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Movement archive · market facts

What the market did before August 1, 2026

Boxing and UFC — 42 bouts. Below is how each fight’s no-vig fair probability moved between its first and latest capture, with timestamps. These are market facts — what the prices did — not picks, not predictions, and no read on who won.

23 snapshots across 13 days (Jul 20 – Aug 1), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen. Latest capture Aug 1, 18:00 UTC. “Fair” = the book’s margin removed; a truer implied chance, not a forecast.

Biggest market moves

UFCMateusz Rebecki vs Kyle Prepolec

Mateusz Rebecki’s fair probability moved from 74.3% (Jul 24) to 84.1% (Aug 1) — a +9.8 pts shift. Price -335 → -700 across 8 books.

UFCMiloš Janičić vs Noah Gugnon

Miloš Janičić’s fair probability moved from 58.0% (Jul 26) to 49.7% (Aug 1) — a -8.3 pts shift. Price -150 → -108 across 7 books.

UFCDavid Kozma vs David Zawada

David Kozma’s fair probability moved from 64.4% (Jul 29) to 72.1% (Aug 1) — a +7.7 pts shift. Price -230 → -300 across 1 book.

UFCIvan Klevets vs Kevin Enz

Kevin Enz’s fair probability moved from 38.4% (Jul 31) to 31.1% (Aug 1) — a -7.2 pts shift. Price +150 → +209 across 1 book.

UFCWill Fleury vs Makhmud Muradov

Will Fleury’s fair probability moved from 55.8% (Jul 29) to 62.0% (Aug 1) — a +6.2 pts shift. Price -150 → -177 across 1 book.

Stable on this slate

These bouts barely moved (under 1.0 fair-prob point). Stated as a finding, not dressed up as movement.

  • Gael Cabrera vs Francisco Pedroza — 94.6% / 5.4% fair, -0.8 pts
  • Ben Fail vs Craig O'Brien — 13.4% / 86.6% fair, +0.8 pts
  • Raul Curiel vs Quinton Randall — 85.7% / 14.3% fair, +0.7 pts
  • Joel Iriarte vs Jorge Arturo Lagunas Valencia — 5.2% / 94.8% fair, -0.7 pts
  • Daniel Araujo vs Victor Gabriel — 76.3% / 23.7% fair, -0.6 pts
  • Dylan Capetillo vs Juan Carlos Becerril — 7.5% / 92.5% fair, +0.2 pts
  • Vlasto Cepo vs Gilbert Urbina — 25.3% / 74.7% fair, -0.1 pts
  • Sean McComb vs Miguel Cesario Antin — 4.7% / 95.3% fair, +0.1 pts

Capture by capture — top 3 movers

Mateusz Rebecki (Mateusz Rebecki vs Kyle Prepolec)

Jul 24

74.3%

-335 · 1bk

Jul 25

75.0%

-350 · 1bk

Jul 26

76.9%

-415 · 6bk

Jul 27

78.9%

-482.5 · 8bk

Jul 28

79.6%

-500 · 8bk

Jul 29

80.5%

-542.5 · 8bk

Jul 30

82.6%

-662.5 · 8bk

Jul 31

83.6%

-700 · 8bk

Jul 31

83.6%

-700 · 8bk

Jul 31

83.6%

-700 · 8bk

Jul 31

83.6%

-700 · 8bk

Jul 31

84.0%

-700 · 8bk

Aug 1

84.1%

-700 · 8bk

Aug 1

84.1%

-700 · 8bk

Aug 1

84.1%

-700 · 8bk

Aug 1

84.1%

-700 · 8bk

Miloš Janičić (Miloš Janičić vs Noah Gugnon)

Jul 26

58.0%

-150 · 5bk

Jul 27

53.9%

-128 · 7bk

Jul 28

49.5%

-105 · 7bk

Jul 29

49.4%

-105 · 7bk

Jul 30

48.8%

-105 · 7bk

Jul 30

47.9%

+100 · 7bk

Jul 31

48.1%

+100 · 7bk

Jul 31

48.1%

+100 · 7bk

Jul 31

48.1%

+100 · 7bk

Jul 31

48.0%

+100 · 7bk

Jul 31

47.9%

+100 · 7bk

Aug 1

47.9%

+100 · 7bk

Aug 1

47.9%

+100 · 7bk

Aug 1

48.1%

+100 · 7bk

Aug 1

49.7%

-108 · 7bk

David Kozma (David Kozma vs David Zawada)

Jul 29

64.4%

-230 · 1bk

Jul 30

64.4%

-230 · 1bk

Jul 30

67.2%

-240 · 1bk

Jul 31

67.2%

-240 · 1bk

Jul 31

67.2%

-240 · 1bk

Jul 31

67.2%

-240 · 1bk

Jul 31

67.2%

-240 · 1bk

Jul 31

67.2%

-240 · 1bk

Aug 1

67.9%

-240 · 1bk

Aug 1

72.1%

-300 · 1bk

Aug 1

70.5%

-275 · 1bk

Aug 1

72.1%

-300 · 1bk

Full slate — every bout

Consensus no-vig fair probability at first vs latest capture. Bouts with a single capture show the current price only — no movement claim.

BoutFirstLatestFair ΔBooks
Mateusz Rebecki vs Kyle PrepolecUFC · Aug 174.3%-335 · Jul 2484.1%-700 · Aug 1+9.8 pts8
Miloš Janičić vs Noah GugnonUFC · Aug 158.0%-150 · Jul 2649.7%-108 · Aug 1-8.3 pts7
David Kozma vs David ZawadaUFC · Aug 164.4%-230 · Jul 2972.1%-300 · Aug 1+7.7 pts1
Ivan Klevets vs Kevin EnzUFC · Aug 138.4%+150 · Jul 3131.1%+209 · Aug 1-7.2 pts1
Will Fleury vs Makhmud MuradovUFC · Aug 155.8%-150 · Jul 2962.0%-177 · Aug 1+6.2 pts1
L'udovit Klein vs Tofiq MusayevUFC · Aug 163.8%-193 · Jul 2469.8%-267.5 · Aug 1+5.9 pts8
Usman Nurmagomedov vs Archie ColganUFC · Aug 119.6%+390.5 · Jul 3114.3%+578.5 · Aug 1-5.3 pts2
Daniel Schwindt vs David HosekUFC · Aug 140.8%+130 · Jul 2935.9%+170 · Aug 1-4.9 pts1
Miroslav Broz vs Rafael AronovUFC · Aug 152.0%-125 · Jul 3156.8%-143 · Aug 1+4.7 pts1
Nina Milošević vs Hailey CowanUFC · Aug 176.3%-400 · Jul 2680.6%-535 · Aug 1+4.4 pts7
Jakub Tichota vs Firas DaudUFC · Aug 150.0%-120 · Jul 2945.7%+110 · Aug 1-4.3 pts1
Uros Medic vs Daniel RodriguezUFC · Aug 172.4%-300 · Jul 2476.6%-400 · Aug 1+4.2 pts7
Jan Blachowicz vs Navajo StirlingUFC · Aug 170.2%-265 · Jul 2474.3%-345 · Aug 1+4.0 pts8
Aristides Vinicius Dias vs Alexsandro CangatyUFC · Aug 126.3%+250 · Jul 3022.7%+324 · Aug 1-3.6 pts1
Dusko Todorovic vs Robert ValentinUFC · Aug 156.2%-140 · Jul 2459.7%-165.5 · Aug 1+3.5 pts8
Jovan Leka vs Alexander PoppeckUFC · Aug 132.7%+195 · Jul 2529.2%+228 · Aug 1-3.5 pts8
Oban Elliott vs Michael OliveiraUFC · Aug 121.4%+350 · Jul 2424.7%+287 · Aug 1+3.4 pts8
Royston Barney-Smith vs Reece BellottiBoxing · Aug 118.6%+413 · Jul 2015.3%+465 · Aug 1-3.3 pts5
Aleksandar Rakic vs Marcin TyburaUFC · Aug 127.6%+250 · Jul 2424.3%+305 · Aug 1-3.3 pts8
Herbeth Sousa vs Paulo PortilloUFC · Aug 165.8%-220 · Jul 3069.1%-255 · Aug 1+3.3 pts1
Juan Pablo Vieira vs Eduardo TerencioUFC · Aug 114.5%+550 · Jul 3011.3%+754 · Jul 31-3.2 pts1
Marina Spasić vs Stephanie LucianoUFC · Aug 129.2%+230 · Jul 2626.2%+267 · Aug 1-3.0 pts7
Steven Cairns vs Senan KellyBoxing · Aug 181.4%-588 · Jul 2084.3%-1000 · Aug 1+2.9 pts5
Leonardo Cerboni vs Wily PereiraUFC · Aug 134.8%+165 · Jul 3032.1%+200 · Jul 31-2.8 pts1
Borislav Nikolić vs Mark VologdinUFC · Aug 137.8%+154 · Jul 2935.2%+170 · Aug 1-2.6 pts7
Dennis Buzukja vs Bogdan GradUFC · Aug 133.8%+185 · Jul 2436.2%+166.5 · Aug 1+2.4 pts8
Rayan Kadosoe vs Felipe RosaUFC · Aug 167.7%-280 · Jul 3065.5%-210 · Jul 31-2.3 pts1
Harun Kurt vs Roman PaulusUFC · Aug 150.0%-120 · Jul 2947.8%+100 · Aug 1-2.2 pts1
Pierce O'Leary vs Mark ChamberlainBoxing · Aug 165.5%-221 · Jul 2067.3%-255 · Aug 1+1.8 pts4
Gary Cully vs Lee ReevesBoxing · Aug 158.8%-161 · Jul 2057.5%-155 · Aug 1-1.2 pts5
Bobby Dalton vs Ben CrockerBoxing · Aug 149.5%-112.5 · Jul 3048.3%-5 · Aug 1-1.2 pts4
Dalis Kaleiopu vs Yeyery CastilloBoxing · Aug 16.7%+1333 · Jul 297.8%+1000 · Aug 1+1.1 pts5
Dakota Ditcheva vs Denise KielholtzUFC · Aug 15.7%+1650 · Jul 314.6%+2000 · Jul 31-1.1 pts2
Gael Cabrera vs Francisco PedrozaBoxing · Aug 195.4%-10000 · Jul 2994.6%-10000 · Aug 1-0.8 pts4
Ben Fail vs Craig O'BrienBoxing · Aug 112.6%+628 · Jul 2913.4%+605 · Aug 1+0.8 pts4
Raul Curiel vs Quinton RandallBoxing · Aug 184.9%-1000 · Jul 2785.7%-1000 · Jul 29+0.7 pts2
Joel Iriarte vs Jorge Arturo Lagunas ValenciaBoxing · Aug 15.9%+1400 · Jul 305.2%+1800 · Aug 1-0.7 pts5
Daniel Araujo vs Victor GabrielUFC · Aug 176.9%-500 · Jul 3076.3%-384 · Jul 31-0.6 pts1
Dylan Capetillo vs Juan Carlos BecerrilBoxing · Aug 17.3%+1200 · Jul 307.5%+1200 · Aug 1+0.2 pts3
Vlasto Cepo vs Gilbert UrbinaUFC · Aug 125.4%+280 · Jul 2425.3%+280 · Aug 1-0.1 pts8
Sean McComb vs Miguel Cesario AntinBoxing · Aug 14.6%+2000 · Jul 304.7%+1950 · Aug 1+0.1 pts2
Mark Vologdin vs Josias MusasaUFC · Aug 1 · 1 capture44.7%+115 · Jul 2444.7%+115 · Jul 24—1

Showing the side that moved most per bout. 33 bout(s) moved ≥ 1.0 pt · 8 stable · 1 single-capture.

Methodology

  • • Source. An archive of combat-sport prices (UFC + boxing) captured from multiple books over time. 23 snapshots across 13 days (Jul 20 – Aug 1), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen.
  • • Fair probability. Each book’s two-sided price has its margin removed (no-vig), then averaged across books in probability space — never by averaging the American prices. A movement figure needs a complete two-sided price at both captures; single-sided markets show the price only.
  • • Movement. The change in that fair probability between a side’s first and latest capture, in percentage points. A bout with one capture makes no movement claim.
  • • What this is not. Not a pick, not a prediction, no read on why a price moved, and no result — this page does not say who won. Prices move for many reasons; it reports only that they did, and when.

Related: all archived slates · no-vig calculator · parlay vig calculator.

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