Movement archive · market facts
What the market did before August 25, 2026
UFC — 5 bouts. Below is how each fight’s no-vig fair probability moved between its first and latest capture, with timestamps. These are market facts — what the prices did — not picks, not predictions, and no read on who won.
10 snapshots across 2 days (Aug 24 – Aug 25), 5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen. Latest capture Aug 25, 18:03 UTC. “Fair” = the book’s margin removed; a truer implied chance, not a forecast.
Biggest market moves
Mario Piazzon’s fair probability moved from 34.2% (Aug 24) to 40.1% (Aug 25) — a +5.9 pts shift. Price +185 → +141 across 2 books.
Alexis Miranda’s fair probability moved from 15.5% (Aug 24) to 10.7% (Aug 25) — a -4.9 pts shift. Price +525 → +803 across 2 books.
Sean Jr. Clancy’s fair probability moved from 83.6% (Aug 24) to 86.9% (Aug 25) — a +3.3 pts shift. Price -700 → -950 across 2 books.
Alex Apodaca’s fair probability moved from 9.7% (Aug 24) to 6.6% (Aug 25) — a -3.1 pts shift. Price +850 → +1300 across 3 books.
Stable on this slate
These bouts barely moved (under 1.0 fair-prob point). Stated as a finding, not dressed up as movement.
- Nick Galanti vs Carlos Petruzzella — 32.0% / 68.0% fair, -0.4 pts
Capture by capture — top 3 movers
Mario Piazzon (Mario Piazzon vs Guilherme Uriel)
Aug 24
34.2%
+185 · 3bk
Aug 24
34.7%
+174 · 3bk
Aug 24
34.7%
+174 · 3bk
Aug 24
34.5%
+177 · 3bk
Aug 24
34.5%
+177 · 3bk
Aug 25
37.5%
+155 · 3bk
Aug 25
38.5%
+150 · 3bk
Aug 25
39.3%
+140 · 3bk
Aug 25
39.3%
+140 · 3bk
Aug 25
40.1%
+141 · 2bk
Alexis Miranda (Ronald Humphrey vs Alexis Miranda)
Aug 24
15.5%
+525 · 3bk
Aug 24
15.3%
+534 · 3bk
Aug 24
15.0%
+550 · 3bk
Aug 25
14.4%
+550 · 3bk
Aug 25
12.8%
+660 · 3bk
Aug 25
12.8%
+660 · 3bk
Aug 25
12.8%
+660 · 3bk
Aug 25
10.7%
+803 · 2bk
Sean Jr. Clancy (Sean Jr. Clancy vs Gary Balletto Jr.)
Aug 24
83.6%
-700 · 2bk
Aug 24
83.6%
-700 · 2bk
Aug 24
85.2%
-825 · 2bk
Aug 25
85.2%
-825 · 2bk
Aug 25
86.9%
-950 · 2bk
Aug 25
86.9%
-950 · 2bk
Aug 25
86.9%
-950 · 2bk
Full slate — every bout
Consensus no-vig fair probability at first vs latest capture. Bouts with a single capture show the current price only — no movement claim.
| Bout | First | Latest | Fair Δ | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Piazzon vs Guilherme UrielUFC · Aug 25 | 34.2%+185 · Aug 24 | 40.1%+141 · Aug 25 | +5.9 pts | 2 |
| Ronald Humphrey vs Alexis MirandaUFC · Aug 25 | 15.5%+525 · Aug 24 | 10.7%+803 · Aug 25 | -4.9 pts | 2 |
| Sean Jr. Clancy vs Gary Balletto Jr.UFC · Aug 25 | 83.6%-700 · Aug 24 | 86.9%-950 · Aug 25 | +3.3 pts | 2 |
| Bella Mir vs Alex ApodacaUFC · Aug 25 | 9.7%+850 · Aug 24 | 6.6%+1300 · Aug 25 | -3.1 pts | 3 |
| Nick Galanti vs Carlos PetruzzellaUFC · Aug 25 | 32.4%+194 · Aug 24 | 32.0%+200 · Aug 25 | -0.4 pts | 2 |
Showing the side that moved most per bout. 4 bout(s) moved ≥ 1.0 pt · 1 stable · 0 single-capture.
Methodology
- • Source. An archive of combat-sport prices (UFC + boxing) captured from multiple books over time. 10 snapshots across 2 days (Aug 24 – Aug 25), 5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen.
- • Fair probability. Each book’s two-sided price has its margin removed (no-vig), then averaged across books in probability space — never by averaging the American prices. A movement figure needs a complete two-sided price at both captures; single-sided markets show the price only.
- • Movement. The change in that fair probability between a side’s first and latest capture, in percentage points. A bout with one capture makes no movement claim.
- • What this is not. Not a pick, not a prediction, no read on why a price moved, and no result — this page does not say who won. Prices move for many reasons; it reports only that they did, and when.
Related: all archived slates · no-vig calculator · parlay vig calculator.
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