Movement archive · market facts
What the market did before August 8, 2026
Boxing and UFC — 47 bouts. Below is how each fight’s no-vig fair probability moved between its first and latest capture, with timestamps. These are market facts — what the prices did — not picks, not predictions, and no read on who won.
33 snapshots across 20 days (Jul 20 – Aug 8), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen. Latest capture Aug 8, 18:00 UTC. “Fair” = the book’s margin removed; a truer implied chance, not a forecast.
Biggest market moves
Robbie Ring’s fair probability moved from 40.4% (Aug 5) to 27.6% (Aug 8) — a -12.7 pts shift. Price +140 → +247.5 across 2 books.
Elora Dana’s fair probability moved from 30.5% (Aug 5) to 22.7% (Aug 8) — a -7.8 pts shift. Price +215 → +323 across 2 books.
Sheilla Yama’s fair probability moved from 74.7% (Aug 6) to 82.5% (Aug 8) — a +7.8 pts shift. Price -400 → -700 across 2 books.
Carol Foro’s fair probability moved from 73.7% (Aug 6) to 66.6% (Aug 8) — a -7.1 pts shift. Price -342.5 → -224 across 6 books.
Callum Walsh’s fair probability moved from 78.9% (Jul 22) to 85.8% (Aug 8) — a +6.8 pts shift. Price -500 → -1250 across 3 books.
Stable on this slate
These bouts barely moved (under 1.0 fair-prob point). Stated as a finding, not dressed up as movement.
- Juliana Miller vs Ravena Oliveira — 27.0% / 73.0% fair, -0.9 pts
- Alex Leapai Jnr vs Arsene Fosso — 9.3% / 90.7% fair, -0.9 pts
- Bryan Battle vs Dalton Rosta — 55.4% / 44.6% fair, -0.8 pts
- Desley Robinson vs Tammara Thibeault — 28.3% / 71.7% fair, +0.6 pts
- Louis Greene vs Daniel Buciuc — 89.0% / 11.0% fair, -0.6 pts
- Billy Pickles vs Max Curtis — 60.3% / 39.7% fair, -0.4 pts
- Hassan Azim vs Jack Martin — 86.0% / 14.0% fair, -0.2 pts
- Michael Boylan vs Landry Ward — 71.9% / 28.1% fair, +0.2 pts
- Ted Jackson vs Todd Tompkins — 7.4% / 92.6% fair, +0.1 pts
- Ben Rees vs Marvin Tomlinson — 11.4% / 88.6% fair, +0.1 pts
- Troy Williamson vs Callum Simpson — 41.7% / 58.3% fair, 0.0 pts
- Sam Hickey vs Brad Axe — 94.4% / 5.6% fair, 0.0 pts
- Billy Deniz vs Alex Carter — 95.4% / 4.6% fair, 0.0 pts
- Patrick O'Connor vs Juan Manuel Moriel — 94.3% / 5.7% fair, 0.0 pts
- John Parker vs Nikolas Charalampous — 31.8% / 68.2% fair, 0.0 pts
Capture by capture — top 3 movers
Robbie Ring (Cheyden Leialoha vs Robbie Ring)
Aug 5
40.4%
+140 · 1bk
Aug 5
39.5%
+142.5 · 2bk
Aug 6
35.7%
+169 · 2bk
Aug 6
37.1%
+158.5 · 2bk
Aug 6
37.1%
+158.5 · 2bk
Aug 6
31.0%
+208.5 · 2bk
Aug 7
31.9%
+207 · 3bk
Aug 7
31.1%
+207 · 3bk
Aug 7
29.8%
+223.5 · 2bk
Aug 7
29.5%
+230 · 3bk
Aug 7
27.8%
+245 · 3bk
Aug 8
27.7%
+247.5 · 2bk
Elora Dana (Cheyanne Bowers vs Elora Dana)
Aug 5
30.5%
+215 · 1bk
Aug 5
25.9%
+267.5 · 2bk
Aug 6
25.9%
+270 · 2bk
Aug 6
25.9%
+270 · 2bk
Aug 6
25.9%
+270 · 2bk
Aug 6
25.9%
+270 · 2bk
Aug 7
25.8%
+275 · 3bk
Aug 7
25.2%
+280 · 3bk
Aug 7
25.2%
+280 · 3bk
Aug 7
24.1%
+303 · 3bk
Aug 7
23.2%
+310 · 3bk
Aug 8
22.7%
+323 · 2bk
Sheilla Yama (Sheilla Yama vs Jessica Messina)
Aug 6
74.7%
-400 · 3bk
Aug 6
74.7%
-400 · 3bk
Aug 6
74.7%
-400 · 3bk
Aug 7
74.7%
-400 · 3bk
Aug 7
79.1%
-550 · 3bk
Aug 7
82.0%
-650 · 3bk
Aug 7
81.0%
-600 · 3bk
Aug 7
82.2%
-650 · 3bk
Aug 8
82.0%
-650 · 3bk
Aug 8
82.5%
-700 · 3bk
Aug 8
82.5%
-700 · 2bk
Full slate — every bout
Consensus no-vig fair probability at first vs latest capture. Bouts with a single capture show the current price only — no movement claim.
| Bout | First | Latest | Fair Δ | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheyden Leialoha vs Robbie RingUFC · Aug 8 | 40.4%+140 · Aug 5 | 27.6%+247.5 · Aug 8 | -12.7 pts | 2 |
| Cheyanne Bowers vs Elora DanaUFC · Aug 8 | 30.5%+215 · Aug 5 | 22.7%+323 · Aug 8 | -7.8 pts | 2 |
| Sheilla Yama vs Jessica MessinaBoxing · Aug 8 | 74.7%-400 · Aug 6 | 82.5%-700 · Aug 8 | +7.8 pts | 2 |
| Giovanna Canuto vs Carol ForoUFC · Aug 8 | 73.7%-342.5 · Aug 6 | 66.6%-224 · Aug 8 | -7.1 pts | 6 |
| Callum Walsh vs Tyler DennyBoxing · Aug 8 | 78.9%-500 · Jul 22 | 85.8%-1250 · Aug 8 | +6.8 pts | 3 |
| Lewis McGrillen vs Brandon LewisUFC · Aug 8 | 17.6%+446 · Aug 5 | 11.3%+767 · Aug 8 | -6.3 pts | 2 |
| Valentin Moldavsky vs Bruno CappelozzaUFC · Aug 8 | 29.1%+230 · Aug 5 | 23.8%+299.5 · Aug 5 | -5.3 pts | 2 |
| Diego Krasimirov vs Ashlee EalesBoxing · Aug 8 | 29.0%+200 · Aug 6 | 23.7%+287 · Aug 8 | -5.3 pts | 6 |
| Miles Johns vs Gianni VazquezUFC · Aug 8 | 41.5%+128 · Aug 7 | 36.5%+168 · Aug 8 | -5.0 pts | 7 |
| Joseph Ward vs Artjom KasparianBoxing · Aug 8 | 70.1%-290 · Aug 4 | 65.5%-200 · Aug 8 | -4.6 pts | 3 |
| Gradus Kraus vs Sean HemphillBoxing · Aug 8 | 85.9%-1050 · Aug 2 | 90.2%-1900 · Aug 8 | +4.3 pts | 6 |
| Aaron Mckenna vs Etinosa OlihaBoxing · Aug 8 | 74.3%-376.5 · Jul 20 | 78.5%-492.5 · Aug 8 | +4.2 pts | 4 |
| Joshua Silveira vs Aaron JefferyUFC · Aug 8 | 42.0%+130 · Aug 5 | 37.9%+154.5 · Aug 8 | -4.1 pts | 2 |
| Eduardo Neves vs Maxwell Djantou NanaUFC · Aug 8 | 41.2%+135 · Aug 5 | 45.2%+110.5 · Aug 5 | +4.1 pts | 2 |
| David Nyika vs Floyd MassonBoxing · Aug 8 | 24.9%+280 · Aug 2 | 20.9%+360 · Aug 8 | -4.0 pts | 5 |
| Liam Messam vs Luke SiakiBoxing · Aug 8 | 80.5%-625 · Aug 6 | 84.2%-900 · Aug 8 | +3.7 pts | 3 |
| Josh Fremd vs Jhony GregoryUFC · Aug 8 | 26.7%+260 · Aug 5 | 23.1%+315.5 · Aug 8 | -3.6 pts | 2 |
| Connor Coyle vs Mark BeukeBoxing · Aug 8 | 17.5%+439 · Aug 4 | 20.7%+324 · Aug 8 | +3.3 pts | 4 |
| Shurretta Metcalf vs Amanda GalleBoxing · Aug 8 | 44.2%+16 · Jul 20 | 41.2%+131 · Aug 8 | -3.0 pts | 4 |
| Denis Goltsov vs Hasan MezhievUFC · Aug 8 | 20.8%+360 · Aug 7 | 18.2%+427.5 · Aug 8 | -2.5 pts | 2 |
| Manoel Sousa vs Richie MirandaUFC · Aug 8 | 70.9%-285 · Aug 6 | 73.3%-330 · Aug 8 | +2.4 pts | 8 |
| Louie Sutherland vs Jose MontanhaUFC · Aug 8 | 37.2%+160 · Aug 1 | 34.9%+177 · Aug 8 | -2.3 pts | 8 |
| Miles Johns vs Jessie RosasUFC · Aug 8 | 58.7%-155 · Aug 4 | 56.6%-142 · Aug 7 | -2.1 pts | 1 |
| Steven Asplund vs Guilherme PatUFC · Aug 8 | 71.1%-288 · Aug 6 | 72.9%-315 · Aug 8 | +1.9 pts | 8 |
| Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov vs Simeon PowellUFC · Aug 8 | 42.0%+130 · Aug 5 | 40.4%+139 · Aug 8 | -1.7 pts | 2 |
| Diyar Nurgozhay vs Bruno LopesUFC · Aug 8 | 57.9%-155 · Aug 6 | 59.6%-163.5 · Aug 8 | +1.7 pts | 8 |
| Mauro Silva vs Tyler ChristopherBoxing · Aug 8 | 22.1%+354 · Aug 6 | 23.5%+301.5 · Aug 8 | +1.4 pts | 4 |
| Brad Casey vs Ross McGuiganBoxing · Aug 8 | 6.2%+1600 · Aug 6 | 4.9%+1800 · Aug 8 | -1.3 pts | 3 |
| Stephen Mckenna vs Owen O'NeillBoxing · Aug 8 | 5.7%+1600 · Aug 5 | 6.7%+1600 · Aug 8 | +1.0 pts | 3 |
| Cassidy Thornberry vs Ross MalthusBoxing · Aug 8 | 91.2%-3300 · Aug 6 | 92.2%-4000 · Aug 8 | +1.0 pts | 3 |
| Dainier Pero vs Aleem WhitfieldBoxing · Aug 8 | 93.0%-4000 · Aug 6 | 92.0%-3416.5 · Aug 8 | -1.0 pts | 4 |
| Juliana Miller vs Ravena OliveiraUFC · Aug 8 | 28.0%+240 · Aug 6 | 27.0%+255 · Aug 8 | -0.9 pts | 8 |
| Alex Leapai Jnr vs Arsene FossoBoxing · Aug 8 | 10.2%+1008 · Aug 6 | 9.3%+1075 · Aug 8 | -0.9 pts | 3 |
| Bryan Battle vs Dalton RostaUFC · Aug 8 | 56.2%-140 · Aug 5 | 55.4%-135.5 · Aug 8 | -0.8 pts | 2 |
| Desley Robinson vs Tammara ThibeaultBoxing · Aug 8 | 27.6%+245 · Jul 20 | 28.3%+228 · Jul 31 | +0.6 pts | 3 |
| Louis Greene vs Daniel BuciucBoxing · Aug 8 | 89.6%-1800 · Aug 6 | 89.0%-1800 · Aug 8 | -0.6 pts | 3 |
| Billy Pickles vs Max CurtisBoxing · Aug 8 | 60.7%-175 · Aug 6 | 60.3%-170 · Aug 8 | -0.4 pts | 5 |
| Hassan Azim vs Jack MartinBoxing · Aug 8 | 86.1%-1000 · Aug 5 | 86.0%-1050 · Aug 8 | -0.2 pts | 4 |
| Michael Boylan vs Landry WardUFC · Aug 8 | 71.7%-300 · Aug 6 | 71.9%-297.5 · Aug 8 | +0.2 pts | 2 |
| Ted Jackson vs Todd TompkinsBoxing · Aug 8 | 7.4%+1200 · Aug 6 | 7.4%+1405 · Aug 8 | +0.1 pts | 2 |
| Ben Rees vs Marvin TomlinsonBoxing · Aug 8 | 11.3%+721 · Aug 7 | 11.4%+721 · Aug 8 | +0.1 pts | 4 |
| Troy Williamson vs Callum SimpsonBoxing · Aug 8 | 41.7%+128 · Jul 20 | 41.7%+127 · Aug 8 | 0.0 pts | 6 |
| Sam Hickey vs Brad AxeBoxing · Aug 8 | 94.3%-5000 · Aug 4 | 94.4%-10000 · Aug 8 | 0.0 pts | 3 |
| Billy Deniz vs Alex CarterBoxing · Aug 8 | 95.4%-10000 · Aug 6 | 95.4%-10000 · Aug 8 | 0.0 pts | 1 |
| Patrick O'Connor vs Juan Manuel MorielBoxing · Aug 8 | 94.3%-5000 · Aug 6 | 94.3%-5000 · Aug 8 | 0.0 pts | 2 |
| John Parker vs Nikolas CharalampousBoxing · Aug 8 | 31.8%+200 · Aug 6 | 31.8%+200 · Aug 7 | 0.0 pts | 1 |
| Jan Paul Rivera vs Abraham Perfecto ValdezBoxing · Aug 8 · 1 capture | 92.6%-5000 · Aug 6 | 92.6%-5000 · Aug 6 | — | 5 |
Showing the side that moved most per bout. 31 bout(s) moved ≥ 1.0 pt · 15 stable · 1 single-capture.
Methodology
- • Source. An archive of combat-sport prices (UFC + boxing) captured from multiple books over time. 33 snapshots across 20 days (Jul 20 – Aug 8), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen.
- • Fair probability. Each book’s two-sided price has its margin removed (no-vig), then averaged across books in probability space — never by averaging the American prices. A movement figure needs a complete two-sided price at both captures; single-sided markets show the price only.
- • Movement. The change in that fair probability between a side’s first and latest capture, in percentage points. A bout with one capture makes no movement claim.
- • What this is not. Not a pick, not a prediction, no read on why a price moved, and no result — this page does not say who won. Prices move for many reasons; it reports only that they did, and when.
Related: all archived slates · no-vig calculator · parlay vig calculator.
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