Movement archive · market facts
What the market did before August 30, 2026
Boxing — 8 bouts. Below is how each fight’s no-vig fair probability moved between its first and latest capture, with timestamps. These are market facts — what the prices did — not picks, not predictions, and no read on who won.
23 snapshots across 15 days (Aug 16 – Aug 30), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen. Latest capture Aug 30, 00:03 UTC. “Fair” = the book’s margin removed; a truer implied chance, not a forecast.
Biggest market moves
Brandon Mejia Mosqueda’s fair probability moved from 86.4% (Aug 26) to 91.6% (Aug 29) — a +5.1 pts shift. Price -1100 → -2500 across 4 books.
Juan Carillo’s fair probability moved from 23.5% (Aug 16) to 18.8% (Aug 30) — a -4.7 pts shift. Price +305 → +391 across 5 books.
Lester Martinez’s fair probability moved from 82.8% (Aug 16) to 85.0% (Aug 30) — a +2.2 pts shift. Price -715 → -900 across 7 books.
Mauricio Lara’s fair probability moved from 85.7% (Aug 26) to 87.5% (Aug 30) — a +1.8 pts shift. Price -1000 → -1105.5 across 4 books.
Bryant Jennings’s fair probability moved from 26.0% (Aug 25) to 24.7% (Aug 30) — a -1.3 pts shift. Price +260 → +269 across 5 books.
Stable on this slate
These bouts barely moved (under 1.0 fair-prob point). Stated as a finding, not dressed up as movement.
- Luis Guzman Torres vs Jordan White — 73.7% / 26.3% fair, 0.0 pts
Capture by capture — top 3 movers
Brandon Mejia Mosqueda (Brandon Mejia Mosqueda vs Edwin Palomares)
Aug 26
86.4%
-1100 · 2bk
Aug 27
91.4%
-3500 · 4bk
Aug 28
92.4%
-5000 · 4bk
Aug 28
92.4%
-5000 · 4bk
Aug 28
92.4%
-5000 · 4bk
Aug 28
92.8%
-4000 · 4bk
Aug 29
92.8%
-4000 · 4bk
Aug 29
91.6%
-2500 · 4bk
Aug 29
91.6%
-2500 · 4bk
Aug 29
91.6%
-2500 · 4bk
Juan Carillo (Najee Lopez vs Juan Carillo)
Aug 16
23.5%
+305 · 2bk
Aug 17
23.5%
+305 · 2bk
Aug 18
23.5%
+305 · 2bk
Aug 19
23.5%
+305 · 2bk
Aug 20
21.7%
+335 · 2bk
Aug 21
21.7%
+335 · 2bk
Aug 22
21.7%
+335 · 2bk
Aug 23
21.7%
+335 · 2bk
Aug 24
20.4%
+370.5 · 4bk
Aug 25
20.1%
+385.5 · 4bk
Aug 26
20.1%
+385.5 · 4bk
Aug 27
18.9%
+400 · 5bk
Aug 28
18.9%
+400 · 5bk
Aug 28
18.9%
+400 · 5bk
Aug 28
18.9%
+400 · 5bk
Aug 28
18.6%
+400 · 5bk
Aug 29
18.6%
+400 · 5bk
Aug 29
18.6%
+400 · 5bk
Aug 29
18.6%
+400 · 5bk
Aug 29
18.6%
+400 · 5bk
Aug 29
18.8%
+391 · 5bk
Aug 30
18.8%
+391 · 5bk
Lester Martinez (Lester Martinez vs Luka Plantić)
Aug 16
82.8%
-715 · 3bk
Aug 17
82.8%
-715 · 3bk
Aug 18
82.6%
-707.5 · 4bk
Aug 19
82.6%
-707.5 · 4bk
Aug 20
82.6%
-707.5 · 4bk
Aug 21
82.6%
-707.5 · 4bk
Aug 22
82.8%
-715 · 3bk
Aug 23
82.6%
-707.5 · 4bk
Aug 24
82.6%
-700 · 6bk
Aug 25
83.0%
-707.5 · 6bk
Aug 26
83.0%
-700 · 7bk
Aug 27
82.8%
-700 · 7bk
Aug 28
82.7%
-700 · 7bk
Aug 28
82.7%
-700 · 7bk
Aug 28
83.0%
-700 · 7bk
Aug 28
83.2%
-700 · 7bk
Aug 29
84.0%
-850 · 7bk
Aug 29
84.1%
-900 · 7bk
Aug 29
84.7%
-900 · 7bk
Aug 29
84.7%
-900 · 7bk
Aug 29
84.9%
-900 · 7bk
Aug 30
85.0%
-900 · 7bk
Full slate — every bout
Consensus no-vig fair probability at first vs latest capture. Bouts with a single capture show the current price only — no movement claim.
| Bout | First | Latest | Fair Δ | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Mejia Mosqueda vs Edwin PalomaresBoxing · Aug 30 | 86.4%-1100 · Aug 26 | 91.6%-2500 · Aug 29 | +5.1 pts | 4 |
| Najee Lopez vs Juan CarilloBoxing · Aug 30 | 23.5%+305 · Aug 16 | 18.8%+391 · Aug 30 | -4.7 pts | 5 |
| Lester Martinez vs Luka PlantićBoxing · Aug 30 | 82.8%-715 · Aug 16 | 85.0%-900 · Aug 30 | +2.2 pts | 7 |
| Mauricio Lara vs Carlos OrnelasBoxing · Aug 30 | 85.7%-1000 · Aug 26 | 87.5%-1105.5 · Aug 30 | +1.8 pts | 4 |
| Brandon Moore vs Bryant JenningsBoxing · Aug 30 | 26.0%+260 · Aug 25 | 24.7%+269 · Aug 30 | -1.3 pts | 5 |
| Luis Guzman Torres vs Jordan WhiteBoxing · Aug 30 | 73.7%-350 · Aug 25 | 73.7%-350 · Aug 28 | 0.0 pts | 1 |
| Jorge Mata Cuellar vs Ronaldo RuelasBoxing · Aug 30 · 1 capture | 78.5%-500 · Aug 29 | 78.5%-500 · Aug 29 | — | 4 |
| Ramon Cardenas vs Leonardo CarrilloBoxing · Aug 30 · 1 capture | 15.1%+500 · Aug 30 | 15.1%+500 · Aug 30 | — | 3 |
Showing the side that moved most per bout. 5 bout(s) moved ≥ 1.0 pt · 1 stable · 2 single-capture.
Methodology
- • Source. An archive of combat-sport prices (UFC + boxing) captured from multiple books over time. 23 snapshots across 15 days (Aug 16 – Aug 30), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen.
- • Fair probability. Each book’s two-sided price has its margin removed (no-vig), then averaged across books in probability space — never by averaging the American prices. A movement figure needs a complete two-sided price at both captures; single-sided markets show the price only.
- • Movement. The change in that fair probability between a side’s first and latest capture, in percentage points. A bout with one capture makes no movement claim.
- • What this is not. Not a pick, not a prediction, no read on why a price moved, and no result — this page does not say who won. Prices move for many reasons; it reports only that they did, and when.
Related: all archived slates · no-vig calculator · parlay vig calculator.
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