Movement archive · market facts
What the market did before August 28, 2026
UFC — 15 bouts. Below is how each fight’s no-vig fair probability moved between its first and latest capture, with timestamps. These are market facts — what the prices did — not picks, not predictions, and no read on who won.
11 snapshots across 3 days (Aug 26 – Aug 28), 2–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen. Latest capture Aug 28, 12:00 UTC. “Fair” = the book’s margin removed; a truer implied chance, not a forecast.
Biggest market moves
Hayisaer Maheshate’s fair probability moved from 66.7% (Aug 26) to 58.8% (Aug 28) — a -7.9 pts shift. Price -227.5 → -159 across 2 books.
Farida Abdueva’s fair probability moved from 70.0% (Aug 26) to 77.5% (Aug 28) — a +7.5 pts shift. Price -270 → -420 across 2 books.
Takaya Suzuki’s fair probability moved from 77.4% (Aug 26) to 84.0% (Aug 28) — a +6.6 pts shift. Price -425 → -717.5 across 2 books.
Ryo Tajima’s fair probability moved from 56.4% (Aug 26) to 50.0% (Aug 28) — a -6.4 pts shift. Price -142.5 → -110 across 2 books.
Dedrek Sanders’s fair probability moved from 56.7% (Aug 26) to 61.7% (Aug 27) — a +5.0 pts shift. Price -155 → -175 across 1 book.
Stable on this slate
These bouts barely moved (under 1.0 fair-prob point). Stated as a finding, not dressed up as movement.
- Alexander Schenk vs Francisco Hernandez — 57.1% / 42.9% fair, -0.9 pts
- Young Jae Song vs Dagiisuren Chagnaadorj — 58.0% / 42.0% fair, -0.6 pts
- Rabindra Dhant vs Kasib Murdoch — 63.7% / 36.3% fair, -0.4 pts
- Elvis Silva vs Akbarjon Islomboev — 11.3% / 88.7% fair, -0.2 pts
Capture by capture — top 3 movers
Hayisaer Maheshate (Darrius Flowers vs Hayisaer Maheshate)
Aug 26
66.7%
-227.5 · 2bk
Aug 26
66.7%
-227.5 · 2bk
Aug 27
64.5%
-202.5 · 2bk
Aug 27
62.3%
-182.5 · 2bk
Aug 27
65.4%
-212.5 · 2bk
Aug 27
64.2%
-200 · 2bk
Aug 27
64.6%
-205 · 2bk
Aug 28
64.2%
-200 · 2bk
Aug 28
61.9%
-179 · 2bk
Aug 28
61.3%
-174 · 2bk
Aug 28
58.8%
-159 · 2bk
Farida Abdueva (Farida Abdueva vs Bo Hyun Park)
Aug 26
70.0%
-270 · 2bk
Aug 27
69.4%
-262.5 · 2bk
Aug 27
72.0%
-300 · 2bk
Aug 27
72.0%
-300 · 2bk
Aug 27
72.0%
-300 · 2bk
Aug 27
72.0%
-300 · 2bk
Aug 28
75.1%
-362.5 · 2bk
Aug 28
77.7%
-427.5 · 2bk
Aug 28
77.5%
-420 · 2bk
Takaya Suzuki (Joseph Larcinese vs Takaya Suzuki)
Aug 26
77.4%
-425 · 2bk
Aug 27
77.4%
-425 · 2bk
Aug 27
81.1%
-550 · 2bk
Aug 27
81.1%
-550 · 2bk
Aug 27
81.1%
-550 · 2bk
Aug 27
82.0%
-600 · 2bk
Aug 28
82.5%
-625 · 2bk
Aug 28
84.8%
-775 · 2bk
Aug 28
84.0%
-717.5 · 2bk
Full slate — every bout
Consensus no-vig fair probability at first vs latest capture. Bouts with a single capture show the current price only — no movement claim.
| Bout | First | Latest | Fair Δ | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrius Flowers vs Hayisaer MaheshateUFC · Aug 28 | 66.7%-227.5 · Aug 26 | 58.8%-159 · Aug 28 | -7.9 pts | 2 |
| Farida Abdueva vs Bo Hyun ParkUFC · Aug 28 | 70.0%-270 · Aug 26 | 77.5%-420 · Aug 28 | +7.5 pts | 2 |
| Joseph Larcinese vs Takaya SuzukiUFC · Aug 28 | 77.4%-425 · Aug 26 | 84.0%-717.5 · Aug 28 | +6.6 pts | 2 |
| Chungreng Koren vs Ryo TajimaUFC · Aug 28 | 56.4%-142.5 · Aug 26 | 50.0%-110 · Aug 28 | -6.4 pts | 2 |
| Dedrek Sanders vs Luis GomezUFC · Aug 28 | 56.7%-155 · Aug 26 | 61.7%-175 · Aug 27 | +5.0 pts | 1 |
| Ahejiang Ailinuer vs George MangosUFC · Aug 28 | 79.2%-475 · Aug 26 | 84.3%-735 · Aug 28 | +5.0 pts | 2 |
| Machi Fukuda vs Bo MengUFC · Aug 28 | 35.7%+170 · Aug 26 | 32.3%+197.5 · Aug 28 | -3.4 pts | 2 |
| Takeru Uchida vs JiniushiyueUFC · Aug 28 | 66.5%-225 · Aug 26 | 69.1%-260 · Aug 27 | +2.6 pts | 1 |
| Andrew Stewart vs Shane SobnoskyUFC · Aug 28 | 80.1%-500 · Aug 27 | 82.4%-600 · Aug 28 | +2.3 pts | 1 |
| Finn Martin vs Mataeo GarnerUFC · Aug 28 | 18.2%+425 · Aug 27 | 15.9%+505 · Aug 28 | -2.3 pts | 1 |
| Yilizhati Maimaitijiang vs Tre'ston VinesUFC · Aug 28 | 61.3%-175 · Aug 26 | 60.0%-164 · Aug 28 | -1.3 pts | 2 |
| Alexander Schenk vs Francisco HernandezUFC · Aug 28 | 58.0%-150 · Aug 27 | 57.1%-145 · Aug 28 | -0.9 pts | 1 |
| Young Jae Song vs Dagiisuren ChagnaadorjUFC · Aug 28 | 58.6%-155 · Aug 26 | 58.0%-152.5 · Aug 28 | -0.6 pts | 2 |
| Rabindra Dhant vs Kasib MurdochUFC · Aug 28 | 64.1%-200 · Aug 26 | 63.7%-195 · Aug 28 | -0.4 pts | 2 |
| Elvis Silva vs Akbarjon IslomboevUFC · Aug 28 | 11.5%+725 · Aug 26 | 11.3%+754 · Aug 27 | -0.2 pts | 1 |
Showing the side that moved most per bout. 11 bout(s) moved ≥ 1.0 pt · 4 stable · 0 single-capture.
Methodology
- • Source. An archive of combat-sport prices (UFC + boxing) captured from multiple books over time. 11 snapshots across 3 days (Aug 26 – Aug 28), 2–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen.
- • Fair probability. Each book’s two-sided price has its margin removed (no-vig), then averaged across books in probability space — never by averaging the American prices. A movement figure needs a complete two-sided price at both captures; single-sided markets show the price only.
- • Movement. The change in that fair probability between a side’s first and latest capture, in percentage points. A bout with one capture makes no movement claim.
- • What this is not. Not a pick, not a prediction, no read on why a price moved, and no result — this page does not say who won. Prices move for many reasons; it reports only that they did, and when.
Related: all archived slates · no-vig calculator · parlay vig calculator.
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