravens | 3 | 5.7 | -7.7 | −13.3 | 4.0 | 0 of 3 |
| Panthers | 3 | -1.5 | -15.3 | −13.8 | 12.8 | 1 of 3 |
| Chargers | 3 | 4.0 | -10.0 | −14.0 | 5.8 | 0 of 3 |
| Cardinals | 3 | -4.6 | -20.7 | −16.1 | 3.3 | 0 of 3 |
| Bengalstoo few games (needs 3) | 2 | 3.0 | 0.5 | −2.5 | 5.0 | 1 of 2 |
| Dolphinstoo few games (needs 3) | 2 | -8.3 | -10.5 | −2.3 | 2.3 | 0 of 1 (+1 push) |
Points. “Line gave” is the closing home spread with its sign flipped; “Won by” is the final home margin; “Against the line” is the second minus the first. The standard error is how far a team’s average could sit from its long-run value by chance; it is large at this sample size. A team with fewer than 3 home games is greyed and says so.
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What this is, and what it is not
- • A tracker, not a conclusion. A season has about 8 or 9 home games a team. Early in the year that is a handful, and a handful cannot separate a real home-field effect from luck.
- • The league number is home field itself; a team’s number is not. Every team plays home and away, so team strength cancels across the league. For one team it mixes home field with how well the market had rated it.
- • No picks here. Closing prices and final scores only.
The five completed seasons, 2021-2025 (1,320 games), are measured the same way on NFL home field advantage: what the line charges vs what teams deliver.
How it was measured
Measured 2026-10-31 04:56 UTC, through the game of 2026-10-30. 108 home games counted (a close and a final). The close is the median spread across US books at the closing snapshot, so one book quoting an alternate line does not move it. The season is bounded by kickoff time, not by a season label. Neutral-site games are not removed. Washington counts as one franchise. Refreshed daily from stored rows; the games change weekly.
-- public.nfl_home_field_season(p_since, p_until) (migration 110); season window = kickoff >= 2026-08-01 -- one closing snapshot per game: NFL, anchor 'close', region 'us', gate-eligible, not superseded; one row per game id -- the season is bounded by commence_time of that row, never by a season label and never by game_date -- per game: MEDIAN home-team spread across books at the close (a book counts when it quotes the home team by name) -- finals: market_data joined by game id, status 'final', home team matched by name -- priced = minus the closing home spread; delivered = home score minus away score -- home ATS margin = delivered - priced; covered = margin above the number, pushed = exactly on it
Related: NFL key numbers · methodology
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