Movement archive · market facts
What the market did before July 24, 2026
Boxing and UFC — 5 bouts. Below is how each fight’s no-vig fair probability moved between its first and latest capture, with timestamps. These are market facts — what the prices did — not picks, not predictions, and no read on who won.
14 snapshots across 5 days (Jul 20 – Jul 24), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen. Latest capture Jul 24, 18:00 UTC. “Fair” = the book’s margin removed; a truer implied chance, not a forecast.
Biggest market moves
Vanilto Antunes’s fair probability moved from 44.2% (Jul 23) to 76.2% (Jul 24) — a +31.9 pts shift. Price +110 → -400 across 1 book.
Andre Ewell’s fair probability moved from 44.2% (Jul 23) to 57.1% (Jul 24) — a +12.9 pts shift. Price +110 → -145 across 1 book.
Sam Alvey’s fair probability moved from 29.3% (Jul 23) to 25.2% (Jul 24) — a -4.1 pts shift. Price +215 → +275 across 1 book.
Aline Pereira’s fair probability moved from 64.3% (Jul 23) to 60.7% (Jul 24) — a -3.6 pts shift. Price -225 → -170 across 1 book.
Stable on this slate
These bouts barely moved (under 1.0 fair-prob point). Stated as a finding, not dressed up as movement.
- Tyson Fury vs Mariusz Wach — 4.6% / 95.4% fair, 0.0 pts
Capture by capture — top 3 movers
Vanilto Antunes (Markus Perez vs Vanilto Antunes)
Jul 23
44.3%
+110 · 1bk
Jul 23
52.9%
-135 · 1bk
Jul 23
52.9%
-135 · 1bk
Jul 23
69.2%
-300 · 1bk
Jul 23
73.7%
-400 · 1bk
Jul 24
76.2%
-400 · 1bk
Jul 24
76.2%
-400 · 1bk
Jul 24
76.2%
-400 · 1bk
Jul 24
76.2%
-400 · 1bk
Jul 24
76.2%
-400 · 1bk
Andre Ewell (Daniel Da Silva vs Andre Ewell)
Jul 23
44.3%
+110 · 1bk
Jul 23
45.2%
+105 · 1bk
Jul 23
45.2%
+105 · 1bk
Jul 23
45.2%
+105 · 1bk
Jul 23
45.2%
+105 · 1bk
Jul 24
48.9%
-105 · 1bk
Jul 24
53.3%
-125 · 1bk
Jul 24
52.6%
-122 · 1bk
Jul 24
52.6%
-122 · 1bk
Jul 24
57.1%
-145 · 1bk
Sam Alvey (Sam Alvey vs Uriah Hall)
Jul 23
29.3%
+215 · 1bk
Jul 23
29.3%
+215 · 1bk
Jul 23
29.3%
+215 · 1bk
Jul 23
29.3%
+215 · 1bk
Jul 23
28.2%
+240 · 1bk
Jul 24
27.6%
+250 · 1bk
Jul 24
25.0%
+285 · 1bk
Jul 24
25.4%
+280 · 1bk
Jul 24
25.4%
+280 · 1bk
Jul 24
25.3%
+275 · 1bk
Full slate — every bout
Consensus no-vig fair probability at first vs latest capture. Bouts with a single capture show the current price only — no movement claim.
| Bout | First | Latest | Fair Δ | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Markus Perez vs Vanilto AntunesUFC · Jul 24 | 44.2%+110 · Jul 23 | 76.2%-400 · Jul 24 | +31.9 pts | 1 |
| Daniel Da Silva vs Andre EwellUFC · Jul 24 | 44.2%+110 · Jul 23 | 57.1%-145 · Jul 24 | +12.9 pts | 1 |
| Sam Alvey vs Uriah HallUFC · Jul 24 | 29.3%+215 · Jul 23 | 25.2%+275 · Jul 24 | -4.1 pts | 1 |
| Aline Pereira vs Juliana VelasquezUFC · Jul 24 | 64.3%-225 · Jul 23 | 60.7%-170 · Jul 24 | -3.6 pts | 1 |
| Tyson Fury vs Mariusz WachBoxing · Jul 24 | 4.6%+2000 · Jul 20 | 4.6%+2000 · Jul 24 | 0.0 pts | 1 |
Showing the side that moved most per bout. 4 bout(s) moved ≥ 1.0 pt · 1 stable · 0 single-capture.
Methodology
- • Source. An archive of combat-sport prices (UFC + boxing) captured from multiple books over time. 14 snapshots across 5 days (Jul 20 – Jul 24), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen.
- • Fair probability. Each book’s two-sided price has its margin removed (no-vig), then averaged across books in probability space — never by averaging the American prices. A movement figure needs a complete two-sided price at both captures; single-sided markets show the price only.
- • Movement. The change in that fair probability between a side’s first and latest capture, in percentage points. A bout with one capture makes no movement claim.
- • What this is not. Not a pick, not a prediction, no read on why a price moved, and no result — this page does not say who won. Prices move for many reasons; it reports only that they did, and when.
Related: all archived slates · no-vig calculator · parlay vig calculator.
For entertainment purposes only · 21+ · Only bet what you can afford to lose · 1-800-GAMBLER