Movement archive · market facts
What the market did before July 31, 2026
UFC — 11 bouts. Below is how each fight’s no-vig fair probability moved between its first and latest capture, with timestamps. These are market facts — what the prices did — not picks, not predictions, and no read on who won.
11 snapshots across 3 days (Jul 29 – Jul 31), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen. Latest capture Jul 31, 18:02 UTC. “Fair” = the book’s margin removed; a truer implied chance, not a forecast.
Biggest market moves
Simeon Powell’s fair probability moved from 49.1% (Jul 29) to 42.2% (Jul 30) — a -6.9 pts shift. Price -115 → +126 across 1 book.
Sean Gauci’s fair probability moved from 65.2% (Jul 29) to 69.9% (Jul 31) — a +4.8 pts shift. Price -240 → -267.5 across 2 books.
Usman Nurmagomedov’s fair probability moved from 80.5% (Jul 29) to 77.5% (Jul 30) — a -2.9 pts shift. Price -650 → -495 across 2 books.
Lazaro Dayron’s fair probability moved from 61.6% (Jul 29) to 59.8% (Jul 31) — a -1.8 pts shift. Price -190 → -163 across 2 books.
Joel Alvarez’s fair probability moved from 8.9% (Jul 29) to 7.5% (Jul 31) — a -1.4 pts shift. Price +950 → +1200 across 2 books.
Stable on this slate
These bouts barely moved (under 1.0 fair-prob point). Stated as a finding, not dressed up as movement.
- Montana De La Rosa vs Tatiana Postarnakova — 31.3% / 68.7% fair, +0.5 pts
- Jonathan Piersma vs Omar El Dafrawy — 38.8% / 61.2% fair, -0.5 pts
- Dakota Ditcheva vs Denise Kielholtz — 6.4% / 93.6% fair, +0.4 pts
- Darryl Walker vs Moustapha Diakhate — 74.3% / 25.7% fair, +0.1 pts
- Chamy Delva vs Levan Khabalaev — 15.8% / 84.2% fair, 0.0 pts
Capture by capture — top 3 movers
Simeon Powell (Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov vs Simeon Powell)
Jul 29
49.0%
-115 · 1bk
Jul 30
41.9%
+125.5 · 2bk
Jul 30
42.8%
+120.5 · 2bk
Jul 30
42.2%
+126 · 1bk
Jul 30
42.2%
+126 · 1bk
Sean Gauci (Sean Gauci vs Allan Begosso)
Jul 29
65.2%
-240 · 1bk
Jul 30
65.0%
-225 · 2bk
Jul 30
65.0%
-225 · 2bk
Jul 30
65.0%
-225 · 2bk
Jul 30
65.0%
-225 · 2bk
Jul 30
65.0%
-225 · 2bk
Jul 31
67.6%
-237.5 · 2bk
Jul 31
68.8%
-252.5 · 2bk
Jul 31
68.8%
-252.5 · 2bk
Jul 31
71.5%
-290 · 2bk
Jul 31
69.9%
-267.5 · 2bk
Usman Nurmagomedov (Usman Nurmagomedov vs Archie Colgan)
Jul 29
80.5%
-650 · 1bk
Jul 30
78.3%
-535 · 2bk
Jul 30
78.4%
-520 · 2bk
Jul 30
78.4%
-520 · 2bk
Jul 30
78.4%
-520 · 2bk
Jul 30
77.5%
-495 · 2bk
Full slate — every bout
Consensus no-vig fair probability at first vs latest capture. Bouts with a single capture show the current price only — no movement claim.
| Bout | First | Latest | Fair Δ | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov vs Simeon PowellUFC · Jul 31 | 49.1%-115 · Jul 29 | 42.2%+126 · Jul 30 | -6.9 pts | 1 |
| Sean Gauci vs Allan BegossoUFC · Jul 31 | 65.2%-240 · Jul 29 | 69.9%-267.5 · Jul 31 | +4.8 pts | 2 |
| Usman Nurmagomedov vs Archie ColganUFC · Jul 31 | 80.5%-650 · Jul 29 | 77.5%-495 · Jul 30 | -2.9 pts | 2 |
| Raufeon Stots vs Lazaro DayronUFC · Jul 31 | 61.6%-190 · Jul 29 | 59.8%-163 · Jul 31 | -1.8 pts | 2 |
| Amru Magomedov vs Joel AlvarezUFC · Jul 31 | 8.9%+950 · Jul 29 | 7.5%+1200 · Jul 31 | -1.4 pts | 2 |
| Montana De La Rosa vs Tatiana PostarnakovaUFC · Jul 31 | 30.8%+200 · Jul 29 | 31.3%+207.5 · Jul 31 | +0.5 pts | 2 |
| Jonathan Piersma vs Omar El DafrawyUFC · Jul 31 | 39.3%+140 · Jul 29 | 38.8%+148.5 · Jul 31 | -0.5 pts | 2 |
| Dakota Ditcheva vs Denise KielholtzUFC · Jul 31 | 6.0%+1500 · Jul 29 | 6.4%+1400 · Jul 30 | +0.4 pts | 2 |
| Darryl Walker vs Moustapha DiakhateUFC · Jul 31 | 74.1%-340 · Jul 31 | 74.3%-340 · Jul 31 | +0.1 pts | 2 |
| Chamy Delva vs Levan KhabalaevUFC · Jul 31 | 15.8%+510 · Jul 31 | 15.8%+510 · Jul 31 | 0.0 pts | 2 |
| Aristides Vinicius Dias vs Alexsandro CangatyUFC · Jul 31 · 1 capture | 22.7%+324 · Jul 31 | 22.7%+324 · Jul 31 | — | 1 |
Showing the side that moved most per bout. 5 bout(s) moved ≥ 1.0 pt · 5 stable · 1 single-capture.
Methodology
- • Source. An archive of combat-sport prices (UFC + boxing) captured from multiple books over time. 11 snapshots across 3 days (Jul 29 – Jul 31), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen.
- • Fair probability. Each book’s two-sided price has its margin removed (no-vig), then averaged across books in probability space — never by averaging the American prices. A movement figure needs a complete two-sided price at both captures; single-sided markets show the price only.
- • Movement. The change in that fair probability between a side’s first and latest capture, in percentage points. A bout with one capture makes no movement claim.
- • What this is not. Not a pick, not a prediction, no read on why a price moved, and no result — this page does not say who won. Prices move for many reasons; it reports only that they did, and when.
Related: all archived slates · no-vig calculator · parlay vig calculator.
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