Movement archive · market facts
What the market did before August 21, 2026
Boxing and UFC — 7 bouts. Below is how each fight’s no-vig fair probability moved between its first and latest capture, with timestamps. These are market facts — what the prices did — not picks, not predictions, and no read on who won.
6 snapshots across 2 days (Aug 20 – Aug 21), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen. Latest capture Aug 21, 18:03 UTC. “Fair” = the book’s margin removed; a truer implied chance, not a forecast.
Biggest market moves
Orlando Sanders’s fair probability moved from 16.9% (Aug 20) to 13.5% (Aug 21) — a -3.4 pts shift. Price +450 → +613 across 1 book.
Daniel Frunza’s fair probability moved from 67.1% (Aug 20) to 70.5% (Aug 21) — a +3.4 pts shift. Price -270 → -275 across 1 book.
Irakli Kuchukhidze’s fair probability moved from 23.1% (Aug 20) to 19.9% (Aug 21) — a -3.2 pts shift. Price +300 → +383 across 1 book.
Stable on this slate
These bouts barely moved (under 1.0 fair-prob point). Stated as a finding, not dressed up as movement.
- Nelvie Tiafack vs Salvador Zavala — 93.1% / 6.9% fair, -0.3 pts
- Sevak Khachatryan vs Aiden Ingram — 60.4% / 39.6% fair, 0.0 pts
- Nika Sabanashvili vs Artur Gadzhikhanov — 21.4% / 78.6% fair, 0.0 pts
Capture by capture — top 3 movers
Orlando Sanders (Joaquin Garcia vs Orlando Sanders)
Aug 20
16.9%
+450 · 1bk
Aug 21
13.5%
+613 · 1bk
Aug 21
13.5%
+613 · 1bk
Aug 21
13.5%
+613 · 1bk
Aug 21
13.5%
+613 · 1bk
Daniel Frunza (Daniel Frunza vs Jonathan Hanes)
Aug 20
67.1%
-270 · 1bk
Aug 21
69.5%
-260 · 1bk
Aug 21
69.5%
-260 · 1bk
Aug 21
70.5%
-275 · 1bk
Aug 21
70.5%
-275 · 1bk
Irakli Kuchukhidze (Irakli Kuchukhidze vs Austin Clayton)
Aug 20
23.1%
+300 · 1bk
Aug 21
19.9%
+383 · 1bk
Aug 21
19.9%
+383 · 1bk
Aug 21
19.9%
+383 · 1bk
Aug 21
19.9%
+383 · 1bk
Full slate — every bout
Consensus no-vig fair probability at first vs latest capture. Bouts with a single capture show the current price only — no movement claim.
| Bout | First | Latest | Fair Δ | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Garcia vs Orlando SandersUFC · Aug 21 | 16.9%+450 · Aug 20 | 13.5%+613 · Aug 21 | -3.4 pts | 1 |
| Daniel Frunza vs Jonathan HanesUFC · Aug 21 | 67.1%-270 · Aug 20 | 70.5%-275 · Aug 21 | +3.4 pts | 1 |
| Irakli Kuchukhidze vs Austin ClaytonUFC · Aug 21 | 23.1%+300 · Aug 20 | 19.9%+383 · Aug 21 | -3.2 pts | 1 |
| Nelvie Tiafack vs Salvador ZavalaBoxing · Aug 21 | 93.4%-5000 · Aug 20 | 93.1%-5000 · Aug 21 | -0.3 pts | 4 |
| Sevak Khachatryan vs Aiden IngramUFC · Aug 21 | 60.4%-165 · Aug 21 | 60.4%-165 · Aug 21 | 0.0 pts | 1 |
| Nika Sabanashvili vs Artur GadzhikhanovUFC · Aug 21 | 21.4%+350 · Aug 21 | 21.4%+350 · Aug 21 | 0.0 pts | 1 |
| Marcos Breno vs Bektur Zhenishbek UuluUFC · Aug 21 · 1 capture | 26.3%+250 · Aug 20 | 26.3%+250 · Aug 20 | — | 1 |
Showing the side that moved most per bout. 3 bout(s) moved ≥ 1.0 pt · 3 stable · 1 single-capture.
Methodology
- • Source. An archive of combat-sport prices (UFC + boxing) captured from multiple books over time. 6 snapshots across 2 days (Aug 20 – Aug 21), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen.
- • Fair probability. Each book’s two-sided price has its margin removed (no-vig), then averaged across books in probability space — never by averaging the American prices. A movement figure needs a complete two-sided price at both captures; single-sided markets show the price only.
- • Movement. The change in that fair probability between a side’s first and latest capture, in percentage points. A bout with one capture makes no movement claim.
- • What this is not. Not a pick, not a prediction, no read on why a price moved, and no result — this page does not say who won. Prices move for many reasons; it reports only that they did, and when.
Related: all archived slates · no-vig calculator · parlay vig calculator.
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