Movement archive · market facts
What the market did before September 8, 2026
UFC — 4 bouts. Below is how each fight’s no-vig fair probability moved between its first and latest capture, with timestamps. These are market facts — what the prices did — not picks, not predictions, and no read on who won.
11 snapshots across 3 days (Sep 6 – Sep 8), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen. Latest capture Sep 8, 18:00 UTC. “Fair” = the book’s margin removed; a truer implied chance, not a forecast.
Biggest market moves
Won Il Kwon’s fair probability moved from 50.0% (Sep 6) to 55.6% (Sep 8) — a +5.6 pts shift. Price -110 → -139 across 3 books.
Quentin Pasley’s fair probability moved from 35.4% (Sep 7) to 40.9% (Sep 8) — a +5.5 pts shift. Price +174 → +136 across 2 books.
Isaac Moreno’s fair probability moved from 57.1% (Sep 7) to 54.1% (Sep 8) — a -3.0 pts shift. Price -145 → -128.5 across 2 books.
Christian Natividad’s fair probability moved from 70.0% (Sep 7) to 72.3% (Sep 8) — a +2.3 pts shift. Price -267 → -300 across 3 books.
Capture by capture — top 3 movers
Won Il Kwon (Won Il Kwon vs Apollo Gomes)
Sep 6
50.0%
-110 · 1bk
Sep 7
53.3%
-125 · 1bk
Sep 7
52.2%
-121.5 · 2bk
Sep 7
52.2%
-121.5 · 2bk
Sep 7
52.2%
-121.5 · 2bk
Sep 7
53.0%
-125 · 2bk
Sep 8
54.0%
-128 · 2bk
Sep 8
54.9%
-132.5 · 2bk
Sep 8
54.9%
-132.5 · 2bk
Sep 8
54.9%
-132.5 · 2bk
Sep 8
55.6%
-139 · 3bk
Quentin Pasley (Quentin Pasley vs Arlind Berisha)
Sep 7
35.4%
+174 · 1bk
Sep 7
35.7%
+169 · 2bk
Sep 7
35.7%
+169 · 2bk
Sep 7
35.7%
+169 · 2bk
Sep 7
38.9%
+147 · 2bk
Sep 8
40.0%
+140.5 · 2bk
Sep 8
40.9%
+136 · 2bk
Sep 8
40.9%
+136 · 2bk
Isaac Moreno (Isaac Moreno vs Reginaldo Junior)
Sep 7
57.1%
-145 · 1bk
Sep 7
56.5%
-144 · 2bk
Sep 7
56.5%
-144 · 2bk
Sep 7
56.5%
-144 · 2bk
Sep 7
56.0%
-141.5 · 2bk
Sep 8
54.2%
-131 · 2bk
Sep 8
54.1%
-128.5 · 2bk
Sep 8
54.1%
-128.5 · 2bk
Full slate — every bout
Consensus no-vig fair probability at first vs latest capture. Bouts with a single capture show the current price only — no movement claim.
| Bout | First | Latest | Fair Δ | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Won Il Kwon vs Apollo GomesUFC · Sep 8 | 50.0%-110 · Sep 6 | 55.6%-139 · Sep 8 | +5.6 pts | 3 |
| Quentin Pasley vs Arlind BerishaUFC · Sep 8 | 35.4%+174 · Sep 7 | 40.9%+136 · Sep 8 | +5.5 pts | 2 |
| Isaac Moreno vs Reginaldo JuniorUFC · Sep 8 | 57.1%-145 · Sep 7 | 54.1%-128.5 · Sep 8 | -3.0 pts | 2 |
| Colton Loud vs Christian NatividadUFC · Sep 8 | 70.0%-267 · Sep 7 | 72.3%-300 · Sep 8 | +2.3 pts | 3 |
Showing the side that moved most per bout. 4 bout(s) moved ≥ 1.0 pt · 0 stable · 0 single-capture.
Methodology
- • Source. An archive of combat-sport prices (UFC + boxing) captured from multiple books over time. 11 snapshots across 3 days (Sep 6 – Sep 8), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen.
- • Fair probability. Each book’s two-sided price has its margin removed (no-vig), then averaged across books in probability space — never by averaging the American prices. A movement figure needs a complete two-sided price at both captures; single-sided markets show the price only.
- • Movement. The change in that fair probability between a side’s first and latest capture, in percentage points. A bout with one capture makes no movement claim.
- • What this is not. Not a pick, not a prediction, no read on why a price moved, and no result — this page does not say who won. Prices move for many reasons; it reports only that they did, and when.
Related: all archived slates · no-vig calculator · parlay vig calculator.
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