Movement archive · market facts
What the market did before August 7, 2026
UFC — 6 bouts. Below is how each fight’s no-vig fair probability moved between its first and latest capture, with timestamps. These are market facts — what the prices did — not picks, not predictions, and no read on who won.
10 snapshots across 2 days (Aug 6 – Aug 7), 5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen. Latest capture Aug 7, 18:01 UTC. “Fair” = the book’s margin removed; a truer implied chance, not a forecast.
Biggest market moves
Wilson Lopshire’s fair probability moved from 51.7% (Aug 6) to 44.1% (Aug 7) — a -7.6 pts shift. Price -118.5 → +120 across 3 books.
Valentin Moldavsky’s fair probability moved from 77.2% (Aug 6) to 80.1% (Aug 7) — a +2.8 pts shift. Price -430 → -500 across 3 books.
Trey Waters’s fair probability moved from 67.1% (Aug 6) to 69.7% (Aug 7) — a +2.6 pts shift. Price -232.5 → -265 across 3 books.
Eduardo Neves’s fair probability moved from 43.9% (Aug 6) to 41.7% (Aug 7) — a -2.1 pts shift. Price +118.5 → +130 across 3 books.
Hasan Mezhiev’s fair probability moved from 24.9% (Aug 6) to 23.4% (Aug 7) — a -1.5 pts shift. Price +282.5 → +310 across 3 books.
Capture by capture — top 3 movers
Wilson Lopshire (Jonathan Martin vs Wilson Lopshire)
Aug 6
51.7%
-118.5 · 2bk
Aug 6
45.8%
+108.5 · 2bk
Aug 6
46.4%
+105.5 · 2bk
Aug 6
46.1%
+107 · 2bk
Aug 6
43.6%
+119.5 · 2bk
Aug 7
45.6%
+110 · 3bk
Aug 7
45.4%
+110 · 3bk
Aug 7
44.0%
+115 · 3bk
Aug 7
44.0%
+115 · 3bk
Aug 7
44.1%
+120 · 3bk
Valentin Moldavsky (Valentin Moldavsky vs Bruno Cappelozza)
Aug 6
77.2%
-430 · 2bk
Aug 6
77.1%
-415 · 2bk
Aug 6
77.1%
-415 · 2bk
Aug 6
77.2%
-430 · 2bk
Aug 6
77.1%
-415 · 2bk
Aug 7
78.3%
-450 · 3bk
Aug 7
78.3%
-450 · 3bk
Aug 7
78.3%
-450 · 3bk
Aug 7
79.2%
-500 · 3bk
Aug 7
80.0%
-500 · 3bk
Trey Waters (Trukon Carson vs Trey Waters)
Aug 6
67.1%
-232.5 · 2bk
Aug 6
65.5%
-215 · 2bk
Aug 6
65.5%
-215 · 2bk
Aug 6
65.5%
-215 · 2bk
Aug 6
67.3%
-237.5 · 2bk
Aug 7
67.2%
-232.5 · 2bk
Aug 7
68.2%
-245 · 2bk
Aug 7
68.2%
-245 · 2bk
Aug 7
68.2%
-245 · 2bk
Aug 7
69.7%
-265 · 3bk
Full slate — every bout
Consensus no-vig fair probability at first vs latest capture. Bouts with a single capture show the current price only — no movement claim.
| Bout | First | Latest | Fair Δ | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Martin vs Wilson LopshireUFC · Aug 7 | 51.7%-118.5 · Aug 6 | 44.1%+120 · Aug 7 | -7.6 pts | 3 |
| Valentin Moldavsky vs Bruno CappelozzaUFC · Aug 7 | 77.2%-430 · Aug 6 | 80.1%-500 · Aug 7 | +2.8 pts | 3 |
| Trukon Carson vs Trey WatersUFC · Aug 7 | 67.1%-232.5 · Aug 6 | 69.7%-265 · Aug 7 | +2.6 pts | 3 |
| Eduardo Neves vs Maxwell Djantou NanaUFC · Aug 7 | 43.9%+118.5 · Aug 6 | 41.7%+130 · Aug 7 | -2.1 pts | 3 |
| Denis Goltsov vs Hasan MezhievUFC · Aug 7 | 24.9%+282.5 · Aug 6 | 23.4%+310 · Aug 7 | -1.5 pts | 3 |
| Lewis McGrillen vs Brandon LewisUFC · Aug 7 | 84.9%-850 · Aug 6 | 86.2%-900 · Aug 7 | +1.3 pts | 3 |
Showing the side that moved most per bout. 6 bout(s) moved ≥ 1.0 pt · 0 stable · 0 single-capture.
Methodology
- • Source. An archive of combat-sport prices (UFC + boxing) captured from multiple books over time. 10 snapshots across 2 days (Aug 6 – Aug 7), 5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen.
- • Fair probability. Each book’s two-sided price has its margin removed (no-vig), then averaged across books in probability space — never by averaging the American prices. A movement figure needs a complete two-sided price at both captures; single-sided markets show the price only.
- • Movement. The change in that fair probability between a side’s first and latest capture, in percentage points. A bout with one capture makes no movement claim.
- • What this is not. Not a pick, not a prediction, no read on why a price moved, and no result — this page does not say who won. Prices move for many reasons; it reports only that they did, and when.
Related: all archived slates · no-vig calculator · parlay vig calculator.
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