Movement archive · market facts
What the market did before August 15, 2026
Boxing and UFC — 15 bouts. Below is how each fight’s no-vig fair probability moved between its first and latest capture, with timestamps. These are market facts — what the prices did — not picks, not predictions, and no read on who won.
16 snapshots across 4 days (Aug 12 – Aug 15), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen. Latest capture Aug 15, 18:01 UTC. “Fair” = the book’s margin removed; a truer implied chance, not a forecast.
Biggest market moves
Donte Johnson’s fair probability moved from 68.7% (Aug 13) to 72.6% (Aug 15) — a +3.9 pts shift. Price -250 → -310 across 7 books.
Rolan Pruden’s fair probability moved from 20.6% (Aug 13) to 18.2% (Aug 14) — a -2.4 pts shift. Price +350 → +425 across 1 book.
Rasul Magomedov’s fair probability moved from 37.5% (Aug 13) to 39.6% (Aug 15) — a +2.1 pts shift. Price +150 → +145 across 1 book.
Ramiz Brahimaj’s fair probability moved from 55.4% (Aug 13) to 57.2% (Aug 15) — a +1.9 pts shift. Price -136 → -148 across 7 books.
Myktybek Orolbai’s fair probability moved from 86.9% (Aug 13) to 88.3% (Aug 15) — a +1.4 pts shift. Price -1000 → -1200 across 7 books.
Stable on this slate
These bouts barely moved (under 1.0 fair-prob point). Stated as a finding, not dressed up as movement.
- Danielle Perkins vs Olivia Curry — 84.1% / 15.9% fair, +0.8 pts
- Atif Oberlton vs Roamer Alexis Angulo — 8.4% / 91.6% fair, +0.7 pts
- Rafael Tobias vs Lucas Fernando — 29.0% / 71.0% fair, +0.4 pts
- Chidi Njokuani vs Joel Alvarez — 72.9% / 27.1% fair, +0.2 pts
- Charles Johnson vs Eduardo Chapolin — 46.6% / 53.4% fair, 0.0 pts
Capture by capture — top 3 movers
Donte Johnson (Donte Johnson vs Eric McConico)
Aug 13
68.7%
-250 · 7bk
Aug 14
70.7%
-280 · 6bk
Aug 14
70.8%
-280 · 7bk
Aug 14
70.8%
-280 · 7bk
Aug 14
70.8%
-280 · 7bk
Aug 14
71.9%
-300 · 7bk
Aug 15
72.0%
-300 · 7bk
Aug 15
72.2%
-305 · 7bk
Aug 15
72.2%
-305 · 7bk
Aug 15
72.3%
-305 · 7bk
Aug 15
72.6%
-310 · 7bk
Rolan Pruden (Richie Lewis vs Rolan Pruden)
Aug 13
20.6%
+350 · 1bk
Aug 13
20.6%
+350 · 1bk
Aug 13
20.6%
+350 · 1bk
Aug 13
20.6%
+350 · 1bk
Aug 13
20.6%
+350 · 1bk
Aug 14
13.7%
+600 · 1bk
Aug 14
13.7%
+600 · 1bk
Aug 14
13.7%
+600 · 1bk
Aug 14
18.2%
+425 · 1bk
Rasul Magomedov (Sidney Outlaw vs Rasul Magomedov)
Aug 13
37.5%
+150 · 1bk
Aug 13
39.3%
+140 · 1bk
Aug 13
38.4%
+150 · 1bk
Aug 14
39.8%
+140 · 1bk
Aug 14
39.8%
+140 · 1bk
Aug 14
39.8%
+140 · 1bk
Aug 14
41.4%
+130 · 1bk
Aug 15
39.6%
+145 · 1bk
Aug 15
37.7%
+157 · 1bk
Aug 15
39.6%
+145 · 1bk
Full slate — every bout
Consensus no-vig fair probability at first vs latest capture. Bouts with a single capture show the current price only — no movement claim.
| Bout | First | Latest | Fair Δ | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donte Johnson vs Eric McConicoUFC · Aug 15 | 68.7%-250 · Aug 13 | 72.6%-310 · Aug 15 | +3.9 pts | 7 |
| Richie Lewis vs Rolan PrudenUFC · Aug 15 | 20.6%+350 · Aug 13 | 18.2%+425 · Aug 14 | -2.4 pts | 1 |
| Sidney Outlaw vs Rasul MagomedovUFC · Aug 15 | 37.5%+150 · Aug 13 | 39.6%+145 · Aug 15 | +2.1 pts | 1 |
| Neil Magny vs Ramiz BrahimajUFC · Aug 15 | 55.4%-136 · Aug 13 | 57.2%-148 · Aug 15 | +1.9 pts | 7 |
| Jeremiah Wells vs Myktybek OrolbaiUFC · Aug 15 | 86.9%-1000 · Aug 13 | 88.3%-1200 · Aug 15 | +1.4 pts | 7 |
| Casey Dixon vs Michael NelsonBoxing · Aug 15 | 8.2%+1100 · Aug 13 | 9.5%+900 · Aug 15 | +1.3 pts | 2 |
| Vicente Luque vs Tresean GoreUFC · Aug 15 | 51.9%-120 · Aug 13 | 50.8%-115 · Aug 15 | -1.1 pts | 7 |
| Shannel Butler vs Marianela Soledad RamirezBoxing · Aug 15 | 92.6%-5000 · Aug 14 | 91.5%-2000 · Aug 15 | -1.0 pts | 5 |
| Danielle Perkins vs Olivia CurryBoxing · Aug 15 | 83.3%-700 · Aug 12 | 84.1%-800 · Aug 14 | +0.8 pts | 6 |
| Atif Oberlton vs Roamer Alexis AnguloBoxing · Aug 15 | 7.7%+1250 · Aug 13 | 8.4%+900 · Aug 15 | +0.7 pts | 6 |
| Rafael Tobias vs Lucas FernandoUFC · Aug 15 | 28.6%+240 · Aug 13 | 29.0%+230 · Aug 15 | +0.4 pts | 7 |
| Chidi Njokuani vs Joel AlvarezUFC · Aug 15 | 72.7%-312.5 · Aug 14 | 72.9%-320 · Aug 14 | +0.2 pts | 7 |
| Charles Johnson vs Eduardo ChapolinUFC · Aug 15 | 46.6%+104 · Aug 14 | 46.6%+104 · Aug 14 | 0.0 pts | 1 |
| Jaquan McElroy vs Alexander ThielBoxing · Aug 15 · 1 capture | 89.9%-2000 · Aug 15 | 89.9%-2000 · Aug 15 | — | 3 |
| Hakim Lopez vs Da'Velle SmithBoxing · Aug 15 · 1 capture | 31.3%+199 · Aug 15 | 31.3%+199 · Aug 15 | — | 6 |
Showing the side that moved most per bout. 8 bout(s) moved ≥ 1.0 pt · 5 stable · 2 single-capture.
Methodology
- • Source. An archive of combat-sport prices (UFC + boxing) captured from multiple books over time. 16 snapshots across 4 days (Aug 12 – Aug 15), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen.
- • Fair probability. Each book’s two-sided price has its margin removed (no-vig), then averaged across books in probability space — never by averaging the American prices. A movement figure needs a complete two-sided price at both captures; single-sided markets show the price only.
- • Movement. The change in that fair probability between a side’s first and latest capture, in percentage points. A bout with one capture makes no movement claim.
- • What this is not. Not a pick, not a prediction, no read on why a price moved, and no result — this page does not say who won. Prices move for many reasons; it reports only that they did, and when.
Related: all archived slates · no-vig calculator · parlay vig calculator.
For entertainment purposes only · 21+ · Only bet what you can afford to lose · 1-800-GAMBLER