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Movement archive · market facts

What the market did before July 26, 2026

Boxing and UFC — 21 bouts. Below is how each fight’s no-vig fair probability moved between its first and latest capture, with timestamps. These are market facts — what the prices did — not picks, not predictions, and no read on who won.

19 snapshots across 7 days (Jul 20 – Jul 26), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen. Latest capture Jul 26, 18:00 UTC. “Fair” = the book’s margin removed; a truer implied chance, not a forecast.

Biggest market moves

BoxingKashaun Davis vs Mihai Nistor

Mihai Nistor’s fair probability moved from 35.2% (Jul 24) to 43.7% (Jul 26) — a +8.5 pts shift. Price +160 → +109 across 3 books.

BoxingErrol Spence Jr vs Tim Tszyu

Tim Tszyu’s fair probability moved from 48.6% (Jul 20) to 41.1% (Jul 26) — a -7.6 pts shift. Price -110 → +133 across 4 books.

BoxingStephen Fulton vs Liam Wilson

Stephen Fulton’s fair probability moved from 72.0% (Jul 20) to 66.4% (Jul 25) — a -5.6 pts shift. Price -325 → -245 across 3 books.

UFCBryce Meredith vs Michael Cyr

Michael Cyr’s fair probability moved from 23.5% (Jul 24) to 18.5% (Jul 26) — a -5.0 pts shift. Price +305 → +420 across 2 books.

BoxingArnold Gonzalez vs Emiliano Moreno

Emiliano Moreno’s fair probability moved from 68.4% (Jul 24) to 73.3% (Jul 26) — a +4.9 pts shift. Price -265 → -375 across 4 books.

Stable on this slate

These bouts barely moved (under 1.0 fair-prob point). Stated as a finding, not dressed up as movement.

  • Eliezer Kubanza vs Chris Mixan — 55.6% / 44.4% fair, +0.2 pts
  • Troy Nash vs Ethan Perez — 16.1% / 83.9% fair, +0.1 pts
  • Valter Walker vs Thomas Petersen — 62.2% / 37.8% fair, -0.1 pts
  • Paulo Aokuso vs Luis Antonio Tejeda — 81.6% / 18.4% fair, 0.0 pts

Capture by capture — top 3 movers

Mihai Nistor (Kashaun Davis vs Mihai Nistor)

Jul 24

35.2%

+160 · 3bk

Jul 25

37.4%

+143 · 3bk

Jul 25

37.4%

+143 · 3bk

Jul 25

37.4%

+143 · 3bk

Jul 25

37.4%

+143 · 3bk

Jul 25

39.0%

+128 · 3bk

Jul 26

38.1%

+136 · 3bk

Jul 26

38.6%

+132 · 3bk

Jul 26

38.1%

+136 · 3bk

Jul 26

38.9%

+130 · 3bk

Jul 26

43.8%

+109 · 3bk

Tim Tszyu (Errol Spence Jr vs Tim Tszyu)

Jul 20

48.6%

-110 · 3bk

Jul 20

48.0%

-105 · 3bk

Jul 21

49.0%

-110 · 3bk

Jul 22

48.3%

-105 · 3bk

Jul 23

48.7%

-107 · 4bk

Jul 24

47.9%

-102 · 4bk

Jul 24

47.9%

-102 · 4bk

Jul 24

47.9%

+101 · 4bk

Jul 24

48.7%

-105 · 4bk

Jul 25

47.4%

+104 · 4bk

Jul 25

46.3%

+107.5 · 4bk

Jul 25

46.3%

+107.5 · 4bk

Jul 25

46.3%

+107 · 4bk

Jul 25

44.0%

+121 · 4bk

Jul 26

41.1%

+133 · 4bk

Stephen Fulton (Stephen Fulton vs Liam Wilson)

Jul 20

72.0%

-325 · 3bk

Jul 20

72.0%

-325 · 3bk

Jul 21

74.6%

-375 · 3bk

Jul 22

74.6%

-375 · 4bk

Jul 23

72.8%

-315 · 4bk

Jul 24

72.5%

-300 · 5bk

Jul 24

71.5%

-300 · 5bk

Jul 24

69.4%

-265 · 5bk

Jul 24

68.9%

-265 · 3bk

Jul 25

66.4%

-245 · 3bk

Full slate — every bout

Consensus no-vig fair probability at first vs latest capture. Bouts with a single capture show the current price only — no movement claim.

BoutFirstLatestFair ΔBooks
Kashaun Davis vs Mihai NistorBoxing · Jul 2635.2%+160 · Jul 2443.7%+109 · Jul 26+8.5 pts3
Errol Spence Jr vs Tim TszyuBoxing · Jul 2648.6%-110 · Jul 2041.1%+133 · Jul 26-7.6 pts4
Stephen Fulton vs Liam WilsonBoxing · Jul 2672.0%-325 · Jul 2066.4%-245 · Jul 25-5.6 pts3
Bryce Meredith vs Michael CyrUFC · Jul 2623.5%+305 · Jul 2418.5%+420 · Jul 26-5.0 pts2
Arnold Gonzalez vs Emiliano MorenoBoxing · Jul 2668.4%-265 · Jul 2473.3%-375 · Jul 26+4.9 pts4
Paul Fleming vs Ahmad RedaBoxing · Jul 2628.5%+222 · Jul 2523.7%+298 · Jul 26-4.8 pts2
Callum Peters vs Ivan Ricardo ActisBoxing · Jul 2691.0%-2500 · Jul 2595.0%-10000 · Jul 26+4.0 pts2
Noah Hermosillo vs Jacob PaisUFC · Jul 2674.9%-357.5 · Jul 2578.6%-437.5 · Jul 26+3.7 pts2
Sullivan Cauley vs Rasul MagomedovUFC · Jul 2668.9%-250 · Jul 2472.0%-290 · Jul 26+3.1 pts1
Sergiy Derevyanchenko vs Jalil HackettBoxing · Jul 2641.2%+126 · Jul 2038.5%+143 · Jul 26-2.7 pts5
Dominique Francis vs Hector Andres SosaBoxing · Jul 2661.4%-180 · Jul 2459.0%-165.5 · Jul 26-2.4 pts4
Chad Yard vs Coby BradfordUFC · Jul 2675.6%-380 · Jul 2477.7%-425 · Jul 26+2.1 pts2
Nkosi Ndebele vs Brandon DavisUFC · Jul 269.7%+885 · Jul 248.1%+1100 · Jul 26-1.7 pts2
Thad Jean vs Ernesto RodriguezUFC · Jul 2615.0%+545 · Jul 2513.7%+607.5 · Jul 26-1.3 pts2
Otto Wallin vs Vladyslav SirenkoBoxing · Jul 2637.9%+146 · Jul 2036.8%+160 · Jul 26-1.1 pts5
Tyson Pedro vs Rafael AlvesUFC · Jul 2656.1%-141 · Jul 2455.0%-134.5 · Jul 26-1.0 pts2
Eliezer Kubanza vs Chris MixanUFC · Jul 2655.4%-137 · Jul 2455.6%-137 · Jul 26+0.2 pts2
Troy Nash vs Ethan PerezBoxing · Jul 2616.0%+483 · Jul 2316.1%+483 · Jul 26+0.1 pts5
Valter Walker vs Thomas PetersenUFC · Jul 2662.3%-184.5 · Jul 2462.2%-183.5 · Jul 25-0.1 pts8
Paulo Aokuso vs Luis Antonio TejedaBoxing · Jul 2681.6%-700 · Jul 2581.6%-700 · Jul 250.0 pts5
Tina Rahimi vs Sacha Ryan DrydenBoxing · Jul 26 · 1 capture84.2%-800 · Jul 2584.2%-800 · Jul 25—3

Showing the side that moved most per bout. 16 bout(s) moved ≥ 1.0 pt · 4 stable · 1 single-capture.

Methodology

  • • Source. An archive of combat-sport prices (UFC + boxing) captured from multiple books over time. 19 snapshots across 7 days (Jul 20 – Jul 26), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen.
  • • Fair probability. Each book’s two-sided price has its margin removed (no-vig), then averaged across books in probability space — never by averaging the American prices. A movement figure needs a complete two-sided price at both captures; single-sided markets show the price only.
  • • Movement. The change in that fair probability between a side’s first and latest capture, in percentage points. A bout with one capture makes no movement claim.
  • • What this is not. Not a pick, not a prediction, no read on why a price moved, and no result — this page does not say who won. Prices move for many reasons; it reports only that they did, and when.
  • • Feed duplicates. 1 duplicate feed listing excluded — the same fight appeared under a second event id with a misspelled name. The listing with the most books is kept; the other is excluded rather than merged, because rows under different event ids cannot be combined into one consensus without inventing a capture.

Related: all archived slates · no-vig calculator · parlay vig calculator.

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