Movement archive · market facts
What the market did before August 22, 2026
Boxing and UFC — 39 bouts. Below is how each fight’s no-vig fair probability moved between its first and latest capture, with timestamps. These are market facts — what the prices did — not picks, not predictions, and no read on who won.
48 snapshots across 34 days (Jul 20 – Aug 22), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen. Latest capture Aug 22, 18:01 UTC. “Fair” = the book’s margin removed; a truer implied chance, not a forecast.
Biggest market moves
Dzhamal Mavliudov’s fair probability moved from 49.1% (Aug 19) to 35.9% (Aug 22) — a -13.1 pts shift. Price -115 → +170 across 1 book.
Chris Mecate’s fair probability moved from 69.2% (Aug 19) to 76.2% (Aug 22) — a +7.0 pts shift. Price -300 → -400 across 1 book.
Mayelli Flores Rosquero’s fair probability moved from 51.4% (Aug 18) to 56.6% (Aug 22) — a +5.2 pts shift. Price -130 → -148 across 3 books.
Emmanuel Buttigieg’s fair probability moved from 87.5% (Aug 18) to 92.3% (Aug 22) — a +4.8 pts shift. Price -1450 → -5000 across 4 books.
Irakli Kuchukhidze’s fair probability moved from 19.9% (Aug 21) to 15.5% (Aug 22) — a -4.4 pts shift. Price +383 → +520 across 1 book.
Stable on this slate
These bouts barely moved (under 1.0 fair-prob point). Stated as a finding, not dressed up as movement.
- Jahmal Harvey vs Hammet Keb del Valle — 8.4% / 91.6% fair, +0.9 pts
- Jackson McVey vs Wes Schultz — 38.6% / 61.4% fair, +0.8 pts
- Márcio Barbosa vs Ryan Kuse — 85.7% / 14.3% fair, -0.8 pts
- Joseph Brown vs Alton Wiggins — 6.4% / 93.6% fair, -0.8 pts
- Pat McCormack vs Brian Maximiliano Rios — 91.4% / 8.6% fair, -0.8 pts
- Connor Mitchell vs Caine Singh — 93.9% / 6.1% fair, -0.6 pts
- Harley Burrows vs Carlos Miguel Ronner — 93.9% / 6.1% fair, -0.6 pts
- Louie Ward vs Jon Martinez — 6.1% / 93.9% fair, +0.6 pts
- Marquel Mederos vs Mason Jones — 30.0% / 70.0% fair, -0.5 pts
- Rolando Romero vs Teofimo Lopéz — 32.6% / 67.4% fair, +0.4 pts
- Nelvie Tiafack vs Salvador Zavala — 93.6% / 6.4% fair, +0.4 pts
- Marco Romero vs Kahlil Mitchell — 93.2% / 6.8% fair, +0.2 pts
- Aldo Blancas vs Ricky Mamone — 6.8% / 93.2% fair, +0.2 pts
- Anthony Wint vs Terrance Chatman — 87.3% / 12.7% fair, 0.0 pts
- Daniel Frunza vs Jonathan Hanes — 30.2% / 69.8% fair, 0.0 pts
Capture by capture — top 3 movers
Dzhamal Mavliudov (Benny Orozco vs Dzhamal Mavliudov)
Aug 19
49.0%
-115 · 1bk
Aug 20
44.3%
+110 · 1bk
Aug 20
44.3%
+110 · 1bk
Aug 20
44.3%
+110 · 1bk
Aug 20
44.3%
+110 · 1bk
Aug 20
41.6%
+125 · 1bk
Aug 21
37.1%
+161 · 1bk
Aug 21
34.9%
+177 · 1bk
Aug 21
33.3%
+189 · 1bk
Aug 21
34.5%
+180 · 1bk
Aug 21
35.4%
+174 · 1bk
Aug 22
35.9%
+170 · 1bk
Chris Mecate (Chris Mecate vs Manuel Exposito)
Aug 19
69.2%
-300 · 1bk
Aug 20
69.2%
-300 · 1bk
Aug 20
69.2%
-300 · 1bk
Aug 20
69.2%
-300 · 1bk
Aug 20
69.2%
-300 · 1bk
Aug 20
69.2%
-300 · 1bk
Aug 21
72.1%
-300 · 1bk
Aug 21
72.1%
-300 · 1bk
Aug 21
73.5%
-325 · 1bk
Aug 21
73.5%
-325 · 1bk
Aug 21
73.5%
-325 · 1bk
Aug 22
76.2%
-400 · 1bk
Mayelli Flores Rosquero (Mayelli Flores Rosquero vs Melissa Mortensen)
Aug 18
51.4%
-130 · 3bk
Aug 19
54.5%
-140 · 3bk
Aug 20
55.1%
-140 · 3bk
Aug 20
55.1%
-140 · 3bk
Aug 20
55.1%
-140 · 3bk
Aug 20
55.1%
-140 · 3bk
Aug 21
57.1%
-160 · 3bk
Aug 21
55.1%
-140 · 3bk
Aug 21
55.1%
-140 · 3bk
Aug 21
55.1%
-140 · 3bk
Aug 21
55.1%
-140 · 3bk
Aug 22
56.6%
-148 · 3bk
Full slate — every bout
Consensus no-vig fair probability at first vs latest capture. Bouts with a single capture show the current price only — no movement claim.
| Bout | First | Latest | Fair Δ | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benny Orozco vs Dzhamal MavliudovUFC · Aug 22 | 49.1%-115 · Aug 19 | 35.9%+170 · Aug 22 | -13.1 pts | 1 |
| Chris Mecate vs Manuel ExpositoUFC · Aug 22 | 69.2%-300 · Aug 19 | 76.2%-400 · Aug 22 | +7.0 pts | 1 |
| Mayelli Flores Rosquero vs Melissa MortensenBoxing · Aug 22 | 51.4%-130 · Aug 18 | 56.6%-148 · Aug 22 | +5.2 pts | 3 |
| Emmanuel Buttigieg vs P A GordonBoxing · Aug 22 | 87.5%-1450 · Aug 18 | 92.3%-5000 · Aug 22 | +4.8 pts | 4 |
| Irakli Kuchukhidze vs Austin ClaytonUFC · Aug 22 | 19.9%+383 · Aug 21 | 15.5%+520 · Aug 22 | -4.4 pts | 1 |
| Shanelle Dyer vs Elise ReedUFC · Aug 22 | 81.9%-600 · Aug 16 | 85.8%-877.5 · Aug 22 | +3.9 pts | 8 |
| George Liddard vs Dario MorelloBoxing · Aug 22 | 86.3%-1000 · Aug 11 | 90.0%-2000 · Aug 22 | +3.7 pts | 5 |
| Dakota Bush vs Morquez ForestUFC · Aug 22 | 60.9%-176.5 · Aug 21 | 64.6%-202.5 · Aug 22 | +3.7 pts | 2 |
| Tiah Mai Ayton vs Ellie HellewellBoxing · Aug 22 | 12.3%+660 · Aug 16 | 8.8%+900 · Aug 22 | -3.5 pts | 5 |
| Gauge Young vs Stan DorsainvilUFC · Aug 22 | 56.9%-150 · Aug 17 | 60.4%-167 · Aug 22 | +3.5 pts | 7 |
| Gadzhi Rabadanov vs Tracy ReederUFC · Aug 22 | 90.8%-3000 · Aug 21 | 93.9%-4250 · Aug 22 | +3.1 pts | 2 |
| Luke Trainer vs Roland DunlapUFC · Aug 22 | 24.5%+287.5 · Aug 21 | 21.7%+346.5 · Aug 22 | -2.9 pts | 2 |
| Joaquin Garcia vs Orlando SandersUFC · Aug 22 | 86.5%-900 · Aug 21 | 84.0%-700 · Aug 22 | -2.5 pts | 1 |
| Jimmy Sains vs Tom CowlingBoxing · Aug 22 | 75.5%-430 · Aug 16 | 77.7%-475 · Aug 22 | +2.2 pts | 5 |
| Shamil Gaziev vs Kennedy NzechukwuUFC · Aug 22 | 44.9%+110 · Aug 17 | 47.1%+105 · Aug 22 | +2.2 pts | 8 |
| Jamall Emmers vs Lerryan DouglasUFC · Aug 22 | 74.3%-350 · Aug 14 | 76.4%-395 · Aug 22 | +2.0 pts | 8 |
| Avious Griffin vs Jackson MarinezBoxing · Aug 22 | 11.8%+700 · Aug 16 | 10.0%+784 · Aug 22 | -1.8 pts | 5 |
| Amanda Serrano vs Lucrecia ManzurBoxing · Aug 22 | 8.7%+1000 · Jul 22 | 7.1%+1350 · Aug 22 | -1.7 pts | 4 |
| Mayeli Flores vs Melissa MortensenBoxing · Aug 22 | 45.6%+110 · Aug 19 | 43.9%+115 · Aug 22 | -1.7 pts | 3 |
| Nika Sabanashvili vs Artur GadzhikhanovUFC · Aug 22 | 78.6%-450 · Aug 21 | 80.1%-500 · Aug 22 | +1.5 pts | 1 |
| Nasrat Haqparast vs Chris PadillaUFC · Aug 22 | 49.6%-105.5 · Aug 14 | 48.2%-1 · Aug 22 | -1.4 pts | 8 |
| Jahmal Harvey vs Hammet Keb del ValleBoxing · Aug 22 | 7.5%+1200 · Aug 18 | 8.4%+1045 · Aug 22 | +0.9 pts | 2 |
| Jackson McVey vs Wes SchultzUFC · Aug 22 | 37.8%+154 · Aug 14 | 38.6%+149.5 · Aug 22 | +0.8 pts | 8 |
| Márcio Barbosa vs Ryan KuseUFC · Aug 22 | 86.5%-900 · Aug 15 | 85.7%-850 · Aug 22 | -0.8 pts | 7 |
| Joseph Brown vs Alton WigginsBoxing · Aug 22 | 7.1%+1200 · Aug 21 | 6.4%+1400 · Aug 22 | -0.8 pts | 5 |
| Pat McCormack vs Brian Maximiliano RiosBoxing · Aug 22 | 92.2%-3300 · Aug 21 | 91.4%-3000 · Aug 22 | -0.8 pts | 1 |
| Connor Mitchell vs Caine SinghBoxing · Aug 22 | 94.5%-9000 · Aug 20 | 93.9%-12500 · Aug 22 | -0.6 pts | 4 |
| Harley Burrows vs Carlos Miguel RonnerBoxing · Aug 22 | 94.5%-9000 · Aug 20 | 93.9%-12500 · Aug 22 | -0.6 pts | 4 |
| Louie Ward vs Jon MartinezBoxing · Aug 22 | 5.5%+1700 · Aug 20 | 6.1%+1350 · Aug 22 | +0.6 pts | 4 |
| Marquel Mederos vs Mason JonesUFC · Aug 22 | 30.4%+214.5 · Aug 14 | 30.0%+215 · Aug 16 | -0.5 pts | 7 |
| Rolando Romero vs Teofimo LopézBoxing · Aug 22 | 32.2%+200 · Jul 20 | 32.6%+190 · Jul 31 | +0.4 pts | 5 |
| Nelvie Tiafack vs Salvador ZavalaBoxing · Aug 22 | 93.2%-5000 · Aug 21 | 93.6%-5000 · Aug 22 | +0.4 pts | 1 |
| Marco Romero vs Kahlil MitchellBoxing · Aug 22 | 93.1%-5000 · Aug 21 | 93.2%-5000 · Aug 22 | +0.2 pts | 6 |
| Aldo Blancas vs Ricky MamoneBoxing · Aug 22 | 6.6%+1350 · Aug 21 | 6.8%+1300 · Aug 22 | +0.2 pts | 3 |
| Anthony Wint vs Terrance ChatmanUFC · Aug 22 | 87.4%-1000 · Aug 17 | 87.3%-1000 · Aug 18 | 0.0 pts | 8 |
| Daniel Frunza vs Jonathan HanesUFC · Aug 22 | 30.2%+219 · Aug 21 | 30.2%+219 · Aug 22 | 0.0 pts | 1 |
| Carlos Utria vs Israel MercadoBoxing · Aug 22 · 1 capture | 15.4%+495.5 · Aug 22 | 15.4%+495.5 · Aug 22 | — | 4 |
| Yoenli Hernandez vs Francisco Daniel VeronBoxing · Aug 22 · 1 capture | 11.0%+735 · Aug 22 | 11.0%+735 · Aug 22 | — | 6 |
| Victor Santillan vs Gary Antonio RussellBoxing · Aug 22 · 1 capture | 37.2%+164 · Aug 22 | 37.2%+164 · Aug 22 | — | 5 |
Showing the side that moved most per bout. 21 bout(s) moved ≥ 1.0 pt · 15 stable · 3 single-capture.
Methodology
- • Source. An archive of combat-sport prices (UFC + boxing) captured from multiple books over time. 48 snapshots across 34 days (Jul 20 – Aug 22), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen.
- • Fair probability. Each book’s two-sided price has its margin removed (no-vig), then averaged across books in probability space — never by averaging the American prices. A movement figure needs a complete two-sided price at both captures; single-sided markets show the price only.
- • Movement. The change in that fair probability between a side’s first and latest capture, in percentage points. A bout with one capture makes no movement claim.
- • What this is not. Not a pick, not a prediction, no read on why a price moved, and no result — this page does not say who won. Prices move for many reasons; it reports only that they did, and when.
Related: all archived slates · no-vig calculator · parlay vig calculator.
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