Movement archive · market facts
What the market did before September 4, 2026
Boxing — 8 bouts. Below is how each fight’s no-vig fair probability moved between its first and latest capture, with timestamps. These are market facts — what the prices did — not picks, not predictions, and no read on who won.
19 snapshots across 7 days (Aug 29 – Sep 4), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen. Latest capture Sep 4, 18:03 UTC. “Fair” = the book’s margin removed; a truer implied chance, not a forecast.
Biggest market moves
Stephane Fondjo’s fair probability moved from 17.6% (Aug 29) to 11.2% (Sep 4) — a -6.5 pts shift. Price +430 → +825 across 4 books.
Dennis Thompson’s fair probability moved from 87.5% (Sep 1) to 89.6% (Sep 4) — a +2.1 pts shift. Price -1450 → -1633.5 across 6 books.
Brooke Mullen’s fair probability moved from 90.7% (Sep 3) to 92.3% (Sep 4) — a +1.6 pts shift. Price -2500 → -2500 across 5 books.
Thabiso Mchunu’s fair probability moved from 10.5% (Sep 1) to 9.2% (Sep 4) — a -1.3 pts shift. Price +900 → +1025 across 4 books.
Kahshad Elliott’s fair probability moved from 90.2% (Sep 3) to 89.1% (Sep 4) — a -1.1 pts shift. Price -2000 → -2000 across 5 books.
Stable on this slate
These bouts barely moved (under 1.0 fair-prob point). Stated as a finding, not dressed up as movement.
- Zaquin Moses vs Angel Antonio Contreras — 6.8% / 93.2% fair, +0.1 pts
- Jhon Orobio vs Antonio Moran — 90.4% / 9.6% fair, 0.0 pts
Capture by capture — top 3 movers
Stephane Fondjo (Moreno Fendero vs Stephane Fondjo)
Aug 29
17.6%
+430 · 1bk
Aug 30
17.6%
+430 · 1bk
Aug 31
15.3%
+510 · 1bk
Sep 1
15.3%
+510 · 1bk
Sep 2
14.4%
+550 · 3bk
Sep 2
14.4%
+550 · 3bk
Sep 2
14.4%
+560 · 5bk
Sep 2
13.9%
+560 · 6bk
Sep 2
13.4%
+580 · 6bk
Sep 3
11.8%
+750 · 6bk
Sep 3
11.6%
+750 · 6bk
Sep 3
11.6%
+750 · 6bk
Sep 3
11.9%
+730.5 · 6bk
Sep 3
11.9%
+730.5 · 6bk
Sep 4
11.2%
+825 · 4bk
Dennis Thompson (Dennis Thompson vs Jose Casillas)
Sep 1
87.5%
-1450 · 1bk
Sep 2
88.8%
-1700 · 4bk
Sep 3
89.0%
-1633.5 · 6bk
Sep 3
89.0%
-1633.5 · 6bk
Sep 3
88.9%
-1633.5 · 6bk
Sep 3
88.9%
-1633.5 · 6bk
Sep 3
88.8%
-1600 · 7bk
Sep 4
88.8%
-1600 · 7bk
Sep 4
88.9%
-1600 · 7bk
Sep 4
88.9%
-1600 · 7bk
Sep 4
88.9%
-1600 · 7bk
Sep 4
89.6%
-1633.5 · 6bk
Brooke Mullen (Brooke Mullen vs Bria Miller)
Sep 3
90.7%
-2500 · 6bk
Sep 4
91.5%
-2650 · 6bk
Sep 4
91.5%
-2650 · 6bk
Sep 4
91.5%
-2650 · 6bk
Sep 4
91.5%
-2650 · 6bk
Sep 4
92.3%
-2500 · 5bk
Full slate — every bout
Consensus no-vig fair probability at first vs latest capture. Bouts with a single capture show the current price only — no movement claim.
| Bout | First | Latest | Fair Δ | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreno Fendero vs Stephane FondjoBoxing · Sep 4 | 17.6%+430 · Aug 29 | 11.2%+825 · Sep 4 | -6.5 pts | 4 |
| Dennis Thompson vs Jose CasillasBoxing · Sep 4 | 87.5%-1450 · Sep 1 | 89.6%-1633.5 · Sep 4 | +2.1 pts | 6 |
| Brooke Mullen vs Bria MillerBoxing · Sep 4 | 90.7%-2500 · Sep 3 | 92.3%-2500 · Sep 4 | +1.6 pts | 5 |
| Lenar Perez vs Thabiso MchunuBoxing · Sep 4 | 10.5%+900 · Sep 1 | 9.2%+1025 · Sep 4 | -1.3 pts | 4 |
| Kahshad Elliott vs Jean Pierre ValenciaBoxing · Sep 4 | 90.2%-2000 · Sep 3 | 89.1%-2000 · Sep 4 | -1.1 pts | 5 |
| Zaquin Moses vs Angel Antonio ContrerasBoxing · Sep 4 | 6.7%+1300 · Sep 3 | 6.8%+1200 · Sep 4 | +0.1 pts | 7 |
| Jhon Orobio vs Antonio MoranBoxing · Sep 4 | 90.4%-2500 · Aug 29 | 90.4%-2000 · Sep 4 | 0.0 pts | 6 |
| Vito Mielnicki Jr vs Austin WilliamsBoxing · Sep 4 · 1 capture | 49.9%-115 · Sep 4 | 49.9%-115 · Sep 4 | — | 6 |
Showing the side that moved most per bout. 5 bout(s) moved ≥ 1.0 pt · 2 stable · 1 single-capture.
Methodology
- • Source. An archive of combat-sport prices (UFC + boxing) captured from multiple books over time. 19 snapshots across 7 days (Aug 29 – Sep 4), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen.
- • Fair probability. Each book’s two-sided price has its margin removed (no-vig), then averaged across books in probability space — never by averaging the American prices. A movement figure needs a complete two-sided price at both captures; single-sided markets show the price only.
- • Movement. The change in that fair probability between a side’s first and latest capture, in percentage points. A bout with one capture makes no movement claim.
- • What this is not. Not a pick, not a prediction, no read on why a price moved, and no result — this page does not say who won. Prices move for many reasons; it reports only that they did, and when.
Related: all archived slates · no-vig calculator · parlay vig calculator.
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