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Movement archive · market facts

What the market did before August 23, 2026

Boxing and UFC — 28 bouts. Below is how each fight’s no-vig fair probability moved between its first and latest capture, with timestamps. These are market facts — what the prices did — not picks, not predictions, and no read on who won.

32 snapshots across 23 days (Aug 1 – Aug 23), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen. Latest capture Aug 23, 00:01 UTC. “Fair” = the book’s margin removed; a truer implied chance, not a forecast.

Biggest market moves

UFCTyron Woodley vs Joaquin Buckley

Tyron Woodley’s fair probability moved from 75.4% (Aug 21) to 57.1% (Aug 22) — a -18.3 pts shift. Price -450 → -145 across 1 book.

BoxingVictor Santillan vs Gary Antonio Russell

Victor Santillan’s fair probability moved from 51.6% (Aug 6) to 36.6% (Aug 23) — a -15.0 pts shift. Price -26 → +163.5 across 6 books.

UFCMerab Dvalishvili vs Henry Cejudo

Merab Dvalishvili’s fair probability moved from 46.9% (Aug 21) to 56.2% (Aug 22) — a +9.3 pts shift. Price -104 → -140 across 1 book.

UFCNatan Schulte vs Makkasharip Zaynukov

Natan Schulte’s fair probability moved from 46.2% (Aug 20) to 38.8% (Aug 22) — a -7.3 pts shift. Price +100 → +148.5 across 2 books.

UFCAnthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues

Gregory Rodrigues’s fair probability moved from 41.4% (Aug 12) to 34.6% (Aug 23) — a -6.8 pts shift. Price +132.5 → +180 across 8 books.

Stable on this slate

These bouts barely moved (under 1.0 fair-prob point). Stated as a finding, not dressed up as movement.

  • Wes Schultz vs Jackson McVey — 38.6% / 61.4% fair, -0.9 pts
  • Nasrat Haqparast vs Chris Padilla — 48.6% / 51.4% fair, +0.8 pts
  • Yoenli Hernandez vs Francisco Daniel Veron — 12.2% / 87.8% fair, -0.7 pts
  • Gino van Steenis vs Robert Watley — 62.7% / 37.3% fair, +0.2 pts
  • Jamall Emmers vs Lerryan Douglas — 74.8% / 25.2% fair, 0.0 pts
  • Gadzhi Rabadanov vs Tracy Reeder — 6.1% / 93.9% fair, 0.0 pts
  • Luke Trainer vs Roland Dunlap — 20.7% / 79.3% fair, 0.0 pts

Capture by capture — top 3 movers

Tyron Woodley (Tyron Woodley vs Joaquin Buckley)

Aug 21

75.4%

-450 · 1bk

Aug 21

65.2%

-240 · 1bk

Aug 21

59.2%

-170 · 1bk

Aug 21

56.6%

-155 · 1bk

Aug 21

63.7%

-220 · 1bk

Aug 22

61.1%

-170 · 1bk

Aug 22

59.6%

-160 · 1bk

Aug 22

56.6%

-142 · 1bk

Aug 22

56.6%

-142 · 1bk

Aug 22

57.1%

-145 · 1bk

Victor Santillan (Victor Santillan vs Gary Antonio Russell)

Aug 6

51.6%

-26 · 2bk

Aug 7

51.6%

-26 · 2bk

Aug 8

50.2%

-18.5 · 2bk

Aug 9

50.2%

-18.5 · 2bk

Aug 10

47.0%

-0.5 · 2bk

Aug 11

46.5%

+2.5 · 2bk

Aug 12

46.5%

+2.5 · 2bk

Aug 13

45.2%

+10 · 2bk

Aug 14

45.2%

+10 · 2bk

Aug 15

45.2%

+10 · 2bk

Aug 16

41.8%

+130 · 3bk

Aug 17

41.8%

+130 · 3bk

Aug 18

41.9%

+124.5 · 6bk

Aug 19

41.4%

+127 · 6bk

Aug 20

39.9%

+135.5 · 6bk

Aug 21

39.1%

+141.5 · 6bk

Aug 21

39.1%

+141.5 · 6bk

Aug 21

39.1%

+141.5 · 6bk

Aug 21

39.1%

+143 · 5bk

Aug 22

39.1%

+143 · 5bk

Aug 22

39.1%

+143 · 5bk

Aug 22

39.1%

+143 · 5bk

Aug 22

38.0%

+153 · 5bk

Aug 23

36.6%

+163.5 · 6bk

Merab Dvalishvili (Merab Dvalishvili vs Henry Cejudo)

Aug 21

46.9%

-104 · 1bk

Aug 21

46.6%

-102 · 1bk

Aug 21

46.6%

-102 · 1bk

Aug 21

47.5%

-107 · 1bk

Aug 21

50.0%

-120 · 1bk

Aug 22

52.4%

-121 · 1bk

Aug 22

52.4%

-121 · 1bk

Aug 22

52.4%

-121 · 1bk

Aug 22

53.9%

-128 · 1bk

Aug 22

56.2%

-140 · 1bk

Full slate — every bout

Consensus no-vig fair probability at first vs latest capture. Bouts with a single capture show the current price only — no movement claim.

BoutFirstLatestFair ΔBooks
Tyron Woodley vs Joaquin BuckleyUFC · Aug 2375.4%-450 · Aug 2157.1%-145 · Aug 22-18.3 pts1
Victor Santillan vs Gary Antonio RussellBoxing · Aug 2351.6%-26 · Aug 636.6%+163.5 · Aug 23-15.0 pts6
Merab Dvalishvili vs Henry CejudoUFC · Aug 2346.9%-104 · Aug 2156.2%-140 · Aug 22+9.3 pts1
Natan Schulte vs Makkasharip ZaynukovUFC · Aug 2346.2%+100 · Aug 2038.8%+148.5 · Aug 22-7.3 pts2
Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory RodriguesUFC · Aug 2341.4%+132.5 · Aug 1234.6%+180 · Aug 23-6.8 pts8
Marquel Mederos vs Mason JonesUFC · Aug 2330.4%+217 · Aug 1224.3%+295.5 · Aug 23-6.1 pts8
Cris Cyborg vs Ketlen VieiraUFC · Aug 2374.7%-350 · Aug 2080.8%-525 · Aug 23+6.0 pts2
Marcirley Alves da Silva vs Nkosi NdebeleUFC · Aug 2334.8%+165 · Aug 2040.2%+140 · Aug 23+5.4 pts2
Magomed Magomedov vs Daniel MarcosUFC · Aug 2347.1%-105 · Aug 2041.9%+130 · Aug 23-5.2 pts2
Sergey Spivak vs Vitor PetrinoUFC · Aug 2338.8%+148 · Aug 1243.4%+122 · Aug 23+4.6 pts6
Carli Judice vs Jeisla ChavesUFC · Aug 2321.6%+344.5 · Aug 1217.5%+452.5 · Aug 23-4.1 pts8
Eoin Sheridan vs James VakeUFC · Aug 2320.6%+350 · Aug 2016.6%+480 · Aug 22-4.0 pts2
Taila Santos vs Sabrinna de SousaUFC · Aug 2362.5%-200 · Aug 2058.6%-154.5 · Aug 23-3.9 pts2
Movsar Ibragimov vs Javid BasharatUFC · Aug 2328.3%+225 · Aug 2031.8%+202.5 · Aug 22+3.4 pts2
Carlos Utria vs Israel MercadoBoxing · Aug 2385.4%-900 · Aug 682.1%-600 · Aug 23-3.3 pts4
Roman Dolidze vs Reinier de RidderUFC · Aug 2373.9%-330 · Aug 1276.8%-392.5 · Aug 23+2.9 pts8
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Shamil GazievUFC · Aug 2346.8%+105 · Aug 1244.6%+116.5 · Aug 16-2.1 pts8
Florim Zendeli vs Omran ChaabanUFC · Aug 2357.8%-155 · Aug 2056.0%-144 · Aug 21-1.7 pts2
Rolando Romero vs Teofimo LopézBoxing · Aug 2332.6%+190 · Aug 131.0%+200 · Aug 23-1.6 pts7
Anthony Wint vs Terrance ChatmanUFC · Aug 2312.6%+650 · Aug 1913.7%+606.5 · Aug 23+1.1 pts8
Wes Schultz vs Jackson McVeyUFC · Aug 2339.5%+143.5 · Aug 1238.6%+150 · Aug 13-0.9 pts3
Nasrat Haqparast vs Chris PadillaUFC · Aug 2347.8%+100 · Aug 1248.6%-3.5 · Aug 13+0.8 pts2
Yoenli Hernandez vs Francisco Daniel VeronBoxing · Aug 2312.9%+630 · Aug 612.2%+671.5 · Aug 22-0.7 pts6
Gino van Steenis vs Robert WatleyUFC · Aug 2362.5%-200 · Aug 2062.7%-185 · Aug 22+0.2 pts2
Jamall Emmers vs Lerryan DouglasUFC · Aug 2374.8%-350 · Aug 1274.8%-350 · Aug 130.0 pts2
Gadzhi Rabadanov vs Tracy ReederUFC · Aug 236.1%+1475 · Aug 226.1%+1475 · Aug 230.0 pts2
Luke Trainer vs Roland DunlapUFC · Aug 2320.7%+365 · Aug 2220.7%+365 · Aug 230.0 pts2
Shanelle Dyer vs Elise ReedUFC · Aug 23 · 1 capture18.5%+420 · Aug 1518.5%+420 · Aug 15—1

Showing the side that moved most per bout. 20 bout(s) moved ≥ 1.0 pt · 7 stable · 1 single-capture.

Methodology

  • • Source. An archive of combat-sport prices (UFC + boxing) captured from multiple books over time. 32 snapshots across 23 days (Aug 1 – Aug 23), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen.
  • • Fair probability. Each book’s two-sided price has its margin removed (no-vig), then averaged across books in probability space — never by averaging the American prices. A movement figure needs a complete two-sided price at both captures; single-sided markets show the price only.
  • • Movement. The change in that fair probability between a side’s first and latest capture, in percentage points. A bout with one capture makes no movement claim.
  • • What this is not. Not a pick, not a prediction, no read on why a price moved, and no result — this page does not say who won. Prices move for many reasons; it reports only that they did, and when.

Related: all archived slates · no-vig calculator · parlay vig calculator.

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