Movement archive · market facts
What the market did before August 9, 2026
Boxing and UFC — 15 bouts. Below is how each fight’s no-vig fair probability moved between its first and latest capture, with timestamps. These are market facts — what the prices did — not picks, not predictions, and no read on who won.
30 snapshots across 21 days (Jul 20 – Aug 9), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen. Latest capture Aug 9, 00:01 UTC. “Fair” = the book’s margin removed; a truer implied chance, not a forecast.
Biggest market moves
Billy Goff’s fair probability moved from 28.8% (Jul 31) to 20.9% (Aug 9) — a -7.9 pts shift. Price +234 → +362 across 8 books.
Desley Robinson’s fair probability moved from 27.7% (Aug 1) to 21.3% (Aug 9) — a -6.5 pts shift. Price +228 → +333 across 5 books.
Alexia Thainara’s fair probability moved from 65.1% (Jul 31) to 71.2% (Aug 9) — a +6.1 pts shift. Price -205 → -289 across 8 books.
Yadier DelValle’s fair probability moved from 81.3% (Jul 31) to 86.5% (Aug 9) — a +5.2 pts shift. Price -550 → -910 across 7 books.
Guilherme Pat’s fair probability moved from 32.9% (Jul 31) to 29.1% (Aug 5) — a -3.8 pts shift. Price +192 → +230 across 8 books.
Stable on this slate
These bouts barely moved (under 1.0 fair-prob point). Stated as a finding, not dressed up as movement.
- Carlos Diego Ferreira vs Billy Quarantillo — 60.7% / 39.3% fair, +0.8 pts
- Manoel Sousa vs Richie Miranda — 69.7% / 30.3% fair, +0.8 pts
- Cherneka Johnson vs Dina Thorslund — 49.1% / 50.9% fair, +0.6 pts
- Krystal Rosado vs Alondra Hernandez Mendoza — 86.0% / 14.0% fair, +0.6 pts
- Diyar Nurgozhay vs Bruno Lopes — 58.1% / 41.9% fair, +0.1 pts
Capture by capture — top 3 movers
Billy Goff (Ty Miller vs Billy Goff)
Jul 31
28.8%
+234 · 1bk
Aug 1
28.8%
+234 · 4bk
Aug 2
28.6%
+236 · 8bk
Aug 3
26.4%
+260 · 8bk
Aug 4
25.4%
+277.5 · 8bk
Aug 5
24.5%
+297.5 · 8bk
Aug 5
24.2%
+304.5 · 8bk
Aug 6
23.7%
+310 · 7bk
Aug 7
23.1%
+315 · 7bk
Aug 7
23.1%
+315 · 7bk
Aug 7
23.1%
+315 · 7bk
Aug 7
23.0%
+315 · 7bk
Aug 8
22.8%
+315 · 7bk
Aug 8
22.8%
+315 · 7bk
Aug 8
22.8%
+315 · 7bk
Aug 8
22.9%
+312.5 · 8bk
Aug 8
22.4%
+327.5 · 8bk
Aug 9
20.9%
+362 · 8bk
Desley Robinson (Desley Robinson vs Tammara Thibeault)
Aug 1
27.8%
+228 · 3bk
Aug 2
27.3%
+243 · 3bk
Aug 3
27.6%
+237 · 5bk
Aug 4
28.1%
+222 · 5bk
Aug 5
23.1%
+275 · 5bk
Aug 5
22.5%
+300 · 5bk
Aug 6
22.5%
+300 · 6bk
Aug 7
22.6%
+300 · 6bk
Aug 7
22.6%
+300 · 6bk
Aug 7
22.1%
+316.5 · 6bk
Aug 7
22.2%
+316.5 · 6bk
Aug 8
22.2%
+316.5 · 6bk
Aug 8
22.2%
+316.5 · 6bk
Aug 8
22.2%
+316.5 · 6bk
Aug 8
22.2%
+316.5 · 6bk
Aug 8
22.2%
+316.5 · 6bk
Aug 9
21.3%
+333 · 5bk
Alexia Thainara (Amanda Lemos vs Alexia Thainara)
Jul 31
65.1%
-205 · 1bk
Aug 1
67.3%
-235 · 4bk
Aug 2
68.0%
-247.5 · 8bk
Aug 3
68.2%
-245 · 8bk
Aug 4
67.9%
-240 · 8bk
Aug 5
68.0%
-245 · 8bk
Aug 5
68.6%
-252.5 · 8bk
Aug 6
69.2%
-262.5 · 8bk
Aug 7
69.3%
-260 · 7bk
Aug 7
69.3%
-260 · 7bk
Aug 7
69.3%
-260 · 7bk
Aug 7
69.3%
-260 · 7bk
Aug 8
69.3%
-260 · 7bk
Aug 8
69.3%
-260 · 7bk
Aug 8
69.3%
-260 · 7bk
Aug 8
69.1%
-260 · 8bk
Aug 8
69.5%
-267.5 · 8bk
Aug 9
71.2%
-289 · 8bk
Full slate — every bout
Consensus no-vig fair probability at first vs latest capture. Bouts with a single capture show the current price only — no movement claim.
| Bout | First | Latest | Fair Δ | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Miller vs Billy GoffUFC · Aug 9 | 28.8%+234 · Jul 31 | 20.9%+362 · Aug 9 | -7.9 pts | 8 |
| Desley Robinson vs Tammara ThibeaultBoxing · Aug 9 | 27.7%+228 · Aug 1 | 21.3%+333 · Aug 9 | -6.5 pts | 5 |
| Amanda Lemos vs Alexia ThainaraUFC · Aug 9 | 65.1%-205 · Jul 31 | 71.2%-289 · Aug 9 | +6.1 pts | 8 |
| Darren Elkins vs Yadier DelValleUFC · Aug 9 | 81.3%-550 · Jul 31 | 86.5%-910 · Aug 9 | +5.2 pts | 7 |
| Steven Asplund vs Guilherme PatUFC · Aug 9 | 32.9%+192 · Jul 31 | 29.1%+230 · Aug 5 | -3.8 pts | 8 |
| Juliana Miller vs Ravena OliveiraUFC · Aug 9 | 67.4%-235 · Jul 31 | 71.0%-290 · Aug 5 | +3.6 pts | 8 |
| Jan Paul Rivera vs Abraham Perfecto ValdezBoxing · Aug 9 | 92.6%-5000 · Aug 7 | 89.7%-2400 · Aug 9 | -2.9 pts | 1 |
| Mateusz Gamrot vs Quillan SalkilldUFC · Aug 9 | 45.7%+110 · Jul 31 | 43.6%+122 · Aug 9 | -2.2 pts | 8 |
| Shurretta Metcalf vs Amanda GalleBoxing · Aug 9 | 41.2%+131 · Aug 8 | 39.1%+147.5 · Aug 9 | -2.1 pts | 4 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira vs Billy QuarantilloUFC · Aug 9 | 59.9%-162 · Jul 31 | 60.7%-175 · Aug 9 | +0.8 pts | 7 |
| Manoel Sousa vs Richie MirandaUFC · Aug 9 | 68.9%-255 · Aug 3 | 69.7%-266 · Aug 5 | +0.8 pts | 8 |
| Cherneka Johnson vs Dina ThorslundBoxing · Aug 9 | 48.6%-107.5 · Jul 20 | 49.1%-112 · Aug 9 | +0.6 pts | 6 |
| Krystal Rosado vs Alondra Hernandez MendozaBoxing · Aug 9 | 85.4%-900 · Aug 5 | 86.0%-1000 · Aug 9 | +0.6 pts | 5 |
| Diyar Nurgozhay vs Bruno LopesUFC · Aug 9 | 58.0%-150 · Jul 31 | 58.1%-155 · Aug 5 | +0.1 pts | 8 |
| Dainier Pero vs Aleem WhitfieldBoxing · Aug 9 · 1 capture | 92.0%-4500 · Aug 9 | 92.0%-4500 · Aug 9 | — | 1 |
Showing the side that moved most per bout. 9 bout(s) moved ≥ 1.0 pt · 5 stable · 1 single-capture.
Methodology
- • Source. An archive of combat-sport prices (UFC + boxing) captured from multiple books over time. 30 snapshots across 21 days (Jul 20 – Aug 9), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen.
- • Fair probability. Each book’s two-sided price has its margin removed (no-vig), then averaged across books in probability space — never by averaging the American prices. A movement figure needs a complete two-sided price at both captures; single-sided markets show the price only.
- • Movement. The change in that fair probability between a side’s first and latest capture, in percentage points. A bout with one capture makes no movement claim.
- • What this is not. Not a pick, not a prediction, no read on why a price moved, and no result — this page does not say who won. Prices move for many reasons; it reports only that they did, and when.
Related: all archived slates · no-vig calculator · parlay vig calculator.
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