Movement archive · market facts
What the market did before August 12, 2026
Boxing and UFC — 10 bouts. Below is how each fight’s no-vig fair probability moved between its first and latest capture, with timestamps. These are market facts — what the prices did — not picks, not predictions, and no read on who won.
17 snapshots across 7 days (Aug 6 – Aug 12), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen. Latest capture Aug 12, 08:01 UTC. “Fair” = the book’s margin removed; a truer implied chance, not a forecast.
Biggest market moves
Joseph Kropschot’s fair probability moved from 26.3% (Aug 10) to 34.9% (Aug 11) — a +8.6 pts shift. Price +250 → +176 across 2 books.
Matt Adams’s fair probability moved from 16.9% (Aug 10) to 9.2% (Aug 12) — a -7.7 pts shift. Price +450 → +955.5 across 2 books.
Mridul Saikia’s fair probability moved from 11.6% (Aug 10) to 5.6% (Aug 12) — a -6.0 pts shift. Price +700 → +1650 across 2 books.
Alejandro Ortiz’s fair probability moved from 13.7% (Aug 6) to 8.7% (Aug 12) — a -5.0 pts shift. Price +560 → +1200 across 3 books.
Jemma Peart’s fair probability moved from 20.5% (Aug 10) to 15.6% (Aug 12) — a -4.9 pts shift. Price +366 → +560 across 3 books.
Stable on this slate
These bouts barely moved (under 1.0 fair-prob point). Stated as a finding, not dressed up as movement.
- Tom Pagliarulo vs Ananias Mulumba — 58.9% / 41.1% fair, -0.3 pts
- Teremoana Junior vs DeAndre Savage — 92.7% / 7.3% fair, 0.0 pts
- Jack Bowen vs Mielifeier Dalielibieke — 5.6% / 94.4% fair, 0.0 pts
Capture by capture — top 3 movers
Joseph Kropschot (Jon Kunneman vs Joseph Kropschot)
Aug 10
26.3%
+250 · 1bk
Aug 10
30.0%
+212.5 · 2bk
Aug 10
30.0%
+212.5 · 2bk
Aug 10
30.0%
+212.5 · 2bk
Aug 10
30.5%
+207.5 · 2bk
Aug 11
29.8%
+223 · 2bk
Aug 11
31.9%
+203 · 2bk
Aug 11
31.5%
+206 · 2bk
Aug 11
34.0%
+184 · 2bk
Aug 11
34.9%
+176 · 2bk
Matt Adams (Matt Adams vs Anthony Wint)
Aug 10
16.9%
+450 · 1bk
Aug 10
15.9%
+495 · 2bk
Aug 10
15.9%
+495 · 2bk
Aug 10
15.9%
+495 · 2bk
Aug 10
15.3%
+520 · 2bk
Aug 11
13.8%
+600.5 · 2bk
Aug 11
12.7%
+659.5 · 2bk
Aug 11
12.7%
+659.5 · 2bk
Aug 11
10.3%
+833 · 2bk
Aug 11
10.4%
+823.5 · 2bk
Aug 12
9.2%
+955.5 · 2bk
Mridul Saikia (Bilal Hasan vs Mridul Saikia)
Aug 10
11.6%
+700 · 1bk
Aug 10
10.7%
+790 · 2bk
Aug 10
10.7%
+790 · 2bk
Aug 10
10.7%
+790 · 2bk
Aug 10
10.7%
+790 · 2bk
Aug 11
8.3%
+1093 · 2bk
Aug 11
7.1%
+1258 · 2bk
Aug 11
7.1%
+1258 · 2bk
Aug 11
5.8%
+1600 · 2bk
Aug 11
5.6%
+1650 · 2bk
Aug 12
5.6%
+1650 · 2bk
Full slate — every bout
Consensus no-vig fair probability at first vs latest capture. Bouts with a single capture show the current price only — no movement claim.
| Bout | First | Latest | Fair Δ | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kunneman vs Joseph KropschotUFC · Aug 12 | 26.3%+250 · Aug 10 | 34.9%+176 · Aug 11 | +8.6 pts | 2 |
| Matt Adams vs Anthony WintUFC · Aug 12 | 16.9%+450 · Aug 10 | 9.2%+955.5 · Aug 12 | -7.7 pts | 2 |
| Bilal Hasan vs Mridul SaikiaUFC · Aug 12 | 11.6%+700 · Aug 10 | 5.6%+1650 · Aug 12 | -6.0 pts | 2 |
| Michael Zerafa vs Alejandro OrtizBoxing · Aug 12 | 13.7%+560 · Aug 6 | 8.7%+1200 · Aug 12 | -5.0 pts | 3 |
| Jasmine Parr vs Jemma PeartBoxing · Aug 12 | 20.5%+366 · Aug 10 | 15.6%+560 · Aug 12 | -4.9 pts | 3 |
| Abe Alsaghir vs Fabrizio EscarregaUFC · Aug 12 | 48.1%-110 · Aug 10 | 44.4%+117 · Aug 12 | -3.7 pts | 2 |
| Lekaysha Woodbridge vs Sothita SitthichaiBoxing · Aug 12 | 89.7%-2500 · Aug 10 | 92.4%-4000 · Aug 12 | +2.7 pts | 3 |
| Tom Pagliarulo vs Ananias MulumbaUFC · Aug 12 | 59.2%-170 · Aug 8 | 58.9%-156.5 · Aug 11 | -0.3 pts | 2 |
| Teremoana Junior vs DeAndre SavageBoxing · Aug 12 | 92.7%-3300 · Aug 6 | 92.7%-5000 · Aug 12 | 0.0 pts | 1 |
| Jack Bowen vs Mielifeier DalielibiekeBoxing · Aug 12 | 5.6%+1800 · Aug 10 | 5.6%+1800 · Aug 12 | 0.0 pts | 3 |
Showing the side that moved most per bout. 7 bout(s) moved ≥ 1.0 pt · 3 stable · 0 single-capture.
Methodology
- • Source. An archive of combat-sport prices (UFC + boxing) captured from multiple books over time. 17 snapshots across 7 days (Aug 6 – Aug 12), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen.
- • Fair probability. Each book’s two-sided price has its margin removed (no-vig), then averaged across books in probability space — never by averaging the American prices. A movement figure needs a complete two-sided price at both captures; single-sided markets show the price only.
- • Movement. The change in that fair probability between a side’s first and latest capture, in percentage points. A bout with one capture makes no movement claim.
- • What this is not. Not a pick, not a prediction, no read on why a price moved, and no result — this page does not say who won. Prices move for many reasons; it reports only that they did, and when.
Related: all archived slates · no-vig calculator · parlay vig calculator.
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