Movement archive · market facts
What the market did before August 16, 2026
Boxing and UFC — 22 bouts. Below is how each fight’s no-vig fair probability moved between its first and latest capture, with timestamps. These are market facts — what the prices did — not picks, not predictions, and no read on who won.
38 snapshots across 28 days (Jul 20 – Aug 16), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen. Latest capture Aug 16, 00:00 UTC. “Fair” = the book’s margin removed; a truer implied chance, not a forecast.
Biggest market moves
Edson Barboza’s fair probability moved from 23.3% (Aug 5) to 15.3% (Aug 16) — a -8.0 pts shift. Price +310 → +530 across 7 books.
Lucas Fernando’s fair probability moved from 64.7% (Aug 5) to 71.4% (Aug 12) — a +6.7 pts shift. Price -205 → -300 across 7 books.
Joel Alvarez’s fair probability moved from 67.2% (Aug 5) to 73.7% (Aug 16) — a +6.5 pts shift. Price -235 → -340 across 7 books.
Troy Isley’s fair probability moved from 78.1% (Aug 10) to 83.9% (Aug 16) — a +5.7 pts shift. Price -492.5 → -760 across 6 books.
Myktybek Orolbai’s fair probability moved from 81.8% (Aug 5) to 85.9% (Aug 12) — a +4.1 pts shift. Price -600 → -900 across 7 books.
Stable on this slate
These bouts barely moved (under 1.0 fair-prob point). Stated as a finding, not dressed up as movement.
- Ashleyann Lozada vs Paulette Valenzuela Cuesta — 88.8% / 11.2% fair, +0.9 pts
- Jaquan McElroy vs Alexander Thiel — 10.5% / 89.5% fair, -0.7 pts
- Kaye Scott vs Claressa Shields — 92.6% / 7.4% fair, +0.6 pts
- Hakim Lopez vs Da'Velle Smith — 30.8% / 69.2% fair, +0.5 pts
- Islam Makhachev vs Ian Garry — 74.4% / 25.6% fair, +0.2 pts
- Donte Johnson vs Eric McConico — 67.4% / 32.6% fair, +0.2 pts
Capture by capture — top 3 movers
Edson Barboza (Edson Barboza vs Esteban Ribovics)
Aug 5
23.3%
+310 · 3bk
Aug 5
23.3%
+310 · 3bk
Aug 6
23.3%
+310 · 3bk
Aug 7
22.9%
+318 · 4bk
Aug 8
22.9%
+318 · 4bk
Aug 9
22.3%
+325 · 7bk
Aug 10
20.5%
+370 · 7bk
Aug 11
19.5%
+395 · 7bk
Aug 12
19.2%
+409 · 7bk
Aug 13
17.9%
+430 · 7bk
Aug 14
17.3%
+470 · 7bk
Aug 14
17.1%
+475 · 7bk
Aug 14
17.1%
+475 · 7bk
Aug 14
16.2%
+500 · 7bk
Aug 15
16.3%
+500 · 7bk
Aug 15
16.1%
+500 · 7bk
Aug 15
16.1%
+500 · 7bk
Aug 15
15.9%
+500 · 7bk
Aug 15
15.6%
+525 · 7bk
Aug 16
15.3%
+530 · 7bk
Lucas Fernando (Rafael Tobias vs Lucas Fernando)
Aug 5
64.7%
-205 · 3bk
Aug 5
64.7%
-205 · 3bk
Aug 6
66.1%
-230 · 3bk
Aug 7
66.4%
-230 · 4bk
Aug 8
67.2%
-234 · 4bk
Aug 9
69.4%
-267.5 · 6bk
Aug 10
71.3%
-300 · 7bk
Aug 11
71.3%
-290 · 7bk
Aug 12
71.4%
-300 · 7bk
Joel Alvarez (Chidi Njokuani vs Joel Alvarez)
Aug 5
67.2%
-235 · 3bk
Aug 5
67.2%
-235 · 3bk
Aug 6
67.8%
-240 · 2bk
Aug 7
68.9%
-259 · 4bk
Aug 8
69.0%
-259 · 4bk
Aug 9
68.9%
-260 · 7bk
Aug 10
68.3%
-240 · 7bk
Aug 11
69.0%
-260 · 7bk
Aug 12
70.2%
-278 · 7bk
Aug 13
72.2%
-310 · 7bk
Aug 14
73.0%
-320 · 7bk
Aug 15
72.7%
-310 · 7bk
Aug 15
72.7%
-310 · 7bk
Aug 15
72.7%
-310 · 7bk
Aug 15
72.7%
-310 · 7bk
Aug 15
72.8%
-320 · 7bk
Aug 16
73.7%
-340 · 7bk
Full slate — every bout
Consensus no-vig fair probability at first vs latest capture. Bouts with a single capture show the current price only — no movement claim.
| Bout | First | Latest | Fair Δ | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edson Barboza vs Esteban RibovicsUFC · Aug 16 | 23.3%+310 · Aug 5 | 15.3%+530 · Aug 16 | -8.0 pts | 7 |
| Rafael Tobias vs Lucas FernandoUFC · Aug 16 | 64.7%-205 · Aug 5 | 71.4%-300 · Aug 12 | +6.7 pts | 7 |
| Chidi Njokuani vs Joel AlvarezUFC · Aug 16 | 67.2%-235 · Aug 5 | 73.7%-340 · Aug 16 | +6.5 pts | 7 |
| Troy Isley vs Joseph HicksBoxing · Aug 16 | 78.1%-492.5 · Aug 10 | 83.9%-760 · Aug 16 | +5.7 pts | 6 |
| Jeremiah Wells vs Myktybek OrolbaiUFC · Aug 16 | 81.8%-600 · Aug 5 | 85.9%-900 · Aug 12 | +4.1 pts | 7 |
| Caroline Veyre vs Bernice FerreiraBoxing · Aug 16 | 26.6%+254 · Aug 12 | 22.9%+310 · Aug 16 | -3.7 pts | 3 |
| Neil Magny vs Ramiz BrahimajUFC · Aug 16 | 50.0%-110 · Aug 5 | 53.4%-125 · Aug 12 | +3.4 pts | 7 |
| Jalin Turner vs Kauê FernandesUFC · Aug 16 | 55.0%-132 · Aug 5 | 51.6%-117 · Aug 16 | -3.4 pts | 6 |
| Charles Johnson vs Jose OchoaUFC · Aug 16 | 25.4%+275 · Aug 5 | 22.1%+340 · Aug 12 | -3.3 pts | 7 |
| Ernesto Mercado vs Emmanuel TagoeBoxing · Aug 16 | 92.8%-7500 · Aug 11 | 89.6%-2000 · Aug 15 | -3.3 pts | 1 |
| Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Dustin StoltzfusUFC · Aug 16 | 18.9%+410 · Aug 5 | 15.6%+525 · Aug 16 | -3.2 pts | 6 |
| Vicente Luque vs Tresean GoreUFC · Aug 16 | 54.9%-130 · Aug 5 | 52.8%-122 · Aug 12 | -2.2 pts | 7 |
| Charles Johnson vs Eduardo ChapolinUFC · Aug 16 | 53.4%-128 · Aug 14 | 51.5%-116 · Aug 16 | -1.8 pts | 1 |
| Charles Johnson vs Eduardo HenriqueUFC · Aug 16 | 53.2%-125 · Aug 13 | 51.5%-116 · Aug 16 | -1.7 pts | 6 |
| Danielle Perkins vs Olivia CurryBoxing · Aug 16 | 16.1%+483 · Aug 15 | 14.5%+550 · Aug 15 | -1.6 pts | 1 |
| Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian RobertsonUFC · Aug 16 | 34.4%+172 · Jul 20 | 35.6%+170 · Aug 16 | +1.2 pts | 7 |
| Ashleyann Lozada vs Paulette Valenzuela CuestaBoxing · Aug 16 | 87.9%-1250 · Aug 13 | 88.8%-2000 · Aug 16 | +0.9 pts | 5 |
| Jaquan McElroy vs Alexander ThielBoxing · Aug 16 | 11.2%+738 · Aug 14 | 10.5%+825 · Aug 15 | -0.7 pts | 3 |
| Kaye Scott vs Claressa ShieldsBoxing · Aug 16 | 92.0%-2750 · Jul 20 | 92.6%-3250 · Aug 16 | +0.6 pts | 4 |
| Hakim Lopez vs Da'Velle SmithBoxing · Aug 16 | 30.3%+209 · Aug 13 | 30.8%+202.5 · Aug 15 | +0.5 pts | 6 |
| Islam Makhachev vs Ian GarryUFC · Aug 16 | 74.2%-350 · Jul 20 | 74.4%-350 · Aug 16 | +0.2 pts | 7 |
| Donte Johnson vs Eric McConicoUFC · Aug 16 | 67.2%-230 · Aug 5 | 67.4%-240 · Aug 12 | +0.2 pts | 7 |
Showing the side that moved most per bout. 16 bout(s) moved ≥ 1.0 pt · 6 stable · 0 single-capture.
Methodology
- • Source. An archive of combat-sport prices (UFC + boxing) captured from multiple books over time. 38 snapshots across 28 days (Jul 20 – Aug 16), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen.
- • Fair probability. Each book’s two-sided price has its margin removed (no-vig), then averaged across books in probability space — never by averaging the American prices. A movement figure needs a complete two-sided price at both captures; single-sided markets show the price only.
- • Movement. The change in that fair probability between a side’s first and latest capture, in percentage points. A bout with one capture makes no movement claim.
- • What this is not. Not a pick, not a prediction, no read on why a price moved, and no result — this page does not say who won. Prices move for many reasons; it reports only that they did, and when.
Related: all archived slates · no-vig calculator · parlay vig calculator.
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