Movement archive · market facts
What the market did before August 19, 2026
UFC — 5 bouts. Below is how each fight’s no-vig fair probability moved between its first and latest capture, with timestamps. These are market facts — what the prices did — not picks, not predictions, and no read on who won.
13 snapshots across 5 days (Aug 15 – Aug 19), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen. Latest capture Aug 19, 00:00 UTC. “Fair” = the book’s margin removed; a truer implied chance, not a forecast.
Biggest market moves
Logan Paxton’s fair probability moved from 31.3% (Aug 16) to 26.8% (Aug 19) — a -4.6 pts shift. Price +207 → +260 across 2 books.
Trent Miller’s fair probability moved from 22.4% (Aug 18) to 17.8% (Aug 19) — a -4.6 pts shift. Price +330 → +450 across 3 books.
Stable on this slate
These bouts barely moved (under 1.0 fair-prob point). Stated as a finding, not dressed up as movement.
- Namo Fazil vs Kaik Brito — 61.6% / 38.4% fair, +0.1 pts
Capture by capture — top 3 movers
Logan Paxton (Logan Paxton vs Cristian Pérez)
Aug 16
31.3%
+207 · 1bk
Aug 17
33.3%
+189 · 1bk
Aug 17
32.9%
+191.5 · 2bk
Aug 17
32.9%
+191.5 · 2bk
Aug 17
32.9%
+191.5 · 2bk
Aug 17
32.9%
+191.5 · 2bk
Aug 18
32.1%
+198.5 · 2bk
Aug 18
32.7%
+193 · 2bk
Aug 18
32.7%
+193 · 2bk
Aug 18
33.5%
+187 · 2bk
Aug 18
33.9%
+185 · 2bk
Aug 19
26.8%
+260 · 2bk
Trent Miller (Douglas Rodrigues vs Trent Miller)
Aug 18
22.4%
+330 · 2bk
Aug 19
17.8%
+450 · 3bk
Full slate — every bout
Consensus no-vig fair probability at first vs latest capture. Bouts with a single capture show the current price only — no movement claim.
| Bout | First | Latest | Fair Δ | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Paxton vs Cristian PérezUFC · Aug 19 | 31.3%+207 · Aug 16 | 26.8%+260 · Aug 19 | -4.6 pts | 2 |
| Douglas Rodrigues vs Trent MillerUFC · Aug 19 | 22.4%+330 · Aug 18 | 17.8%+450 · Aug 19 | -4.6 pts | 3 |
| Namo Fazil vs Kaik BritoUFC · Aug 19 | 61.5%-177 · Aug 18 | 61.6%-178 · Aug 19 | +0.1 pts | 3 |
| Alik Lorenz vs Mahamed AlyUFC · Aug 19 · 1 capture | 74.7%-350 · Aug 15 | 74.7%-350 · Aug 15 | — | 1 |
| Roman Puga vs Taner TrembleyUFC · Aug 19 · 1 capture | 53.2%-125 · Aug 15 | 53.2%-125 · Aug 15 | — | 1 |
Showing the side that moved most per bout. 2 bout(s) moved ≥ 1.0 pt · 1 stable · 2 single-capture.
Methodology
- • Source. An archive of combat-sport prices (UFC + boxing) captured from multiple books over time. 13 snapshots across 5 days (Aug 15 – Aug 19), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen.
- • Fair probability. Each book’s two-sided price has its margin removed (no-vig), then averaged across books in probability space — never by averaging the American prices. A movement figure needs a complete two-sided price at both captures; single-sided markets show the price only.
- • Movement. The change in that fair probability between a side’s first and latest capture, in percentage points. A bout with one capture makes no movement claim.
- • What this is not. Not a pick, not a prediction, no read on why a price moved, and no result — this page does not say who won. Prices move for many reasons; it reports only that they did, and when.
Related: all archived slates · no-vig calculator · parlay vig calculator.
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