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Movement archive · market facts

What the market did before September 5, 2026

Boxing and UFC — 29 bouts. Below is how each fight’s no-vig fair probability moved between its first and latest capture, with timestamps. These are market facts — what the prices did — not picks, not predictions, and no read on who won.

61 snapshots across 48 days (Jul 20 – Sep 5), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen. Latest capture Sep 5, 18:00 UTC. “Fair” = the book’s margin removed; a truer implied chance, not a forecast.

Biggest market moves

BoxingDavid Allen vs Thomas Carty

Thomas Carty’s fair probability moved from 27.7% (Jul 20) to 39.4% (Sep 5) — a +11.7 pts shift. Price +241.5 → +130 across 5 books.

UFCMario Pinto vs Ryan Spann

Ryan Spann’s fair probability moved from 33.3% (Aug 24) to 24.6% (Sep 5) — a -8.7 pts shift. Price +189 → +292.5 across 8 books.

UFCOumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas

Modestas Bukauskas’s fair probability moved from 38.3% (Aug 24) to 31.5% (Sep 5) — a -6.8 pts shift. Price +153 → +205 across 8 books.

BoxingVito Mielnicki Jr vs Austin Williams

Vito Mielnicki Jr’s fair probability moved from 43.4% (Jul 22) to 49.9% (Sep 5) — a +6.6 pts shift. Price +117 → -116 across 6 books.

UFCLosene Keita vs Muhammadjon Naimov

Losene Keita’s fair probability moved from 70.1% (Aug 24) to 76.3% (Sep 5) — a +6.1 pts shift. Price -270 → -387 across 7 books.

Stable on this slate

These bouts barely moved (under 1.0 fair-prob point). Stated as a finding, not dressed up as movement.

  • Nathaniel Wood vs Mairon Santos — 54.4% / 45.6% fair, -0.9 pts
  • Molly McCann vs Sylwia Doligala — 88.0% / 12.0% fair, -0.9 pts
  • Paul Ryan vs Paddy Gallagher — 84.8% / 15.2% fair, +0.8 pts
  • Michael Page vs Nursultan Ruziboev — 35.2% / 64.8% fair, -0.7 pts
  • Fares Ziam vs Axel Sola — 41.5% / 58.5% fair, -0.5 pts
  • Joe McGrail vs Matty Boreland — 16.0% / 84.0% fair, +0.5 pts
  • Pavel Andrusca vs Nathaniel Wood — 71.6% / 28.4% fair, -0.5 pts
  • Daniel Hooker vs Salahdine Parnasse — 80.5% / 19.5% fair, +0.4 pts
  • Daniil Donchenko vs Punahele Soriano — 67.4% / 32.6% fair, +0.3 pts
  • Bobbi Flood vs Jack Swallow — 95.3% / 4.7% fair, +0.1 pts
  • Zaquin Moses vs Angel Antonio Contreras — 93.7% / 6.3% fair, 0.0 pts

Capture by capture — top 3 movers

Thomas Carty (David Allen vs Thomas Carty)

Jul 20

27.7%

+241.5 · 2bk

Jul 20

27.7%

+241.5 · 2bk

Jul 21

27.7%

+241.5 · 2bk

Jul 22

27.7%

+241.5 · 2bk

Jul 23

27.7%

+241.5 · 2bk

Jul 24

27.7%

+241.5 · 2bk

Jul 25

27.7%

+241.5 · 2bk

Jul 26

27.7%

+241.5 · 2bk

Jul 27

27.7%

+241.5 · 2bk

Jul 28

27.7%

+241.5 · 2bk

Jul 29

27.7%

+241.5 · 2bk

Jul 30

27.6%

+244 · 2bk

Jul 31

27.6%

+242.5 · 2bk

Aug 1

27.6%

+242.5 · 2bk

Aug 2

27.6%

+242.5 · 2bk

Aug 3

27.6%

+242.5 · 2bk

Aug 4

27.6%

+242.5 · 2bk

Aug 5

28.3%

+235 · 2bk

Aug 5

28.3%

+235 · 2bk

Aug 6

28.3%

+235 · 2bk

Aug 7

28.3%

+235 · 2bk

Aug 8

28.3%

+235 · 2bk

Aug 9

28.3%

+235 · 2bk

Aug 10

28.3%

+235 · 2bk

Aug 11

28.3%

+235 · 2bk

Aug 12

28.8%

+226 · 4bk

Aug 13

29.5%

+218 · 4bk

Aug 14

29.5%

+218 · 4bk

Aug 15

29.5%

+218 · 4bk

Aug 16

29.9%

+215.5 · 4bk

Aug 17

29.9%

+215.5 · 4bk

Aug 18

29.8%

+220 · 5bk

Aug 19

29.8%

+220 · 5bk

Aug 20

29.8%

+220 · 5bk

Aug 21

29.8%

+220 · 5bk

Aug 22

29.9%

+215.5 · 4bk

Aug 23

29.8%

+220 · 5bk

Aug 24

29.8%

+220 · 5bk

Aug 25

30.0%

+220 · 5bk

Aug 26

30.0%

+220 · 5bk

Aug 27

29.9%

+220 · 5bk

Aug 28

29.9%

+220 · 5bk

Aug 29

29.9%

+220 · 5bk

Aug 30

29.9%

+220 · 5bk

Aug 31

29.8%

+225 · 5bk

Sep 1

30.2%

+210 · 5bk

Sep 2

30.6%

+206 · 5bk

Sep 3

31.4%

+195 · 5bk

Sep 4

33.4%

+175 · 6bk

Sep 4

33.4%

+175 · 6bk

Sep 4

33.4%

+175 · 6bk

Sep 4

33.6%

+174.5 · 6bk

Sep 4

33.2%

+175 · 5bk

Sep 5

33.5%

+175 · 5bk

Sep 5

32.4%

+199 · 5bk

Sep 5

32.3%

+200 · 5bk

Sep 5

33.5%

+175 · 5bk

Sep 5

39.4%

+130 · 5bk

Ryan Spann (Mario Pinto vs Ryan Spann)

Aug 24

33.3%

+189 · 1bk

Aug 25

30.9%

+210.5 · 2bk

Aug 26

30.8%

+210.5 · 4bk

Aug 27

30.8%

+210 · 5bk

Aug 28

31.2%

+205 · 5bk

Aug 29

31.5%

+205 · 5bk

Aug 30

31.1%

+210 · 8bk

Aug 31

30.5%

+217.5 · 8bk

Sep 1

29.5%

+225 · 8bk

Sep 2

29.5%

+225 · 8bk

Sep 3

28.0%

+242.5 · 8bk

Sep 3

27.6%

+250 · 8bk

Sep 4

26.8%

+260 · 7bk

Sep 4

26.8%

+260 · 7bk

Sep 4

26.8%

+260 · 7bk

Sep 4

26.8%

+260 · 7bk

Sep 4

26.1%

+267.5 · 8bk

Sep 5

25.8%

+275 · 7bk

Sep 5

25.9%

+275 · 8bk

Sep 5

25.9%

+275 · 8bk

Sep 5

25.8%

+277 · 8bk

Sep 5

24.6%

+292.5 · 8bk

Modestas Bukauskas (Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas)

Aug 24

38.3%

+153 · 1bk

Aug 25

38.3%

+151.5 · 2bk

Aug 26

37.9%

+154 · 4bk

Aug 27

38.0%

+154 · 5bk

Aug 28

38.0%

+154 · 5bk

Aug 29

38.0%

+154 · 5bk

Aug 30

37.9%

+154 · 8bk

Aug 31

36.6%

+164.5 · 8bk

Sep 1

35.6%

+170 · 8bk

Sep 2

35.5%

+170 · 8bk

Sep 3

33.8%

+189 · 8bk

Sep 3

33.4%

+190 · 8bk

Sep 4

33.3%

+190 · 7bk

Sep 4

33.0%

+190 · 7bk

Sep 4

33.0%

+190 · 7bk

Sep 4

33.1%

+190 · 7bk

Sep 4

32.9%

+190 · 8bk

Sep 5

32.2%

+198 · 7bk

Sep 5

32.2%

+196.5 · 8bk

Sep 5

32.2%

+196.5 · 8bk

Sep 5

32.0%

+200 · 8bk

Sep 5

31.6%

+205 · 8bk

Full slate — every bout

Consensus no-vig fair probability at first vs latest capture. Bouts with a single capture show the current price only — no movement claim.

BoutFirstLatestFair ΔBooks
David Allen vs Thomas CartyBoxing · Sep 527.7%+241.5 · Jul 2039.4%+130 · Sep 5+11.7 pts5
Mario Pinto vs Ryan SpannUFC · Sep 533.3%+189 · Aug 2424.6%+292.5 · Sep 5-8.7 pts8
Oumar Sy vs Modestas BukauskasUFC · Sep 538.3%+153 · Aug 2431.5%+205 · Sep 5-6.8 pts8
Vito Mielnicki Jr vs Austin WilliamsBoxing · Sep 543.4%+117 · Jul 2249.9%-116 · Sep 5+6.6 pts6
Losene Keita vs Muhammadjon NaimovUFC · Sep 570.1%-270 · Aug 2476.3%-387 · Sep 5+6.1 pts7
Matthieu Letho vs Luis Felipe DiasUFC · Sep 545.7%+110 · Aug 2551.9%-118 · Sep 5+6.1 pts2
Nora Cornolle vs Klaudia SygułaUFC · Sep 554.3%-130 · Aug 2548.7%-104 · Sep 5-5.6 pts7
Matthieu Duclos vs Luis Felipe DiasUFC · Sep 553.9%-128 · Aug 2548.7%-104 · Sep 5-5.2 pts6
Sofia Montenegro vs Delphine BenouaichUFC · Sep 560.3%-170 · Aug 2755.8%-137 · Sep 5-4.6 pts7
Fabia Sintes vs Michael AljaroujUFC · Sep 557.3%-150 · Aug 2753.1%-125 · Sep 5-4.2 pts8
Andy Ruiz Jr vs Damian KnybaBoxing · Sep 528.5%+234 · Jul 2232.2%+192.5 · Sep 5+3.8 pts6
Alan Abel Chaves vs Eridson GarciaBoxing · Sep 518.4%+391 · Aug 3014.8%+570 · Sep 5-3.6 pts4
Kurtis Campbell vs Trevor PeekUFC · Sep 573.9%-333 · Aug 2476.7%-402.5 · Sep 5+2.8 pts8
Khamzat Chimaev vs Tyron WoodleyUFC · Sep 57.3%+1200 · Sep 34.6%+2000 · Sep 5-2.7 pts1
Paddy Donovan vs Tyrone McKennaBoxing · Sep 510.8%+783.5 · Jul 208.9%+900 · Sep 5-1.9 pts5
Taylor Bevan vs Emmet BrennanBoxing · Sep 524.6%+285 · Jul 2022.8%+310 · Sep 5-1.8 pts3
Morgan Charriere vs Felipe LimaUFC · Sep 563.8%-193 · Aug 2465.3%-212.5 · Sep 5+1.4 pts8
Katie Taylor vs Flora PiliBoxing · Sep 590.9%-2000 · Jul 2092.1%-2500 · Sep 5+1.2 pts7
Nathaniel Wood vs Mairon SantosUFC · Sep 555.3%-135 · Aug 2454.4%-134 · Aug 30-0.9 pts1
Molly McCann vs Sylwia DoligalaBoxing · Sep 588.9%-1600 · Sep 288.0%-1250 · Sep 5-0.9 pts5
Paul Ryan vs Paddy GallagherBoxing · Sep 584.1%-800 · Sep 384.8%-866.5 · Sep 5+0.8 pts4
Michael Page vs Nursultan RuziboevUFC · Sep 535.9%+170 · Aug 2435.2%+174.5 · Sep 5-0.7 pts6
Fares Ziam vs Axel SolaUFC · Sep 542.0%+130 · Aug 2441.5%+130 · Sep 5-0.5 pts7
Joe McGrail vs Matty BorelandBoxing · Sep 515.5%+500 · Sep 116.0%+500 · Sep 5+0.5 pts5
Pavel Andrusca vs Nathaniel WoodUFC · Sep 572.1%-310 · Sep 371.6%-295 · Sep 5-0.5 pts8
Daniel Hooker vs Salahdine ParnasseUFC · Sep 580.1%-500 · Aug 2480.5%-512.5 · Sep 5+0.4 pts6
Daniil Donchenko vs Punahele SorianoUFC · Sep 567.1%-230 · Aug 2467.4%-234 · Sep 5+0.3 pts8
Bobbi Flood vs Jack SwallowBoxing · Sep 595.2%-15000 · Sep 395.3%-10000 · Sep 5+0.1 pts2
Zaquin Moses vs Angel Antonio ContrerasBoxing · Sep 593.6%-5000 · Sep 493.7%-10000 · Sep 50.0 pts4

Showing the side that moved most per bout. 18 bout(s) moved ≥ 1.0 pt · 11 stable · 0 single-capture.

Methodology

  • • Source. An archive of combat-sport prices (UFC + boxing) captured from multiple books over time. 61 snapshots across 48 days (Jul 20 – Sep 5), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen.
  • • Fair probability. Each book’s two-sided price has its margin removed (no-vig), then averaged across books in probability space — never by averaging the American prices. A movement figure needs a complete two-sided price at both captures; single-sided markets show the price only.
  • • Movement. The change in that fair probability between a side’s first and latest capture, in percentage points. A bout with one capture makes no movement claim.
  • • What this is not. Not a pick, not a prediction, no read on why a price moved, and no result — this page does not say who won. Prices move for many reasons; it reports only that they did, and when.

Related: all archived slates · no-vig calculator · parlay vig calculator.

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