Movement archive · market facts
What the market did before August 2, 2026
Boxing — 4 bouts. Below is how each fight’s no-vig fair probability moved between its first and latest capture, with timestamps. These are market facts — what the prices did — not picks, not predictions, and no read on who won.
22 snapshots across 14 days (Jul 20 – Aug 2), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen. Latest capture Aug 2, 00:03 UTC. “Fair” = the book’s margin removed; a truer implied chance, not a forecast.
Biggest market moves
Paul Kroll’s fair probability moved from 21.6% (Jul 27) to 14.7% (Aug 2) — a -6.9 pts shift. Price +330 → +650 across 3 books.
Lamont Roach’s fair probability moved from 56.8% (Jul 20) to 53.4% (Aug 2) — a -3.4 pts shift. Price -145 → -125 across 7 books.
Robson Conceicao’s fair probability moved from 12.5% (Jul 20) to 9.3% (Aug 2) — a -3.1 pts shift. Price +650 → +1005 across 6 books.
Raul Curiel’s fair probability moved from 88.9% (Jul 30) to 86.8% (Aug 2) — a -2.1 pts shift. Price -1300 → -1000 across 6 books.
Capture by capture — top 3 movers
Paul Kroll (Charles Conwell vs Paul Kroll)
Jul 27
21.6%
+330 · 1bk
Jul 28
21.6%
+330 · 1bk
Jul 29
21.3%
+340 · 2bk
Jul 30
19.3%
+391 · 5bk
Jul 31
18.1%
+425 · 5bk
Jul 31
18.1%
+425 · 5bk
Jul 31
17.8%
+425 · 5bk
Jul 31
17.8%
+425 · 5bk
Aug 1
16.6%
+425 · 5bk
Aug 1
16.9%
+425 · 5bk
Aug 1
16.6%
+425 · 5bk
Aug 1
16.6%
+425 · 5bk
Aug 1
16.5%
+450 · 5bk
Aug 2
14.7%
+650 · 3bk
Lamont Roach (Lamont Roach vs William Zepeda)
Jul 20
56.8%
-145 · 5bk
Jul 20
56.8%
-145 · 5bk
Jul 21
56.8%
-145 · 5bk
Jul 22
56.6%
-145 · 5bk
Jul 23
56.6%
-145 · 5bk
Jul 24
57.1%
-150 · 5bk
Jul 25
57.1%
-150 · 5bk
Jul 26
57.1%
-150 · 5bk
Jul 27
57.9%
-150 · 5bk
Jul 28
58.2%
-150 · 5bk
Jul 29
54.2%
-125 · 5bk
Jul 30
54.4%
-128 · 5bk
Jul 31
56.9%
-150 · 6bk
Jul 31
56.7%
-150 · 6bk
Jul 31
56.7%
-150 · 6bk
Jul 31
55.7%
-142.5 · 6bk
Aug 1
55.7%
-142.5 · 6bk
Aug 1
55.9%
-142.5 · 6bk
Aug 1
55.6%
-142.5 · 6bk
Aug 1
55.4%
-140 · 6bk
Aug 1
53.3%
-133 · 7bk
Aug 2
53.4%
-125 · 7bk
Robson Conceicao (Raymond Muratalla vs Robson Conceicao)
Jul 20
12.5%
+650 · 5bk
Jul 20
12.5%
+650 · 5bk
Jul 21
12.5%
+650 · 5bk
Jul 22
12.1%
+650 · 5bk
Jul 23
12.1%
+650 · 5bk
Jul 24
12.1%
+650 · 5bk
Jul 25
12.1%
+650 · 5bk
Jul 26
11.7%
+800 · 5bk
Jul 27
11.8%
+800 · 5bk
Jul 28
11.7%
+700 · 5bk
Jul 29
11.3%
+770 · 5bk
Jul 30
11.1%
+800 · 5bk
Jul 31
11.3%
+762.5 · 6bk
Jul 31
11.3%
+762.5 · 6bk
Jul 31
11.3%
+762.5 · 6bk
Jul 31
11.3%
+762.5 · 6bk
Aug 1
10.4%
+805 · 6bk
Aug 1
10.4%
+805 · 6bk
Aug 1
10.4%
+805 · 6bk
Aug 1
10.4%
+805 · 6bk
Aug 1
10.3%
+805 · 6bk
Aug 2
9.3%
+1005 · 6bk
Full slate — every bout
Consensus no-vig fair probability at first vs latest capture. Bouts with a single capture show the current price only — no movement claim.
| Bout | First | Latest | Fair Δ | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Conwell vs Paul KrollBoxing · Aug 2 | 21.6%+330 · Jul 27 | 14.7%+650 · Aug 2 | -6.9 pts | 3 |
| Lamont Roach vs William ZepedaBoxing · Aug 2 | 56.8%-145 · Jul 20 | 53.4%-125 · Aug 2 | -3.4 pts | 7 |
| Raymond Muratalla vs Robson ConceicaoBoxing · Aug 2 | 12.5%+650 · Jul 20 | 9.3%+1005 · Aug 2 | -3.1 pts | 6 |
| Raul Curiel vs Quinton RandallBoxing · Aug 2 | 88.9%-1300 · Jul 30 | 86.8%-1000 · Aug 2 | -2.1 pts | 6 |
Showing the side that moved most per bout. 4 bout(s) moved ≥ 1.0 pt · 0 stable · 0 single-capture.
Methodology
- • Source. An archive of combat-sport prices (UFC + boxing) captured from multiple books over time. 22 snapshots across 14 days (Jul 20 – Aug 2), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen.
- • Fair probability. Each book’s two-sided price has its margin removed (no-vig), then averaged across books in probability space — never by averaging the American prices. A movement figure needs a complete two-sided price at both captures; single-sided markets show the price only.
- • Movement. The change in that fair probability between a side’s first and latest capture, in percentage points. A bout with one capture makes no movement claim.
- • What this is not. Not a pick, not a prediction, no read on why a price moved, and no result — this page does not say who won. Prices move for many reasons; it reports only that they did, and when.
Related: all archived slates · no-vig calculator · parlay vig calculator.
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