Movement archive · market facts
What the market did before September 2, 2026
Boxing and UFC — 9 bouts. Below is how each fight’s no-vig fair probability moved between its first and latest capture, with timestamps. These are market facts — what the prices did — not picks, not predictions, and no read on who won.
26 snapshots across 17 days (Aug 17 – Sep 2), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen. Latest capture Sep 2, 08:00 UTC. “Fair” = the book’s margin removed; a truer implied chance, not a forecast.
Biggest market moves
Daiya Kira’s fair probability moved from 66.1% (Aug 17) to 74.3% (Sep 2) — a +8.2 pts shift. Price -232.5 → -370 across 6 books.
Yoshi Sugiura’s fair probability moved from 70.7% (Sep 1) to 65.2% (Sep 2) — a -5.5 pts shift. Price -292.5 → -225 across 4 books.
Liam Mccracken’s fair probability moved from 57.1% (Sep 1) to 51.9% (Sep 2) — a -5.2 pts shift. Price -146.5 → -120 across 3 books.
Brandon Holmes’s fair probability moved from 57.1% (Aug 31) to 61.1% (Sep 2) — a +3.9 pts shift. Price -150 → -177 across 2 books.
Gabriel Lourenco’s fair probability moved from 38.7% (Aug 31) to 35.5% (Sep 1) — a -3.2 pts shift. Price +148.5 → +172 across 2 books.
Stable on this slate
These bouts barely moved (under 1.0 fair-prob point). Stated as a finding, not dressed up as movement.
- Adam Darby vs Patrick Rivera — 22.2% / 77.8% fair, -0.8 pts
- Yuga Fujiki vs Jufel Salina — 7.3% / 92.7% fair, 0.0 pts
Capture by capture — top 3 movers
Daiya Kira (Daiya Kira vs Carlos Canizales)
Aug 17
66.1%
-232.5 · 2bk
Aug 18
66.1%
-232.5 · 2bk
Aug 19
68.1%
-260 · 2bk
Aug 20
68.1%
-260 · 2bk
Aug 21
68.1%
-260 · 2bk
Aug 22
68.1%
-260 · 2bk
Aug 23
68.1%
-260 · 2bk
Aug 24
68.1%
-260 · 2bk
Aug 25
68.1%
-260 · 2bk
Aug 26
68.6%
-275 · 4bk
Aug 27
68.7%
-275 · 5bk
Aug 28
69.5%
-275 · 5bk
Aug 29
69.5%
-275 · 5bk
Aug 30
72.0%
-350 · 5bk
Aug 31
72.9%
-350 · 5bk
Aug 31
72.9%
-350 · 5bk
Aug 31
71.6%
-325 · 5bk
Aug 31
71.5%
-325 · 5bk
Sep 1
71.7%
-325 · 5bk
Sep 1
72.9%
-350 · 5bk
Sep 1
73.2%
-350 · 5bk
Sep 1
74.7%
-385 · 6bk
Sep 1
74.4%
-370 · 6bk
Sep 2
74.9%
-377.5 · 6bk
Sep 2
74.3%
-370 · 6bk
Yoshi Sugiura (Katsuki Mori vs Yoshi Sugiura)
Sep 1
70.7%
-292.5 · 4bk
Sep 1
70.7%
-292.5 · 4bk
Sep 1
70.7%
-292.5 · 4bk
Sep 1
68.2%
-255 · 4bk
Sep 2
65.4%
-210 · 4bk
Sep 2
65.2%
-225 · 4bk
Liam Mccracken (Silvestre Sanchez vs Liam Mccracken)
Sep 1
57.1%
-146.5 · 2bk
Sep 1
57.3%
-147.5 · 2bk
Sep 1
57.3%
-147.5 · 2bk
Sep 1
57.1%
-146.5 · 2bk
Sep 1
55.3%
-130 · 3bk
Sep 2
51.9%
-120 · 3bk
Full slate — every bout
Consensus no-vig fair probability at first vs latest capture. Bouts with a single capture show the current price only — no movement claim.
| Bout | First | Latest | Fair Δ | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daiya Kira vs Carlos CanizalesBoxing · Sep 2 | 66.1%-232.5 · Aug 17 | 74.3%-370 · Sep 2 | +8.2 pts | 6 |
| Katsuki Mori vs Yoshi SugiuraBoxing · Sep 2 | 70.7%-292.5 · Sep 1 | 65.2%-225 · Sep 2 | -5.5 pts | 4 |
| Silvestre Sanchez vs Liam MccrackenUFC · Sep 2 | 57.1%-146.5 · Sep 1 | 51.9%-120 · Sep 2 | -5.2 pts | 3 |
| Modestino Rodrigues vs Brandon HolmesUFC · Sep 2 | 57.1%-150 · Aug 31 | 61.1%-177 · Sep 2 | +3.9 pts | 2 |
| Charlie Cleveland vs Gabriel LourencoUFC · Sep 2 | 38.7%+148.5 · Aug 31 | 35.5%+172 · Sep 1 | -3.2 pts | 2 |
| Takeshi Ishii vs Wilfredo MendezBoxing · Sep 2 | 77.1%-477.5 · Sep 1 | 78.9%-550 · Sep 2 | +1.8 pts | 5 |
| Adam Livingston vs Hunter SmithUFC · Sep 2 | 59.7%-163.5 · Aug 31 | 61.0%-174.5 · Sep 1 | +1.4 pts | 2 |
| Adam Darby vs Patrick RiveraUFC · Sep 2 | 23.0%+317 · Aug 31 | 22.2%+340 · Sep 2 | -0.8 pts | 3 |
| Yuga Fujiki vs Jufel SalinaBoxing · Sep 2 | 7.3%+1200 · Sep 1 | 7.3%+1200 · Sep 1 | 0.0 pts | 1 |
Showing the side that moved most per bout. 7 bout(s) moved ≥ 1.0 pt · 2 stable · 0 single-capture.
Methodology
- • Source. An archive of combat-sport prices (UFC + boxing) captured from multiple books over time. 26 snapshots across 17 days (Aug 17 – Sep 2), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen.
- • Fair probability. Each book’s two-sided price has its margin removed (no-vig), then averaged across books in probability space — never by averaging the American prices. A movement figure needs a complete two-sided price at both captures; single-sided markets show the price only.
- • Movement. The change in that fair probability between a side’s first and latest capture, in percentage points. A bout with one capture makes no movement claim.
- • What this is not. Not a pick, not a prediction, no read on why a price moved, and no result — this page does not say who won. Prices move for many reasons; it reports only that they did, and when.
Related: all archived slates · no-vig calculator · parlay vig calculator.
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