Movement archive · market facts
What the market did before August 29, 2026
Boxing and UFC — 49 bouts. Below is how each fight’s no-vig fair probability moved between its first and latest capture, with timestamps. These are market facts — what the prices did — not picks, not predictions, and no read on who won.
54 snapshots across 41 days (Jul 20 – Aug 29), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen. Latest capture Aug 29, 18:03 UTC. “Fair” = the book’s margin removed; a truer implied chance, not a forecast.
Biggest market moves
Meng Ding’s fair probability moved from 49.6% (Aug 21) to 56.8% (Aug 29) — a +7.3 pts shift. Price -108 → -145 across 7 books.
Peter Barrett’s fair probability moved from 71.7% (Aug 27) to 78.0% (Aug 29) — a +6.4 pts shift. Price -350 → -475 across 2 books.
Dedrek Sanders’s fair probability moved from 61.7% (Aug 28) to 55.3% (Aug 29) — a -6.4 pts shift. Price -175 → -135 across 1 book.
Julia Polastri’s fair probability moved from 63.5% (Aug 21) to 57.7% (Aug 29) — a -5.7 pts shift. Price -190 → -166 across 2 books.
Umar Nurmagomedov’s fair probability moved from 77.3% (Jul 20) to 82.6% (Aug 29) — a +5.3 pts shift. Price -400 → -625 across 8 books.
Stable on this slate
These bouts barely moved (under 1.0 fair-prob point). Stated as a finding, not dressed up as movement.
- Alex Perez vs Su Mudaerji — 34.9% / 65.1% fair, -0.9 pts
- Dylan Cheema vs Scott Melvin — 78.2% / 21.8% fair, +0.8 pts
- Corey Marksman vs Christian Barreto Gonzalez — 19.1% / 80.9% fair, -0.7 pts
- Guido Vianello vs Moses Jolly — 89.2% / 10.8% fair, +0.7 pts
- Nelson Hysa vs Thomas Narmo — 14.1% / 85.9% fair, +0.5 pts
- Ramon Cardenas vs Leonardo Carrillo — 17.6% / 82.4% fair, -0.4 pts
- Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes — 42.7% / 57.3% fair, +0.2 pts
- Shannon Courtenay vs Ebonie Cotton — 23.1% / 76.9% fair, +0.2 pts
- Jack Jenkins vs Sean Woodson — 43.1% / 56.9% fair, 0.0 pts
- Carlos De Leon vs Maxwel Montes — 10.0% / 90.0% fair, 0.0 pts
- Zayn Ahmed vs Liam Fitzmaurice — 95.4% / 4.6% fair, 0.0 pts
- Jorge Mata Cuellar vs Ronaldo Ruelas — 19.9% / 80.1% fair, 0.0 pts
- Hassan Ishaq vs Enzo Bahiano Munoz — 4.6% / 95.4% fair, 0.0 pts
- Luis Guzman Torres vs Jordan White — 72.1% / 27.9% fair, 0.0 pts
Capture by capture — top 3 movers
Meng Ding (Cameron Nelson vs Meng Ding)
Aug 21
49.6%
-108 · 1bk
Aug 22
48.4%
-105 · 3bk
Aug 23
51.1%
-120 · 3bk
Aug 24
55.9%
-140 · 7bk
Aug 25
56.6%
-143 · 7bk
Aug 26
57.4%
-152.5 · 6bk
Aug 27
57.3%
-150 · 6bk
Aug 27
56.5%
-144 · 6bk
Aug 27
56.1%
-140 · 6bk
Aug 28
56.6%
-143.5 · 6bk
Aug 28
56.7%
-143.5 · 6bk
Aug 28
56.7%
-143.5 · 6bk
Aug 28
56.7%
-143.5 · 6bk
Aug 28
57.6%
-148 · 7bk
Aug 29
56.7%
-142 · 7bk
Aug 29
56.8%
-145 · 7bk
Peter Barrett (Peter Barrett vs Elijah Harris)
Aug 27
71.7%
-350 · 1bk
Aug 28
74.7%
-350 · 1bk
Aug 28
78.6%
-450 · 1bk
Aug 28
78.6%
-450 · 1bk
Aug 28
78.6%
-450 · 1bk
Aug 28
78.6%
-450 · 1bk
Aug 29
78.6%
-450 · 1bk
Aug 29
78.6%
-450 · 1bk
Aug 29
78.6%
-450 · 1bk
Aug 29
76.9%
-400 · 1bk
Aug 29
78.0%
-475 · 2bk
Dedrek Sanders (Dedrek Sanders vs Luis Gomez)
Aug 28
61.7%
-175 · 1bk
Aug 28
61.7%
-175 · 1bk
Aug 28
61.7%
-175 · 1bk
Aug 28
61.7%
-175 · 1bk
Aug 28
58.8%
-155 · 1bk
Aug 29
55.3%
-135 · 1bk
Full slate — every bout
Consensus no-vig fair probability at first vs latest capture. Bouts with a single capture show the current price only — no movement claim.
| Bout | First | Latest | Fair Δ | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Nelson vs Meng DingUFC · Aug 29 | 49.6%-108 · Aug 21 | 56.8%-145 · Aug 29 | +7.3 pts | 7 |
| Peter Barrett vs Elijah HarrisUFC · Aug 29 | 71.7%-350 · Aug 27 | 78.0%-475 · Aug 29 | +6.4 pts | 2 |
| Dedrek Sanders vs Luis GomezUFC · Aug 29 | 61.7%-175 · Aug 28 | 55.3%-135 · Aug 29 | -6.4 pts | 1 |
| Jingnan Xiong vs Julia PolastriUFC · Aug 29 | 63.5%-190 · Aug 21 | 57.7%-166 · Aug 29 | -5.7 pts | 2 |
| Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song YadongUFC · Aug 29 | 77.3%-400 · Jul 20 | 82.6%-625 · Aug 29 | +5.3 pts | 8 |
| Nilson Rojas vs Bilal HasanUFC · Aug 29 | 80.2%-500 · Aug 21 | 85.2%-800 · Aug 29 | +5.0 pts | 8 |
| Luis Torres Valenzuela vs Jordan WhiteBoxing · Aug 29 | 26.8%+254 · Aug 24 | 31.7%+192.5 · Aug 29 | +4.9 pts | 6 |
| Alexander Schenk vs Francisco HernandezUFC · Aug 29 | 47.8%+100 · Aug 28 | 52.6%-122 · Aug 29 | +4.8 pts | 1 |
| Chantelle Cameron vs Mikaela MayerBoxing · Aug 29 | 31.2%+200 · Jul 20 | 35.4%+168.5 · Aug 29 | +4.1 pts | 6 |
| Carlos Castro vs Maxwel MontesBoxing · Aug 29 | 7.5%+1600 · Aug 27 | 11.2%+730 · Aug 29 | +3.7 pts | 1 |
| Rei Tsuruya vs Kevin BorjasUFC · Aug 29 | 81.8%-595 · Aug 21 | 85.2%-800 · Aug 29 | +3.5 pts | 8 |
| Weljon Mindoro vs Carlos OcampoBoxing · Aug 29 | 22.0%+320 · Aug 27 | 18.9%+366 · Aug 29 | -3.2 pts | 7 |
| Gemma Richardson vs Kirstie BavingtonBoxing · Aug 29 | 14.8%+560 · Aug 27 | 11.7%+800 · Aug 29 | -3.2 pts | 5 |
| Tony Curtis vs Imad NaseebBoxing · Aug 29 | 81.8%-650 · Aug 27 | 79.1%-600 · Aug 29 | -2.8 pts | 5 |
| Aloys Youmbi vs Mike PerezBoxing · Aug 29 | 22.3%+325 · Aug 16 | 25.0%+270 · Aug 26 | +2.7 pts | 6 |
| Levi Rodrigues vs Liu CeUFC · Aug 29 | 37.2%+160 · Aug 21 | 39.9%+142 · Aug 29 | +2.7 pts | 8 |
| Sam Noakes vs Denys BerinchykBoxing · Aug 29 | 16.9%+461 · Aug 16 | 14.4%+550 · Aug 29 | -2.5 pts | 7 |
| Constantin Ursu vs Ben VaughanBoxing · Aug 29 | 89.2%-1600 · Aug 16 | 91.7%-2800 · Aug 29 | +2.5 pts | 7 |
| Elvis Silva vs Akbarjon IslomboevUFC · Aug 29 | 11.3%+754 · Aug 28 | 8.7%+1000 · Aug 29 | -2.5 pts | 1 |
| Moses Itauma vs Filip HrgovićBoxing · Aug 29 | 16.8%+450 · Jul 20 | 14.5%+550 · Aug 29 | -2.3 pts | 7 |
| Namsrai Batbayar vs Andre LimaUFC · Aug 29 | 32.2%+200 · Aug 21 | 29.9%+220 · Aug 29 | -2.3 pts | 8 |
| Terri Harper vs Miranda ReyesBoxing · Aug 29 | 70.8%-297 · Jul 20 | 73.0%-333 · Aug 29 | +2.2 pts | 7 |
| Sam King vs Jack SwallowBoxing · Aug 29 | 93.6%-6000 · Aug 27 | 91.6%-2500 · Aug 29 | -2.1 pts | 5 |
| Hector Santiago vs Lawrence LuiUFC · Aug 29 | 72.4%-300 · Aug 21 | 74.5%-360 · Aug 29 | +2.0 pts | 8 |
| Caroline Dubois vs Amelia MooreBoxing · Aug 29 | 9.1%+900 · Jul 20 | 7.3%+1400 · Aug 29 | -1.8 pts | 7 |
| Long Xiao vs Francesco NuzziUFC · Aug 29 | 62.1%-180 · Aug 21 | 60.4%-168.5 · Aug 29 | -1.7 pts | 8 |
| Finn Martin vs Mataeo GarnerUFC · Aug 29 | 14.3%+571 · Aug 28 | 12.6%+661 · Aug 29 | -1.7 pts | 1 |
| Andrew Stewart vs Shane SobnoskyUFC · Aug 29 | 17.6%+446 · Aug 28 | 16.0%+500 · Aug 29 | -1.6 pts | 1 |
| Tysie Gallagher vs Brandi RobinsonBoxing · Aug 29 | 21.4%+340 · Aug 27 | 20.2%+350 · Aug 29 | -1.2 pts | 7 |
| Skye Nicolson vs Miyo YoshidaBoxing · Aug 29 | 87.5%-1400 · Aug 5 | 86.4%-1000 · Aug 5 | -1.1 pts | 1 |
| Aori Qileng vs Kai AsakuraUFC · Aug 29 | 22.9%+320 · Aug 21 | 21.8%+337.5 · Aug 29 | -1.1 pts | 8 |
| Alex Bray vs Antraveous IngramBoxing · Aug 29 | 62.0%-187.5 · Aug 27 | 60.9%-175.5 · Aug 29 | -1.1 pts | 6 |
| Frankie Wood vs Callum LeeBoxing · Aug 29 | 90.7%-2500 · Aug 27 | 89.7%-2050 · Aug 29 | -1.0 pts | 6 |
| Alex Perez vs Su MudaerjiUFC · Aug 29 | 35.9%+167.5 · Aug 21 | 34.9%+174 · Aug 29 | -0.9 pts | 7 |
| Dylan Cheema vs Scott MelvinBoxing · Aug 29 | 77.4%-452.5 · Aug 27 | 78.2%-500 · Aug 29 | +0.8 pts | 7 |
| Corey Marksman vs Christian Barreto GonzalezBoxing · Aug 29 | 19.8%+382.5 · Aug 27 | 19.1%+416 · Aug 29 | -0.7 pts | 6 |
| Guido Vianello vs Moses JollyBoxing · Aug 29 | 88.5%-1464.5 · Aug 27 | 89.2%-1400 · Aug 29 | +0.7 pts | 7 |
| Nelson Hysa vs Thomas NarmoBoxing · Aug 29 | 13.6%+600 · Aug 28 | 14.1%+559 · Aug 29 | +0.5 pts | 7 |
| Ramon Cardenas vs Leonardo CarrilloBoxing · Aug 29 | 18.0%+425 · Aug 27 | 17.6%+437.5 · Aug 29 | -0.4 pts | 2 |
| Yan Xiaonan vs Denise GomesUFC · Aug 29 | 42.4%+125.5 · Aug 21 | 42.7%+124 · Aug 29 | +0.2 pts | 7 |
| Shannon Courtenay vs Ebonie CottonBoxing · Aug 29 | 22.9%+302.5 · Aug 27 | 23.1%+320 · Aug 29 | +0.2 pts | 7 |
| Jack Jenkins vs Sean WoodsonUFC · Aug 29 | 43.2%+121.5 · Aug 21 | 43.1%+123 · Aug 29 | 0.0 pts | 8 |
| Carlos De Leon vs Maxwel MontesBoxing · Aug 29 | 10.0%+850 · Aug 27 | 10.0%+850 · Aug 28 | 0.0 pts | 1 |
| Zayn Ahmed vs Liam FitzmauriceBoxing · Aug 29 | 95.4%-10000 · Aug 27 | 95.4%-10000 · Aug 29 | 0.0 pts | 3 |
| Jorge Mata Cuellar vs Ronaldo RuelasBoxing · Aug 29 | 19.9%+370 · Aug 28 | 19.9%+370 · Aug 29 | 0.0 pts | 4 |
| Hassan Ishaq vs Enzo Bahiano MunozBoxing · Aug 29 | 4.6%+2000 · Aug 28 | 4.6%+2000 · Aug 29 | 0.0 pts | 3 |
| Luis Guzman Torres vs Jordan WhiteBoxing · Aug 29 | 72.1%-320 · Aug 28 | 72.1%-320 · Aug 29 | 0.0 pts | 1 |
| Brandon Mejia Mosqueda vs Edwin PalomaresBoxing · Aug 29 · 1 capture | 91.6%-2500 · Aug 29 | 91.6%-2500 · Aug 29 | — | 4 |
| Mike Perry vs Brandon JenkinsUFC · Aug 29 · 1 capture | 10.6%+800 · Aug 29 | 10.6%+800 · Aug 29 | — | 1 |
Showing the side that moved most per bout. 33 bout(s) moved ≥ 1.0 pt · 14 stable · 2 single-capture.
Methodology
- • Source. An archive of combat-sport prices (UFC + boxing) captured from multiple books over time. 54 snapshots across 41 days (Jul 20 – Aug 29), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen.
- • Fair probability. Each book’s two-sided price has its margin removed (no-vig), then averaged across books in probability space — never by averaging the American prices. A movement figure needs a complete two-sided price at both captures; single-sided markets show the price only.
- • Movement. The change in that fair probability between a side’s first and latest capture, in percentage points. A bout with one capture makes no movement claim.
- • What this is not. Not a pick, not a prediction, no read on why a price moved, and no result — this page does not say who won. Prices move for many reasons; it reports only that they did, and when.
Related: all archived slates · no-vig calculator · parlay vig calculator.
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